{ "schemaVersion": 1, "version": "0.1.0", "status": "work-in-progress", "releaseDate": "2026-08-20", "dataThrough": "2026-06", "question": "Does the June increase in German manufacturing orders represent a broad recovery?", "conclusion": "The June increase was narrow: orders excluding major transactions and aggregate real turnover both fell, while sector gains were concentrated.", "methodology": { "indexBase": "2021=100; chart paths rebased to January 2019=100", "adjustment": "X13 JDemetra+ calendar- and seasonally-adjusted volume indices", "largeOrderImpulse": "Monthly log growth in total orders minus monthly log growth in orders excluding major transactions.", "momentum": "Three-on-three growth compares adjacent three-month means; six-month growth compares three-month means six months apart and annualizes the log change; annual growth compares three-month means twelve months apart.", "volatility": "Annualized standard deviation of monthly log changes over the preceding twelve months.", "executionProxy": "Within-sector z-score of monthly new-order growth minus the z-score of monthly turnover growth, standardized over February 2015 to June 2026.", "turnoverModel": "Future one-, three-, and six-month sector turnover growth on standardized aggregate broad-order growth, the large-order impulse, and energy-supply producer-price growth, estimated for 2015-2019 and 2021-2026 with Newey-West HAC intervals.", "boundary": "The historical execution and predictive tests use the two matched sectors from the 19 August publication. The five-sector static cross-section and aggregate turnover cover January 2025 to June 2026. A registered GENESIS extraction is required for a full 2015-2026 aggregate turnover and revision-vintage panel." }, "headline": { "period": "2026-06", "totalOrdersMoM": 3.115, "broadOrdersMoM": -0.46, "largeOrderImpulse": 3.528, "aggregateTurnoverMoM": -1.3, "documentedMayRevision": { "firstEstimate": 1.9, "revisedEstimate": 0.3, "revision": -1.6 } }, "monthly": [ { "period": "2015-01", "totalOrders": 89.5, "ordersExcludingMajor": 91.3, "totalIndexed2019": 95.518, "broadIndexed2019": 95.803, "totalMoM": null, "broadMoM": null, "largeOrderImpulse": null, "totalThreeOnThree": null, "broadThreeOnThree": null, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": null, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": null, "totalYoY": null, "broadYoY": null, "totalVolatility": null, "broadVolatility": null }, { "period": "2015-02", "totalOrders": 88.2, "ordersExcludingMajor": 90.3, "totalIndexed2019": 94.13, "broadIndexed2019": 94.753, "totalMoM": -1.453, "broadMoM": -1.095, "largeOrderImpulse": -0.362, "totalThreeOnThree": null, "broadThreeOnThree": null, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": null, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": null, "totalYoY": null, "broadYoY": null, "totalVolatility": null, "broadVolatility": null }, { "period": "2015-03", "totalOrders": 88.9, "ordersExcludingMajor": 89.4, "totalIndexed2019": 94.877, "broadIndexed2019": 93.809, "totalMoM": 0.794, "broadMoM": -0.997, "largeOrderImpulse": 1.792, "totalThreeOnThree": null, "broadThreeOnThree": null, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": null, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": null, "totalYoY": null, "broadYoY": null, "totalVolatility": null, "broadVolatility": null }, { "period": "2015-04", "totalOrders": 90.4, "ordersExcludingMajor": 92, "totalIndexed2019": 96.478, "broadIndexed2019": 96.537, "totalMoM": 1.687, "broadMoM": 2.908, "largeOrderImpulse": -1.194, "totalThreeOnThree": null, "broadThreeOnThree": null, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": null, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": null, "totalYoY": null, "broadYoY": null, "totalVolatility": null, "broadVolatility": null }, { "period": "2015-05", "totalOrders": 89.4, "ordersExcludingMajor": 91.9, "totalIndexed2019": 95.411, "broadIndexed2019": 96.432, "totalMoM": -1.106, "broadMoM": -0.109, "largeOrderImpulse": -1.004, "totalThreeOnThree": null, "broadThreeOnThree": null, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": null, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": null, "totalYoY": null, "broadYoY": null, "totalVolatility": null, "broadVolatility": null }, { "period": "2015-06", "totalOrders": 91.9, "ordersExcludingMajor": 92.8, "totalIndexed2019": 98.079, "broadIndexed2019": 97.377, "totalMoM": 2.796, "broadMoM": 0.979, "largeOrderImpulse": 1.783, "totalThreeOnThree": 1.895, "broadThreeOnThree": 2.082, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": null, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": null, "totalYoY": null, "broadYoY": null, "totalVolatility": null, "broadVolatility": null }, { "period": "2015-07", "totalOrders": 90.9, "ordersExcludingMajor": 91.6, "totalIndexed2019": 97.012, "broadIndexed2019": 96.118, "totalMoM": -1.088, "broadMoM": -1.293, "largeOrderImpulse": 0.207, "totalThreeOnThree": 1.742, "broadThreeOnThree": 1.679, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": null, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": null, "totalYoY": null, "broadYoY": null, "totalVolatility": null, "broadVolatility": null }, { "period": "2015-08", "totalOrders": 88.9, "ordersExcludingMajor": 89.5, "totalIndexed2019": 94.877, "broadIndexed2019": 93.914, "totalMoM": -2.2, "broadMoM": -2.293, "largeOrderImpulse": 0.094, "totalThreeOnThree": 1.11, "broadThreeOnThree": 0.219, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": null, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": null, "totalYoY": null, "broadYoY": null, "totalVolatility": null, "broadVolatility": null }, { "period": "2015-09", "totalOrders": 87.7, "ordersExcludingMajor": 89.2, "totalIndexed2019": 93.597, "broadIndexed2019": 93.599, "totalMoM": -1.35, "broadMoM": -0.335, "largeOrderImpulse": -1.023, "totalThreeOnThree": -1.558, "broadThreeOnThree": -2.34, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": 0.674, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": -0.517, "totalYoY": null, "broadYoY": null, "totalVolatility": null, "broadVolatility": null }, { "period": "2015-10", "totalOrders": 88.1, "ordersExcludingMajor": 90.1, "totalIndexed2019": 94.023, "broadIndexed2019": 94.544, "totalMoM": 0.456, "broadMoM": 1.009, "largeOrderImpulse": -0.549, "totalThreeOnThree": -2.794, "broadThreeOnThree": -2.752, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": -2.104, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": -2.146, "totalYoY": null, "broadYoY": null, "totalVolatility": null, "broadVolatility": null }, { "period": "2015-11", "totalOrders": 89.2, "ordersExcludingMajor": 90, "totalIndexed2019": 95.197, "broadIndexed2019": 94.439, "totalMoM": 1.249, "broadMoM": -0.111, "largeOrderImpulse": 1.352, "totalThreeOnThree": -2.497, "broadThreeOnThree": -1.694, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": -2.773, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": -2.949, "totalYoY": null, "broadYoY": null, "totalVolatility": null, "broadVolatility": null }, { "period": "2015-12", "totalOrders": 87.5, "ordersExcludingMajor": 90.3, "totalIndexed2019": 93.383, "broadIndexed2019": 94.753, "totalMoM": -1.906, "broadMoM": 0.333, "largeOrderImpulse": -2.257, "totalThreeOnThree": -1.014, "broadThreeOnThree": 0.037, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": -5.145, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": -4.606, "totalYoY": null, "broadYoY": null, "totalVolatility": null, "broadVolatility": null }, { "period": "2016-01", "totalOrders": 89.7, "ordersExcludingMajor": 91.4, "totalIndexed2019": 95.731, "broadIndexed2019": 95.908, "totalMoM": 2.514, "broadMoM": 1.218, "largeOrderImpulse": 1.272, "totalThreeOnThree": 0.64, "broadThreeOnThree": 1.073, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": -4.308, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": -3.358, "totalYoY": null, "broadYoY": null, "totalVolatility": 6.092, "broadVolatility": 4.807 }, { "period": "2016-02", "totalOrders": 89, "ordersExcludingMajor": 91.5, "totalIndexed2019": 94.984, "broadIndexed2019": 96.013, "totalMoM": -0.78, "broadMoM": 0.109, "largeOrderImpulse": -0.893, "totalThreeOnThree": 0.452, "broadThreeOnThree": 1.438, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": -4.09, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": -0.512, "totalYoY": null, "broadYoY": null, "totalVolatility": 5.947, "broadVolatility": 4.651 }, { "period": "2016-03", "totalOrders": 90.7, "ordersExcludingMajor": 90.9, "totalIndexed2019": 96.798, "broadIndexed2019": 95.383, "totalMoM": 1.91, "broadMoM": -0.656, "largeOrderImpulse": 2.55, "totalThreeOnThree": 1.722, "broadThreeOnThree": 1.25, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": 1.416, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": 2.573, "totalYoY": 1.045, "broadYoY": 1.028, "totalVolatility": 6.189, "broadVolatility": 4.574 }, { "period": "2016-04", "totalOrders": 89.9, "ordersExcludingMajor": 90.4, "totalIndexed2019": 95.945, "broadIndexed2019": 94.858, "totalMoM": -0.882, "broadMoM": -0.55, "largeOrderImpulse": -0.334, "totalThreeOnThree": 1.194, "broadThreeOnThree": 0.404, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": 3.668, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": 2.954, "totalYoY": 0.782, "broadYoY": 0.404, "totalVolatility": 6.037, "broadVolatility": 3.501 }, { "period": "2016-05", "totalOrders": 89.6, "ordersExcludingMajor": 91.2, "totalIndexed2019": 95.624, "broadIndexed2019": 95.698, "totalMoM": -0.334, "broadMoM": 0.885, "largeOrderImpulse": -1.215, "totalThreeOnThree": 1.491, "broadThreeOnThree": -0.257, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": 3.887, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": 2.363, "totalYoY": 0.557, "broadYoY": -0.293, "totalVolatility": 5.936, "broadVolatility": 3.65 }, { "period": "2016-06", "totalOrders": 89.6, "ordersExcludingMajor": 92.1, "totalIndexed2019": 95.624, "broadIndexed2019": 96.642, "totalMoM": 0, "broadMoM": 0.987, "largeOrderImpulse": -0.982, "totalThreeOnThree": -0.111, "broadThreeOnThree": -0.037, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": 3.222, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": 2.426, "totalYoY": -0.962, "broadYoY": -1.09, "totalVolatility": 5.134, "broadVolatility": 3.652 }, { "period": "2016-07", "totalOrders": 90.2, "ordersExcludingMajor": 90.7, "totalIndexed2019": 96.265, "broadIndexed2019": 95.173, "totalMoM": 0.67, "broadMoM": -1.52, "largeOrderImpulse": 2.199, "totalThreeOnThree": -0.074, "broadThreeOnThree": 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"2017-10", "totalOrders": 99.2, "ordersExcludingMajor": 99.6, "totalIndexed2019": 105.87, "broadIndexed2019": 104.512, "totalMoM": 0.916, "broadMoM": -0.599, "largeOrderImpulse": 1.512, "totalThreeOnThree": 4.149, "broadThreeOnThree": 3.22, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": 7.592, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": 9.775, "totalYoY": 8.035, "broadYoY": 7.585, "totalVolatility": 9.921, "broadVolatility": 4.16 }, { "period": "2017-11", "totalOrders": 99, "ordersExcludingMajor": 101.6, "totalIndexed2019": 105.656, "broadIndexed2019": 106.611, "totalMoM": -0.202, "broadMoM": 2.008, "largeOrderImpulse": -2.19, "totalThreeOnThree": 3.082, "broadThreeOnThree": 2.18, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": 9.461, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": 10.419, "totalYoY": 8.367, "broadYoY": 7.544, "totalVolatility": 9.638, "broadVolatility": 4.184 }, { "period": "2017-12", "totalOrders": 101.7, "ordersExcludingMajor": 102.1, "totalIndexed2019": 108.538, "broadIndexed2019": 107.135, "totalMoM": 2.727, "broadMoM": 0.492, "largeOrderImpulse": 2.2, "totalThreeOnThree": 3.047, "broadThreeOnThree": 1.796, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": 11.106, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": 10.491, "totalYoY": 7.727, "broadYoY": 7.495, "totalVolatility": 9.147, "broadVolatility": 4.186 }, { "period": "2018-01", "totalOrders": 97.3, "ordersExcludingMajor": 98.8, "totalIndexed2019": 103.842, "broadIndexed2019": 103.673, "totalMoM": -4.326, "broadMoM": -3.232, "largeOrderImpulse": -1.137, "totalThreeOnThree": 0.91, "broadThreeOnThree": 0.897, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": 10.117, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": 8.233, "totalYoY": 7.923, "broadYoY": 7.765, "totalVolatility": 8.782, "broadVolatility": 5.453 }, { "period": "2018-02", "totalOrders": 98.5, "ordersExcludingMajor": 98.7, "totalIndexed2019": 105.123, "broadIndexed2019": 103.568, "totalMoM": 1.233, "broadMoM": -0.101, "largeOrderImpulse": 1.327, "totalThreeOnThree": 0.337, "broadThreeOnThree": -0.599, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": 6.838, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": 3.162, "totalYoY": 6.17, "broadYoY": 6.303, "totalVolatility": 7.073, "broadVolatility": 5.106 }, { "period": "2018-03", "totalOrders": 96.8, "ordersExcludingMajor": 99.7, "totalIndexed2019": 103.308, "broadIndexed2019": 104.617, "totalMoM": -1.726, "broadMoM": 1.013, "largeOrderImpulse": -2.749, "totalThreeOnThree": -2.464, "broadThreeOnThree": -2.032, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": 1.165, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": -0.471, "totalYoY": 4.724, "broadYoY": 4.931, "totalVolatility": 7.225, "broadVolatility": 5.137 }, { "period": "2018-04", "totalOrders": 96.3, "ordersExcludingMajor": 98, "totalIndexed2019": 102.775, "broadIndexed2019": 102.833, "totalMoM": -0.517, "broadMoM": -1.705, "largeOrderImpulse": 1.202, "totalThreeOnThree": -2.171, "broadThreeOnThree": -2.037, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": -2.522, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": -2.281, "totalYoY": 2.535, "broadYoY": 3.747, "totalVolatility": 7.169, "broadVolatility": 5.516 }, { "period": "2018-05", "totalOrders": 97.8, "ordersExcludingMajor": 100, "totalIndexed2019": 104.376, "broadIndexed2019": 104.932, "totalMoM": 1.558, "broadMoM": 2.041, "largeOrderImpulse": -0.475, "totalThreeOnThree": -2.243, "broadThreeOnThree": -0.636, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": -3.814, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": -2.47, "totalYoY": 2.824, "broadYoY": 3.974, "totalVolatility": 7.017, "broadVolatility": 5.794 }, { "period": "2018-06", "totalOrders": 95, "ordersExcludingMajor": 97.9, "totalIndexed2019": 101.387, "broadIndexed2019": 102.728, "totalMoM": -2.863, "broadMoM": -2.1, "largeOrderImpulse": -0.782, "totalThreeOnThree": -1.203, "broadThreeOnThree": -0.438, "totalSixMonthAnnualized": -7.335, "broadSixMonthAnnualized": -4.94, "totalYoY": 1.886, "broadYoY": 2.776, "totalVolatility": 7.624, "broadVolatility": 6.054 }, { "period": "2018-07", "totalOrders": 94.9, "ordersExcludingMajor": 96, "totalIndexed2019": 101.281, "broadIndexed2019": 100.735, "totalMoM": -0.105, "broadMoM": -1.941, "largeOrderImpulse": 1.855, "totalThreeOnThree": -1.346, 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