{ "schemaVersion": 1, "version": "0.1.0", "status": "work-in-progress", "releaseDate": "2026-08-19", "dataThrough": "2026-06", "question": "Did German manufacturing backlogs become less predictive of production after 2021?", "methodology": { "indexBase": "2021=100", "adjustment": "X13 JDemetra+ calendar- and seasonally-adjusted indices", "smoothing": "Three-month moving averages before log-growth transformations", "conversionGap": "Within-sector z-score of annual order-stock growth minus the z-score of annual production growth, standardized over 2016-03 to 2026-06.", "forecastModel": "Future one- to six-month production growth on standardized annual order-stock growth, new-orders growth, and energy-supply producer-price growth, estimated separately for 2016-2019 and 2021-2026.", "uncertainty": "Newey-West HAC intervals use the forecast horizon as the lag length. Results are predictive associations, not causal effects.", "rangeDefinition": "Destatis order range equals current order stock divided by average turnover over the preceding twelve months." }, "sectors": [ { "id": "electronics", "code": "WZ08-26", "label": "Computer, electronic and optical products", "shortLabel": "Electronics", "observations": [ { "period": "2015-01", "newOrders": 64.9, "turnover": 75.6, "production": 83.8, "orderRange": null, "orderStock": 53.5, "energyPrice": 83.7, "newOrdersMa3": null, "productionMa3": null, "orderStockMa3": null, "newOrdersYoY": null, "productionYoY": null, "orderStockYoY": null, "energyPriceYoY": null, "conversionGap": null }, { "period": "2015-02", "newOrders": 66.9, "turnover": 77.4, "production": 85.7, "orderRange": null, "orderStock": 53.7, "energyPrice": 83.5, "newOrdersMa3": null, "productionMa3": null, "orderStockMa3": null, "newOrdersYoY": null, "productionYoY": null, "orderStockYoY": null, "energyPriceYoY": null, "conversionGap": null }, 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