# Methods

The publication projects validated releases from the Regional Capacity and Political Extremes research package into a compact, site-owned dataset. It uses 396 stable German Kreise. Official 2014, 2019 and 2024 European-election rows are harmonized through four additive merger groups. Party support is votes divided by valid votes.

Three 2022–2023 capacity changes remain separate: working-age population (20–79), lower aging pressure (the old-to-young ratio with reversed orientation), and employment per resident. The published estimates use OLS within Länder, equal region weights, CRV3 standard errors, 9,999 null-imposed wild-cluster replications and Romano–Wolf family adjustment.

The East non-city and West medians are descriptive and unweighted. Berlin is separate. The analysis identifies neither a causal effect of demography or capacity on AfD support nor any effect of AfD policy on future regional capacity. Public-service withdrawal is not measured in this release.