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124.3, "minimumDailyMeanCm": 97.6, "daysBelowGlw": 0, "observedDays": 31, "productionStatus": "observed", "predictedHighLowGapPp": -0.03, "industrialProductionIndex": 94.45, "production": [ { "sector": "food-beverages-tobacco", "productionIndex": 100.61, "productionYoY": 3.866 }, { "sector": "textiles-apparel-leather", "productionIndex": 77.48, "productionYoY": -10.282 }, { "sector": "wood-paper-print", "productionIndex": 75.93, "productionYoY": -2.004 }, { "sector": "refined-petroleum", "productionIndex": 116.7, "productionYoY": 19.006 }, { "sector": "chemicals-pharma-plastics", "productionIndex": 85.92, "productionYoY": 0.336 }, { "sector": "non-metallic-minerals", "productionIndex": 77.8, "productionYoY": -1.404 }, { "sector": "basic-fabricated-metals", "productionIndex": 87.36, "productionYoY": 0.33 }, { "sector": "machinery-electronics", "productionIndex": 90.99, "productionYoY": -0.026 }, { "sector": "transport-equipment", "productionIndex": 104.86, "productionYoY": -6.095 } ] }, { "period": "2026-06", "meanCm": 115.3, "minimumDailyMeanCm": 80.1, "daysBelowGlw": 0, "observedDays": 30, "productionStatus": "observed", "predictedHighLowGapPp": -0.03, "industrialProductionIndex": 94.72, "production": [ { "sector": "food-beverages-tobacco", "productionIndex": 99.66, "productionYoY": 2.067 }, { "sector": "textiles-apparel-leather", "productionIndex": 79.69, "productionYoY": -4.864 }, { "sector": "wood-paper-print", "productionIndex": 74.88, "productionYoY": -4.087 }, { "sector": "refined-petroleum", "productionIndex": 116.7, "productionYoY": 21.844 }, { "sector": "chemicals-pharma-plastics", "productionIndex": 85.39, "productionYoY": 0.998 }, { "sector": "non-metallic-minerals", "productionIndex": 75.7, "productionYoY": -1.833 }, { "sector": "basic-fabricated-metals", "productionIndex": 85.96, "productionYoY": 0.072 }, { "sector": "machinery-electronics", "productionIndex": 89.26, "productionYoY": -1.553 }, { "sector": "transport-equipment", "productionIndex": 109.2, "productionYoY": -0.158 } ] }, { "period": "2026-07", "meanCm": 66.6, "minimumDailyMeanCm": 26.8, "daysBelowGlw": 19, "observedDays": 31, "productionStatus": "not-yet-released", "predictedHighLowGapPp": 0.26, "industrialProductionIndex": null, "production": [] }, { "period": "2026-08", "meanCm": 20.4, "minimumDailyMeanCm": 6.4, "daysBelowGlw": 22, "observedDays": 22, "productionStatus": "not-yet-released", "predictedHighLowGapPp": 1.28, "industrialProductionIndex": null, "production": [] } ], "methods": { "waterShock": "Daily mean Kaub water level below 77 cm is converted to a proportional shortfall and squared before monthly aggregation. The primary regressor averages current and prior-month stress.", "exposure": "Mean German inland-waterway tonnage for the matched NST 2007 goods family in 2017-2019 divided by mapped sector turnover in 2019; log-transformed and standardized across nine industry families.", "outcome": "Monthly seasonally and calendar-adjusted production index, 2021=100. Two-digit NACE series are combined with fixed 2019 turnover weights; the regression outcome is annual log growth in percentage points.", "model": "Balanced sector-by-month panel with sector and month fixed effects. Primary sample: January 2011-December 2019. Uncertainty uses Newey-West HAC standard errors with six monthly lags on period-level score sums.", "monitoringOutput": "Nine-family production index, fixed weighted by 2019 sector turnover on the source series scale (2021=100). July and August remain null until official production is released.", "caveat": "The exposure proxy maps transported goods to producing industries and does not observe establishment location, inventories, rail substitution, freight prices, or energy intensity. The estimate is a disciplined prototype, not a final causal estimate." }, "diagnostics": { "rawWaterObservations": 583448, "dailyWaterObservations": 6078, "monthlyWaterObservations": 200, "productionObservations": 1782, "sourceManifestSha256": "1e3894f503b9ae9065acb62fc528016a93ed5d5690d17bb45b8810d304bc5808" } }