{ "metadata": { "title": "Solow After the Machine II: The Bottleneck Has Moved", "sourceWorkbook": "BEA-BLS-industry-level-production-account-1997-2024_Solow_Residual.xlsx", "sourceReleaseDate": "2026-04-27", "researchCutoff": "2026-08-05", "marketIndustryCount": 61, "evidenceLabels": { "descriptive": "Reconstructed directly from the workbook or official accounts.", "associational": "Correlations and regime maps; no causal interpretation.", "causal": "Reserved for external research designs that identify adoption effects.", "projection": "Forward-looking scenarios kept separate from observed outcomes." } }, "summary": { "source_workbook": "BEA-BLS-industry-level-production-account-1997-2024_Solow_Residual.xlsx", "source_release_date": "2026-04-27", "market_industries": 61, "workbook_headline": { "digital_capital_growth_pct": 7.828994516013229, "tfp_growth_pct": 0.5653804329141859, "raw_gap_pp": 7.263614083099043, "baseline_tfp_growth_pct": 0.29129905255394406, "tfp_acceleration_pp": 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"annualPercentOrPoints": 0.680946820422514 }, { "metric": "Official digital-capital bundle contribution", "annualDecimal": 0.0063, "unitFamily": "contribution", "annualPercentOrPoints": 0.63 }, { "metric": "Official TFP contribution", "annualDecimal": 0.006, "unitFamily": "contribution", "annualPercentOrPoints": 0.6 } ], "officialContributions": [ { "measure": "Capital input", "percentagePointsPerYear": 0.95 }, { "measure": "Labor input", "percentagePointsPerYear": 1.13 }, { "measure": "TFP", "percentagePointsPerYear": 0.6 }, { "measure": "Digital capital bundle (IT + R&D + software)", "percentagePointsPerYear": 0.63 } ], "timePath": [ { "year": 1997, "digitalCapital": 27.86451042214756, "tfp": 94.57952835332112, "laborProductivity": 71.91203720551869, "grossOutput": 63.165710640299295, "energy": 100.93336188417528 }, { "year": 1998, "digitalCapital": 31.309644414684172, "tfp": 94.48144739034429, "laborProductivity": 74.12346633915253, "grossOutput": 66.61578789248539, "energy": 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0.08846081845501019, "hoursCagr": 0.08665699637689617, "laborProductivityCagr": 0.0016600008171521186, "digitalEndpointCagr": 0.06296573549202371, "digitalTornqvistCagr": 0.05291757095877192, "digitalContributionProxy": 0.0010203394305274885, "valueAddedEnd": 218470, "valueAdded2024": 218470, "market": true, "tfpAccelerationVs2005To2019": -0.0017145679158714344, "digitalShareCapitalCompensation2024": 0.03863906951186006, "regime": "Fast K + positive TFP" }, { "industry": "Food services and drinking places", "tfpCagr": -0.005349885541416688, "softwareCagr": 0.09181776291533938, "rdCagr": 0.12584220141170888, "itCagr": 0.03360187044293306, "otherCapitalCagr": 0.006475763976864002, "energyCagr": 0.05358306097598753, "grossOutputCagr": 0.04021010049382623, "hoursCagr": 0.03150809592910808, "laborProductivityCagr": 0.0084371574680977, "digitalEndpointCagr": 0.07914398283221755, "digitalTornqvistCagr": 0.07678226924321652, "digitalContributionProxy": 0.0013598945796202298, "valueAddedEnd": 620149, "valueAdded2024": 620149, "market": true, "tfpAccelerationVs2005To2019": -0.002418951726859908, "digitalShareCapitalCompensation2024": 0.07106371416927047, "regime": "Capital race" }, { "industry": "Other services, except government", "tfpCagr": -0.018617073406149598, "softwareCagr": 0.08476763499764939, "rdCagr": 0.06500200492971975, "itCagr": 0.05129425824471001, "otherCapitalCagr": 0.0014774420086109963, "energyCagr": 0.006896892102952412, "grossOutputCagr": 0.03644109779572102, "hoursCagr": 0.027483840930234704, "laborProductivityCagr": 0.008715428046800033, "digitalEndpointCagr": 0.07108001938260188, "digitalTornqvistCagr": 0.0695810699668975, "digitalContributionProxy": 0.0024317825069333516, "valueAddedEnd": 606756, "valueAdded2024": 606756, "market": true, "tfpAccelerationVs2005To2019": -0.014265006611451803, "digitalShareCapitalCompensation2024": 0.22311359465914227, "regime": "Capital race" }, { "industry": "Federal", "tfpCagr": -0.0008109329281219546, "softwareCagr": 0.10025155737790081, "rdCagr": 0.02820478836466722, "itCagr": 0.01137050580055421, "otherCapitalCagr": 0.004807996761192701, "energyCagr": -0.08774448736080498, "grossOutputCagr": 0.011296389545624397, "hoursCagr": 0.020061471942911746, "laborProductivityCagr": -0.008591967494226416, "digitalEndpointCagr": 0.0427920700754846, "digitalTornqvistCagr": 0.041313448005505515, "digitalContributionProxy": 0.010258210959710821, "valueAddedEnd": 1440309, "valueAdded2024": 1440309, "market": false, "tfpAccelerationVs2005To2019": -0.00018084293363218595, "digitalShareCapitalCompensation2024": 0.47440859422894266, "regime": "Capital race" }, { "industry": "State and local", "tfpCagr": -0.0015859983200462446, "softwareCagr": 0.09515705343525771, "rdCagr": 0.03293429262031644, "itCagr": 0.07018883312545277, "otherCapitalCagr": 0.006685055252845684, "energyCagr": -0.030537701535767958, "grossOutputCagr": 0.01987011753020118, "hoursCagr": 0.026204996358657473, "laborProductivityCagr": -0.006171995647277995, "digitalEndpointCagr": 0.06821173590520109, "digitalTornqvistCagr": 0.06713072929785757, "digitalContributionProxy": 0.0017247606771129528, "valueAddedEnd": 3578539, "valueAdded2024": 3578539, "market": false, "tfpAccelerationVs2005To2019": -0.0012189722562127026, "digitalShareCapitalCompensation2024": 0.06420849937726057, "regime": "Capital race" } ], "variableGlossary": [ { "variable": "industry", "sourceColumn": "industry", "unit": "BEA–BLS industry title", "definition": "Industry classification used in the integrated production account.", "caution": "The analysis uses industry aggregates, not firms or establishments." }, { "variable": "tfpCagr", "sourceColumn": "tfp_cagr", "unit": "annual decimal growth rate", "definition": "CAGR of the integrated BEA–BLS total factor productivity index.", "caution": "A residual containing efficiency, utilization, quality, markups, and measurement error." }, { "variable": "softwareCagr", "sourceColumn": "software_cagr", "unit": "annual decimal growth rate", "definition": "CAGR of the software-capital quantity index.", "caution": "Includes conventional software and is not a generative-AI adoption measure." }, { "variable": "rdCagr", "sourceColumn": "rd_cagr", "unit": "annual decimal growth rate", "definition": "CAGR of the research-and-development capital quantity index.", "caution": "R&D contains non-AI research and can be zero or imputed in some industries." }, { "variable": "itCagr", "sourceColumn": "it_cagr", "unit": "annual decimal growth rate", "definition": "CAGR of the information-technology equipment quantity index.", "caution": "Hardware quantity is AI-adjacent but neither necessary nor sufficient for productive AI use." }, { "variable": "otherCapitalCagr", "sourceColumn": "other_cagr", "unit": "annual decimal growth rate", "definition": "CAGR of capital quantities outside software, R&D, IT, and artistic originals.", "caution": "Used as context, not as part of the digital-capital bundle." }, { "variable": "energyCagr", "sourceColumn": "energy_cagr", "unit": "annual decimal growth rate", "definition": "CAGR of the industry energy-input quantity index.", "caution": "Quantity changes can reflect technology, prices, output mix, and cyclical utilization." }, { "variable": "grossOutputCagr", "sourceColumn": "gross_output_cagr", "unit": "annual decimal growth rate", "definition": "CAGR of the industry gross-output quantity index.", "caution": "Gross output includes intermediate production and is not value added." }, { "variable": "hoursCagr", "sourceColumn": "hours_cagr", "unit": "annual decimal growth rate", "definition": "CAGR of labor hours.", "caution": "Changes in utilization and labor composition can affect productivity measures." }, { "variable": "laborProductivityCagr", "sourceColumn": "labor_productivity_cagr", "unit": "annual decimal growth rate", "definition": "CAGR of integrated labor productivity.", "caution": "Can rise through capital deepening or hours changes without a frontier shift." }, { "variable": "digitalEndpointCagr", "sourceColumn": "digital_endpoint_cagr", "unit": "annual decimal growth rate", "definition": "Software, R&D, and IT quantity-index CAGRs combined with each industry’s 2024 within-bundle compensation shares.", "caution": "AI-adjacent proxy; not direct AI investment or adoption." }, { "variable": "digitalTornqvistCagr", "sourceColumn": "digital_tornqvist_cagr", "unit": "annual decimal growth rate", "definition": "Chain-weighted digital-capital growth using adjacent-period average compensation shares.", "caution": "Preferred sensitivity measure; still an AI-adjacent proxy." }, { "variable": "digitalContributionProxy", "sourceColumn": "digital_contribution_proxy", "unit": "annual decimal contribution", "definition": "Approximate share-weighted contribution of software, R&D, and IT capital to value-added growth.", "caution": "Industry-level approximation; official aggregate contributions remain separate." }, { "variable": "valueAddedEnd", "sourceColumn": "value_added_end", "unit": "millions of current U.S. dollars", "definition": "Industry value added in the final year of the selected analysis window.", "caution": "For the published 2021–2024 window this equals valueAdded2024." }, { "variable": "valueAdded2024", "sourceColumn": "value_added_2024", "unit": "millions of current U.S. dollars", "definition": "Industry value added in 2024, used as the descriptive aggregation weight.", "caution": "Fixed endpoint weights differ from official KLEMS aggregation and Domar weights." }, { "variable": "market", "sourceColumn": "market", "unit": "Boolean", "definition": "True for the 61 industries included in market aggregates.", "caution": "Federal and State and local government are retained in the data but excluded by default." }, { "variable": "tfpAccelerationVs2005To2019", "sourceColumn": "tfp_accel_vs_2005_2019", "unit": "annual decimal-point change", "definition": "Industry 2021–2024 TFP CAGR minus its 2005–2019 TFP CAGR.", "caution": "Acceleration changes when the counterfactual window changes." }, { "variable": "digitalShareCapitalCompensation2024", "sourceColumn": "digital_share_capital_comp_2024", "unit": "decimal share", "definition": "Software, R&D, and IT compensation as a share of measured 2024 capital compensation.", "caution": "A compensation share, not the share of output caused by AI." }, { "variable": "regime", "sourceColumn": "regime", "unit": "descriptive category", "definition": "Four-way map using a 3% digital-capital-growth threshold and a 0% TFP-growth threshold.", "caution": "A co-movement taxonomy, not a causal treatment classification." } ] }