You can describe today’s labour market in two ways.
The first sounds reassuring. Employment remains high. Unemployment is still low by historical standards. There is no wave of layoffs. Most people who want a job have one.
The second sounds much less comfortable. Vacancies have fallen. Hiring has slowed. Fewer workers quit. Job searches take longer. Entry-level openings have thinned out. Even applications per applicant are falling.
Both descriptions are true.
That is the puzzle behind the Great Stay.
01The verdict
The labour market is not collapsing. It is freezing.
Employment and unemployment are stocks. They tell us how many people occupy a state at a particular moment.
Vacancies, hires, quits and job-to-job moves are flows. They tell us how easily people can enter, leave or improve that state.
A stock can remain stable after the flows feeding it have weakened. A lake does not empty the moment its streams slow.
That distinction matters because workers do not experience the labour market as an unemployment rate. They experience it as a sequence of questions:
- Is there a credible job worth applying for?
- Will an employer actually hire?
- How many rounds will the process take?
- Can I negotiate?
- What happens if I leave and the next role disappears?
When the answer to those questions deteriorates, people stay. The aggregate then looks stable precisely because individual movement has become risky.
02Evidence 1 — Opportunity and movement are weakening together
The most direct picture is a two-dimensional one.
On the horizontal axis is opportunity: the year-on-year change in LinkedIn job postings per applicant. On the vertical axis is movement: the change in LinkedIn’s hiring rate. Bubble area represents the employment stock.
Between February and May 2026, Germany, France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom moved through this space. The United States is shown as a May reference point because the same February comparison is not available in the underlying release.
Inspect exact values
| country | iso | month | postings per applicant yoy | hiring rate yoy | applications per applicant yoy | hiring index 2016 | employment millions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | DE | 2026-02 | -17.8 | -17.8 | -12.3 | 0.96 | 45.546 |
| Germany | DE | 2026-05 | -18.5 | -20.2 | -23.0 | 0.89 | 45.546 |
| France | FR | 2026-02 | -11.5 | -17.4 | -12.7 | 0.82 | 31.262 |
| France | FR | 2026-05 | -16.3 | -17.5 | -26.0 | 0.79 | 31.262 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2026-02 | -9.0 | -19.8 | -7.3 | 0.68 | 10.161 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2026-05 | -20.9 | -17.8 | -20.7 | 0.65 | 10.161 |
| United Kingdom | UK | 2026-02 | 0.7 | -9.6 | -15.0 | 0.88 | 34.25 |
| United Kingdom | UK | 2026-05 | -7.1 | -10.7 | -27.6 | 0.83 | 34.25 |
| United States | US | 2026-05 | -7.0 | -4.8 | -35.0 | 162.771 |
The lower-left quadrant is the freeze: fewer opportunities and less hiring.
Every country shown was there by May.
The Netherlands recorded 20.9% fewer postings per applicant than a year earlier and a 17.8% lower hiring rate. Germany combined an 18.5% fall in postings per applicant with a 20.2% fall in hiring. France was at −16.3% and −17.5%. The UK remained less weak, but had moved sharply left: postings per applicant went from slightly positive in February to −7.1% in May.
This is not a ranking of “good” and “bad” countries. It is a map of deterioration. The trail matters more than the final coordinate.
03Evidence 2 — The stock–flow wedge is visible in the United States
The US data provide the cleanest long series because the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes employment, openings, hires and quits every month.
Rebase all four to December 2019 and the wedge becomes difficult to miss.
Inspect exact monthly values
| date | series | value | index 2019 12 100 | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-12-01 | Employment | 151794.0 | 100.0 | observed |
| 2019-12-01 | Hires | 5951.0 | 100.0 | observed |
| 2019-12-01 | Job openings | 6699.0 | 100.0 | observed |
| 2019-12-01 | Quits | 3487.0 | 100.0 | observed |
| 2020-01-01 | Employment | 152031.0 | 100.16 | observed |
| 2020-01-01 | Hires | 5981.0 | 100.5 | observed |
| 2020-01-01 | Job openings | 7124.0 | 106.34 | observed |
| 2020-01-01 | Quits | 3563.0 | 102.18 | observed |
| 2020-02-01 | Employment | 152293.0 | 100.33 | observed |
| 2020-02-01 | Hires | 5990.0 | 100.66 | observed |
| 2020-02-01 | Job openings | 6966.0 | 103.99 | observed |
| 2020-02-01 | Quits | 3497.0 | 100.29 | observed |
| 2020-03-01 | Employment | 150895.0 | 99.41 | observed |
| 2020-03-01 | Hires | 5171.0 | 86.89 | observed |
| 2020-03-01 | Job openings | 5894.0 | 87.98 | observed |
| 2020-03-01 | Quits | 2933.0 | 84.11 | observed |
| 2020-04-01 | Employment | 130426.0 | 85.92 | observed |
| 2020-04-01 | Hires | 4029.0 | 67.7 | observed |
| 2020-04-01 | Job openings | 4606.0 | 68.76 | observed |
| 2020-04-01 | Quits | 1991.0 | 57.1 | observed |
| 2020-05-01 | Employment | 133040.0 | 87.65 | observed |
| 2020-05-01 | Hires | 8133.0 | 136.67 | observed |
| 2020-05-01 | Job openings | 5612.0 | 83.77 | observed |
| 2020-05-01 | Quits | 2259.0 | 64.78 | observed |
| 2020-06-01 | Employment | 137671.0 | 90.7 | observed |
| 2020-06-01 | Hires | 7477.0 | 125.64 | observed |
| 2020-06-01 | Job openings | 6129.0 | 91.49 | observed |
| 2020-06-01 | Quits | 2594.0 | 74.39 | observed |
| 2020-07-01 | Employment | 139255.0 | 91.74 | observed |
| 2020-07-01 | Hires | 6320.0 | 106.2 | observed |
| 2020-07-01 | Job openings | 6530.0 | 97.48 | observed |
| 2020-07-01 | Quits | 3020.0 | 86.61 | observed |
| 2020-08-01 | Employment | 140821.0 | 92.77 | observed |
| 2020-08-01 | Hires | 6004.0 | 100.89 | observed |
| 2020-08-01 | Job openings | 6429.0 | 95.97 | observed |
| 2020-08-01 | Quits | 2931.0 | 84.06 | observed |
| 2020-09-01 | Employment | 141770.0 | 93.4 | observed |
| 2020-09-01 | Hires | 5966.0 | 100.25 | observed |
| 2020-09-01 | Job openings | 6511.0 | 97.19 | observed |
| 2020-09-01 | Quits | 3185.0 | 91.34 | observed |
| 2020-10-01 | Employment | 142460.0 | 93.85 | observed |
| 2020-10-01 | Hires | 6091.0 | 102.35 | observed |
| 2020-10-01 | Job openings | 6798.0 | 101.48 | observed |
| 2020-10-01 | Quits | 3311.0 | 94.95 | observed |
| 2020-11-01 | Employment | 142733.0 | 94.03 | observed |
| 2020-11-01 | Hires | 5894.0 | 99.04 | observed |
| 2020-11-01 | Job openings | 6820.0 | 101.81 | observed |
| 2020-11-01 | Quits | 3209.0 | 92.03 | observed |
| 2020-12-01 | Employment | 142548.0 | 93.91 | observed |
| 2020-12-01 | Hires | 5577.0 | 93.72 | observed |
| 2020-12-01 | Job openings | 6773.0 | 101.1 | observed |
| 2020-12-01 | Quits | 3369.0 | 96.62 | observed |
| 2021-01-01 | Employment | 142863.0 | 94.12 | observed |
| 2021-01-01 | Hires | 5598.0 | 94.07 | observed |
| 2021-01-01 | Job openings | 7162.0 | 106.91 | observed |
| 2021-01-01 | Quits | 3292.0 | 94.41 | observed |
| 2021-02-01 | Employment | 143380.0 | 94.46 | observed |
| 2021-02-01 | Hires | 5813.0 | 97.68 | observed |
| 2021-02-01 | Job openings | 7827.0 | 116.84 | observed |
| 2021-02-01 | Quits | 3373.0 | 96.73 | observed |
| 2021-03-01 | Employment | 144232.0 | 95.02 | observed |
| 2021-03-01 | Hires | 6158.0 | 103.48 | observed |
| 2021-03-01 | Job openings | 8499.0 | 126.87 | observed |
| 2021-03-01 | Quits | 3654.0 | 104.79 | observed |
| 2021-04-01 | Employment | 144587.0 | 95.25 | observed |
| 2021-04-01 | Hires | 6138.0 | 103.14 | observed |
| 2021-04-01 | Job openings | 9346.0 | 139.51 | observed |
| 2021-04-01 | Quits | 3943.0 | 113.08 | observed |
| 2021-05-01 | Employment | 145065.0 | 95.57 | observed |
| 2021-05-01 | Hires | 5981.0 | 100.5 | observed |
| 2021-05-01 | Job openings | 9954.0 | 148.59 | observed |
| 2021-05-01 | Quits | 3817.0 | 109.46 | observed |
| 2021-06-01 | Employment | 145820.0 | 96.06 | observed |
| 2021-06-01 | Hires | 6535.0 | 109.81 | observed |
| 2021-06-01 | Job openings | 10319.0 | 154.04 | observed |
| 2021-06-01 | Quits | 4017.0 | 115.2 | observed |
| 2021-07-01 | Employment | 146762.0 | 96.68 | observed |
| 2021-07-01 | Hires | 6720.0 | 112.92 | observed |
| 2021-07-01 | Job openings | 10983.0 | 163.95 | observed |
| 2021-07-01 | Quits | 4059.0 | 116.4 | observed |
| 2021-08-01 | Employment | 147314.0 | 97.05 | observed |
| 2021-08-01 | Hires | 6394.0 | 107.44 | observed |
| 2021-08-01 | Job openings | 10872.0 | 162.29 | observed |
| 2021-08-01 | Quits | 4171.0 | 119.62 | observed |
| 2021-09-01 | Employment | 147771.0 | 97.35 | observed |
| 2021-09-01 | Hires | 6632.0 | 111.44 | observed |
| 2021-09-01 | Job openings | 10834.0 | 161.73 | observed |
| 2021-09-01 | Quits | 4354.0 | 124.86 | observed |
| 2021-10-01 | Employment | 148572.0 | 97.88 | observed |
| 2021-10-01 | Hires | 6678.0 | 112.22 | observed |
| 2021-10-01 | Job openings | 11238.0 | 167.76 | observed |
| 2021-10-01 | Quits | 4153.0 | 119.1 | observed |
| 2021-11-01 | Employment | 149230.0 | 98.31 | observed |
| 2021-11-01 | Hires | 6911.0 | 116.13 | observed |
| 2021-11-01 | Job openings | 11199.0 | 167.17 | observed |
| 2021-11-01 | Quits | 4453.0 | 127.7 | observed |
| 2021-12-01 | Employment | 149816.0 | 98.7 | observed |
| 2021-12-01 | Hires | 6686.0 | 112.35 | observed |
| 2021-12-01 | Job openings | 11520.0 | 171.97 | observed |
| 2021-12-01 | Quits | 4314.0 | 123.72 | observed |
| 2022-01-01 | Employment | 150006.0 | 98.82 | observed |
| 2022-01-01 | Hires | 6431.0 | 108.07 | observed |
| 2022-01-01 | Job openings | 11210.0 | 167.34 | observed |
| 2022-01-01 | Quits | 4413.0 | 126.56 | observed |
| 2022-02-01 | Employment | 150825.0 | 99.36 | observed |
| 2022-02-01 | Hires | 6801.0 | 114.28 | observed |
| 2022-02-01 | Job openings | 11698.0 | 174.62 | observed |
| 2022-02-01 | Quits | 4233.0 | 121.39 | observed |
| 2022-03-01 | Employment | 151315.0 | 99.68 | observed |
| 2022-03-01 | Hires | 6619.0 | 111.23 | observed |
| 2022-03-01 | Job openings | 12301.0 | 183.62 | observed |
| 2022-03-01 | Quits | 4447.0 | 127.53 | observed |
| 2022-04-01 | Employment | 151623.0 | 99.89 | observed |
| 2022-04-01 | Hires | 6528.0 | 109.7 | observed |
| 2022-04-01 | Job openings | 11861.0 | 177.06 | observed |
| 2022-04-01 | Quits | 4499.0 | 129.02 | observed |
| 2022-05-01 | Employment | 151924.0 | 100.09 | observed |
| 2022-05-01 | Hires | 6440.0 | 108.22 | observed |
| 2022-05-01 | Job openings | 11535.0 | 172.19 | observed |
| 2022-05-01 | Quits | 4237.0 | 121.51 | observed |
| 2022-06-01 | Employment | 152358.0 | 100.37 | observed |
| 2022-06-01 | Hires | 6487.0 | 109.01 | observed |
| 2022-06-01 | Job openings | 11283.0 | 168.43 | observed |
| 2022-06-01 | Quits | 4165.0 | 119.44 | observed |
| 2022-07-01 | Employment | 153072.0 | 100.84 | observed |
| 2022-07-01 | Hires | 6478.0 | 108.86 | observed |
| 2022-07-01 | Job openings | 11576.0 | 172.8 | observed |
| 2022-07-01 | Quits | 4031.0 | 115.6 | observed |
| 2022-08-01 | Employment | 153362.0 | 101.03 | observed |
| 2022-08-01 | Hires | 6448.0 | 108.35 | observed |
| 2022-08-01 | Job openings | 10092.0 | 150.65 | observed |
| 2022-08-01 | Quits | 4258.0 | 122.11 | observed |
| 2022-09-01 | Employment | 153582.0 | 101.18 | observed |
| 2022-09-01 | Hires | 6201.0 | 104.2 | observed |
| 2022-09-01 | Job openings | 10800.0 | 161.22 | observed |
| 2022-09-01 | Quits | 4134.0 | 118.55 | observed |
| 2022-10-01 | Employment | 153939.0 | 101.41 | observed |
| 2022-10-01 | Hires | 6151.0 | 103.36 | observed |
| 2022-10-01 | Job openings | 10447.0 | 155.95 | observed |
| 2022-10-01 | Quits | 3956.0 | 113.45 | observed |
| 2022-11-01 | Employment | 154242.0 | 101.61 | observed |
| 2022-11-01 | Hires | 6180.0 | 103.85 | observed |
| 2022-11-01 | Job openings | 10632.0 | 158.71 | observed |
| 2022-11-01 | Quits | 4083.0 | 117.09 | observed |
| 2022-12-01 | Employment | 154342.0 | 101.68 | observed |
| 2022-12-01 | Hires | 6163.0 | 103.56 | observed |
| 2022-12-01 | Job openings | 10902.0 | 162.74 | observed |
| 2022-12-01 | Quits | 4125.0 | 118.3 | observed |
| 2023-01-01 | Employment | 154776.0 | 101.96 | observed |
| 2023-01-01 | Hires | 6370.0 | 107.04 | observed |
| 2023-01-01 | Job openings | 10318.0 | 154.02 | observed |
| 2023-01-01 | Quits | 3839.0 | 110.09 | observed |
| 2023-02-01 | Employment | 155066.0 | 102.16 | observed |
| 2023-02-01 | Hires | 5989.0 | 100.64 | observed |
| 2023-02-01 | Job openings | 9857.0 | 147.14 | observed |
| 2023-02-01 | Quits | 3917.0 | 112.33 | observed |
| 2023-03-01 | Employment | 155134.0 | 102.2 | observed |
| 2023-03-01 | Hires | 5925.0 | 99.56 | observed |
| 2023-03-01 | Job openings | 9655.0 | 144.13 | observed |
| 2023-03-01 | Quits | 3800.0 | 108.98 | observed |
| 2023-04-01 | Employment | 155375.0 | 102.36 | observed |
| 2023-04-01 | Hires | 5876.0 | 98.74 | observed |
| 2023-04-01 | Job openings | 9966.0 | 148.77 | observed |
| 2023-04-01 | Quits | 3617.0 | 103.73 | observed |
| 2023-05-01 | Employment | 155655.0 | 102.54 | observed |
| 2023-05-01 | Hires | 6119.0 | 102.82 | observed |
| 2023-05-01 | Job openings | 9368.0 | 139.84 | observed |
| 2023-05-01 | Quits | 3999.0 | 114.68 | observed |
| 2023-06-01 | Employment | 155880.0 | 102.69 | observed |
| 2023-06-01 | Hires | 5928.0 | 99.61 | observed |
| 2023-06-01 | Job openings | 9180.0 | 137.04 | observed |
| 2023-06-01 | Quits | 3693.0 | 105.91 | observed |
| 2023-07-01 | Employment | 156043.0 | 102.8 | observed |
| 2023-07-01 | Hires | 5672.0 | 95.31 | observed |
| 2023-07-01 | Job openings | 8657.0 | 129.23 | observed |
| 2023-07-01 | Quits | 3552.0 | 101.86 | observed |
| 2023-08-01 | Employment | 156261.0 | 102.94 | observed |
| 2023-08-01 | Hires | 5846.0 | 98.24 | observed |
| 2023-08-01 | Job openings | 9254.0 | 138.14 | observed |
| 2023-08-01 | Quits | 3621.0 | 103.84 | observed |
| 2023-09-01 | Employment | 156417.0 | 103.05 | observed |
| 2023-09-01 | Hires | 5773.0 | 97.01 | observed |
| 2023-09-01 | Job openings | 9259.0 | 138.21 | observed |
| 2023-09-01 | Quits | 3644.0 | 104.5 | observed |
| 2023-10-01 | Employment | 156576.0 | 103.15 | observed |
| 2023-10-01 | Hires | 5765.0 | 96.87 | observed |
| 2023-10-01 | Job openings | 8580.0 | 128.08 | observed |
| 2023-10-01 | Quits | 3574.0 | 102.49 | observed |
| 2023-11-01 | Employment | 156703.0 | 103.23 | observed |
| 2023-11-01 | Hires | 5535.0 | 93.01 | observed |
| 2023-11-01 | Job openings | 8602.0 | 128.41 | observed |
| 2023-11-01 | Quits | 3576.0 | 102.55 | observed |
| 2023-12-01 | Employment | 156857.0 | 103.34 | observed |
| 2023-12-01 | Hires | 5583.0 | 93.82 | observed |
| 2023-12-01 | Job openings | 8520.0 | 127.18 | observed |
| 2023-12-01 | Quits | 3412.0 | 97.85 | observed |
| 2024-01-01 | Employment | 157032.0 | 103.45 | observed |
| 2024-01-01 | Hires | 5591.0 | 93.95 | observed |
| 2024-01-01 | Job openings | 8378.0 | 125.06 | observed |
| 2024-01-01 | Quits | 3347.0 | 95.99 | observed |
| 2024-02-01 | Employment | 157238.0 | 103.59 | observed |
| 2024-02-01 | Hires | 5618.0 | 94.4 | observed |
| 2024-02-01 | Job openings | 8440.0 | 125.99 | observed |
| 2024-02-01 | Quits | 3482.0 | 99.86 | observed |
| 2024-03-01 | Employment | 157466.0 | 103.74 | observed |
| 2024-03-01 | Hires | 5452.0 | 91.61 | observed |
| 2024-03-01 | Job openings | 8206.0 | 122.5 | observed |
| 2024-03-01 | Quits | 3289.0 | 94.32 | observed |
| 2024-04-01 | Employment | 157530.0 | 103.78 | observed |
| 2024-04-01 | Hires | 5469.0 | 91.9 | observed |
| 2024-04-01 | Job openings | 7529.0 | 112.39 | observed |
| 2024-04-01 | Quits | 3438.0 | 98.59 | observed |
| 2024-05-01 | Employment | 157608.0 | 103.83 | observed |
| 2024-05-01 | Hires | 5492.0 | 92.29 | observed |
| 2024-05-01 | Job openings | 7782.0 | 116.17 | observed |
| 2024-05-01 | Quits | 3386.0 | 97.1 | observed |
| 2024-06-01 | Employment | 157695.0 | 103.89 | observed |
| 2024-06-01 | Hires | 5137.0 | 86.32 | observed |
| 2024-06-01 | Job openings | 7416.0 | 110.7 | observed |
| 2024-06-01 | Quits | 3280.0 | 94.06 | observed |
| 2024-07-01 | Employment | 157748.0 | 103.92 | observed |
| 2024-07-01 | Hires | 5430.0 | 91.25 | observed |
| 2024-07-01 | Job openings | 7426.0 | 110.85 | observed |
| 2024-07-01 | Quits | 3359.0 | 96.33 | observed |
| 2024-08-01 | Employment | 157757.0 | 103.93 | observed |
| 2024-08-01 | Hires | 5204.0 | 87.45 | observed |
| 2024-08-01 | Job openings | 7520.0 | 112.26 | observed |
| 2024-08-01 | Quits | 3240.0 | 92.92 | observed |
| 2024-09-01 | Employment | 157912.0 | 104.03 | observed |
| 2024-09-01 | Hires | 5427.0 | 91.19 | observed |
| 2024-09-01 | Job openings | 6943.0 | 103.64 | observed |
| 2024-09-01 | Quits | 3123.0 | 89.56 | observed |
| 2024-10-01 | Employment | 157945.0 | 104.05 | observed |
| 2024-10-01 | Hires | 5228.0 | 87.85 | observed |
| 2024-10-01 | Job openings | 7379.0 | 110.15 | observed |
| 2024-10-01 | Quits | 3215.0 | 92.2 | observed |
| 2024-11-01 | Employment | 158079.0 | 104.14 | observed |
| 2024-11-01 | Hires | 5155.0 | 86.62 | observed |
| 2024-11-01 | Job openings | 7566.0 | 112.94 | observed |
| 2024-11-01 | Quits | 3050.0 | 87.47 | observed |
| 2024-12-01 | Employment | 158316.0 | 104.3 | observed |
| 2024-12-01 | Hires | 5292.0 | 88.93 | observed |
| 2024-12-01 | Job openings | 7295.0 | 108.9 | observed |
| 2024-12-01 | Quits | 3085.0 | 88.47 | observed |
| 2025-01-01 | Employment | 158268.0 | 104.26 | observed |
| 2025-01-01 | Hires | 5238.0 | 88.02 | observed |
| 2025-01-01 | Job openings | 7431.0 | 110.93 | observed |
| 2025-01-01 | Quits | 3203.0 | 91.86 | observed |
| 2025-02-01 | Employment | 158310.0 | 104.29 | observed |
| 2025-02-01 | Hires | 5236.0 | 87.99 | observed |
| 2025-02-01 | Job openings | 7242.0 | 108.11 | observed |
| 2025-02-01 | Quits | 3153.0 | 90.42 | observed |
| 2025-03-01 | Employment | 158377.0 | 104.34 | observed |
| 2025-03-01 | Hires | 5333.0 | 89.62 | observed |
| 2025-03-01 | Job openings | 6952.0 | 103.78 | observed |
| 2025-03-01 | Quits | 3456.0 | 99.11 | observed |
| 2025-04-01 | Employment | 158485.0 | 104.41 | observed |
| 2025-04-01 | Hires | 5391.0 | 90.59 | observed |
| 2025-04-01 | Job openings | 7098.0 | 105.96 | observed |
| 2025-04-01 | Quits | 3144.0 | 90.16 | observed |
| 2025-05-01 | Employment | 158498.0 | 104.42 | observed |
| 2025-05-01 | Hires | 5328.0 | 89.53 | observed |
| 2025-05-01 | Job openings | 7310.0 | 109.12 | observed |
| 2025-05-01 | Quits | 3287.0 | 94.26 | observed |
| 2025-06-01 | Employment | 158478.0 | 104.4 | observed |
| 2025-06-01 | Hires | 5327.0 | 89.51 | observed |
| 2025-06-01 | Job openings | 7204.0 | 107.54 | observed |
| 2025-06-01 | Quits | 3254.0 | 93.32 | observed |
| 2025-07-01 | Employment | 158542.0 | 104.45 | observed |
| 2025-07-01 | Hires | 5225.0 | 87.8 | observed |
| 2025-07-01 | Job openings | 7089.0 | 105.82 | observed |
| 2025-07-01 | Quits | 3132.0 | 89.82 | observed |
| 2025-08-01 | Employment | 158472.0 | 104.4 | observed |
| 2025-08-01 | Hires | 5145.0 | 86.46 | observed |
| 2025-08-01 | Job openings | 6919.0 | 103.28 | observed |
| 2025-08-01 | Quits | 3095.0 | 88.76 | observed |
| 2025-09-01 | Employment | 158548.0 | 104.45 | observed |
| 2025-09-01 | Hires | 5244.0 | 88.12 | observed |
| 2025-09-01 | Job openings | 7169.0 | 107.02 | observed |
| 2025-09-01 | Quits | 2990.0 | 85.75 | observed |
| 2025-10-01 | Employment | 158408.0 | 104.36 | observed |
| 2025-10-01 | Hires | 5180.0 | 87.04 | observed |
| 2025-10-01 | Job openings | 7170.0 | 107.03 | observed |
| 2025-10-01 | Quits | 2980.0 | 85.46 | observed |
| 2025-11-01 | Employment | 158449.0 | 104.38 | observed |
| 2025-11-01 | Hires | 5019.0 | 84.34 | observed |
| 2025-11-01 | Job openings | 6846.0 | 102.19 | observed |
| 2025-11-01 | Quits | 3119.0 | 89.45 | observed |
| 2025-12-01 | Employment | 158432.0 | 104.37 | observed |
| 2025-12-01 | Hires | 5272.0 | 88.59 | observed |
| 2025-12-01 | Job openings | 6550.0 | 97.78 | observed |
| 2025-12-01 | Quits | 3225.0 | 92.49 | observed |
| 2026-01-01 | Employment | 158592.0 | 104.48 | observed |
| 2026-01-01 | Hires | 5347.0 | 89.85 | observed |
| 2026-01-01 | Job openings | 7240.0 | 108.08 | observed |
| 2026-01-01 | Quits | 3131.0 | 89.79 | observed |
| 2026-02-01 | Employment | 158436.0 | 104.38 | observed |
| 2026-02-01 | Hires | 4899.0 | 82.32 | observed |
| 2026-02-01 | Job openings | 6922.0 | 103.33 | observed |
| 2026-02-01 | Quits | 3046.0 | 87.35 | observed |
| 2026-03-01 | Employment | 158650.0 | 104.52 | observed |
| 2026-03-01 | Hires | 5535.0 | 93.01 | observed |
| 2026-03-01 | Job openings | 6887.0 | 102.81 | observed |
| 2026-03-01 | Quits | 3160.0 | 90.62 | observed |
| 2026-04-01 | Employment | 158798.0 | 104.61 | observed |
| 2026-04-01 | Hires | 5215.0 | 87.63 | observed |
| 2026-04-01 | Job openings | 7585.0 | 113.23 | observed |
| 2026-04-01 | Quits | 3043.0 | 87.27 | observed |
| 2026-05-01 | Employment | 158861.0 | 104.66 | observed |
| 2026-05-01 | Hires | 5252.0 | 88.25 | observed |
| 2026-05-01 | Job openings | 7537.0 | 112.51 | observed |
| 2026-05-01 | Quits | 3153.0 | 90.42 | observed |
| 2026-06-01 | Employment | 158881.0 | 104.67 | preliminary |
| 2026-06-01 | Hires | 5348.0 | 89.87 | preliminary |
| 2026-06-01 | Job openings | 7359.0 | 109.85 | preliminary |
| 2026-06-01 | Quits | 3232.0 | 92.69 | preliminary |
By June 2026, employment stood at 104.7 on the index. Hires were at 89.9. Quits were at 92.7.
Job openings remained above their December 2019 level at 109.8, but that figure needs context: it is well below the post-pandemic peak. The stock of employment survived. The churn around it did not.
This is why low layoffs can coexist with insecurity. The risk is not necessarily that your current job disappears tomorrow. It is that the route to a better one has narrowed.
The same retreat appears across vacancy measures, although the underlying sources are not identical. To compare the shape honestly, each country is indexed to its own post-2021 vacancy peak.
Inspect exact values
| country | iso | period | source measure | value | peak 2021 2026 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | DE | 2021-Q1 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.9 | 64.44 |
| Germany | DE | 2021-Q2 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.9 | 64.44 |
| Germany | DE | 2021-Q3 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 3.4 | 75.56 |
| Germany | DE | 2021-Q4 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 3.7 | 82.22 |
| Germany | DE | 2022-Q1 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.1 | 91.11 |
| Germany | DE | 2022-Q2 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.5 | 100.0 |
| Germany | DE | 2022-Q3 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.3 | 95.56 |
| Germany | DE | 2022-Q4 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.3 | 95.56 |
| Germany | DE | 2023-Q1 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.1 | 91.11 |
| Germany | DE | 2023-Q2 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.2 | 93.33 |
| Germany | DE | 2023-Q3 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.2 | 93.33 |
| Germany | DE | 2023-Q4 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 3.7 | 82.22 |
| Germany | DE | 2024-Q1 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 3.6 | 80.0 |
| Germany | DE | 2024-Q2 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 3.3 | 73.33 |
| Germany | DE | 2024-Q3 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 3.1 | 68.89 |
| Germany | DE | 2024-Q4 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 3.3 | 73.33 |
| Germany | DE | 2025-Q1 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.7 | 60.0 |
| Germany | DE | 2025-Q2 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.6 | 57.78 |
| Germany | DE | 2025-Q3 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.6 | 57.78 |
| Germany | DE | 2025-Q4 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.7 | 60.0 |
| Germany | DE | 2026-Q1 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.6 | 57.78 |
| Germany | DE | 2026-Q2 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.5 | 55.56 |
| France | FR | 2021-Q1 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.2 | 64.71 |
| France | FR | 2021-Q2 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.6 | 76.47 |
| France | FR | 2021-Q3 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.8 | 82.35 |
| France | FR | 2021-Q4 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 3.1 | 91.18 |
| France | FR | 2022-Q1 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 3.3 | 97.06 |
| France | FR | 2022-Q2 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 3.3 | 97.06 |
| France | FR | 2022-Q3 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 3.4 | 100.0 |
| France | FR | 2022-Q4 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 3.4 | 100.0 |
| France | FR | 2023-Q1 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 3.3 | 97.06 |
| France | FR | 2023-Q2 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 3.2 | 94.12 |
| France | FR | 2023-Q3 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 3.0 | 88.24 |
| France | FR | 2023-Q4 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.9 | 85.29 |
| France | FR | 2024-Q1 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.8 | 82.35 |
| France | FR | 2024-Q2 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.7 | 79.41 |
| France | FR | 2024-Q3 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.6 | 76.47 |
| France | FR | 2024-Q4 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.4 | 70.59 |
| France | FR | 2025-Q1 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.5 | 73.53 |
| France | FR | 2025-Q2 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.4 | 70.59 |
| France | FR | 2025-Q3 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.4 | 70.59 |
| France | FR | 2025-Q4 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.3 | 67.65 |
| France | FR | 2026-Q1 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.3 | 67.65 |
| France | FR | 2026-Q2 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.2 | 64.71 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2021-Q1 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 2.9 | 58.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2021-Q2 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 3.7 | 74.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2021-Q3 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.1 | 82.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2021-Q4 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.3 | 86.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2022-Q1 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.9 | 98.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2022-Q2 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 5.0 | 100.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2022-Q3 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.8 | 96.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2022-Q4 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.7 | 94.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2023-Q1 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.6 | 92.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2023-Q2 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.5 | 90.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2023-Q3 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.4 | 88.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2023-Q4 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.4 | 88.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2024-Q1 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.4 | 88.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2024-Q2 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.3 | 86.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2024-Q3 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.2 | 84.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2024-Q4 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.3 | 86.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2025-Q1 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.2 | 84.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2025-Q2 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.1 | 82.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2025-Q3 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.1 | 82.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | 2025-Q4 | Eurostat vacancy rate | 4.0 | 80.0 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Nov-Jan 2021 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 603.0 | 46.6 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Dec-Feb 2021 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 609.0 | 47.06 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Jan-Mar 2021 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 621.0 | 47.99 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Feb-Apr 2021 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 660.0 | 51.0 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Mar-May 2021 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 771.0 | 59.58 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Apr-Jun 2021 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 883.0 | 68.24 |
| United Kingdom | UK | May-Jul 2021 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 983.0 | 75.97 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Jun-Aug 2021 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1068.0 | 82.53 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Jul-Sep 2021 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1132.0 | 87.48 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Aug-Oct 2021 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1208.0 | 93.35 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Sep-Nov 2021 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1229.0 | 94.98 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Oct-Dec 2021 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1244.0 | 96.14 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Nov-Jan 2022 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1245.0 | 96.21 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Dec-Feb 2022 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1254.0 | 96.91 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Jan-Mar 2022 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1259.0 | 97.3 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Feb-Apr 2022 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1277.0 | 98.69 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Mar-May 2022 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1293.0 | 99.92 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Apr-Jun 2022 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1294.0 | 100.0 |
| United Kingdom | UK | May-Jul 2022 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1272.0 | 98.3 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Jun-Aug 2022 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1257.0 | 97.14 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Jul-Sep 2022 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1235.0 | 95.44 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Aug-Oct 2022 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1216.0 | 93.97 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Sep-Nov 2022 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1170.0 | 90.42 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Oct-Dec 2022 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1138.0 | 87.94 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Nov-Jan 2023 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1108.0 | 85.63 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Dec-Feb 2023 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1101.0 | 85.09 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Jan-Mar 2023 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1089.0 | 84.16 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Feb-Apr 2023 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1065.0 | 82.3 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Mar-May 2023 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1040.0 | 80.37 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Apr-Jun 2023 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1029.0 | 79.52 |
| United Kingdom | UK | May-Jul 2023 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 1018.0 | 78.67 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Jun-Aug 2023 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 999.0 | 77.2 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Jul-Sep 2023 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 984.0 | 76.04 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Aug-Oct 2023 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 958.0 | 74.03 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Sep-Nov 2023 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 951.0 | 73.49 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Oct-Dec 2023 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 923.0 | 71.33 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Nov-Jan 2024 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 910.0 | 70.32 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Dec-Feb 2024 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 895.0 | 69.17 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Jan-Mar 2024 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 893.0 | 69.01 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Feb-Apr 2024 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 885.0 | 68.39 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Mar-May 2024 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 885.0 | 68.39 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Apr-Jun 2024 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 872.0 | 67.39 |
| United Kingdom | UK | May-Jul 2024 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 867.0 | 67.0 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Jun-Aug 2024 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 853.0 | 65.92 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Jul-Sep 2024 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 840.0 | 64.91 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Aug-Oct 2024 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 828.0 | 63.99 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Sep-Nov 2024 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 810.0 | 62.6 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Oct-Dec 2024 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 805.0 | 62.21 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Nov-Jan 2025 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 798.0 | 61.67 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Dec-Feb 2025 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 793.0 | 61.28 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Jan-Mar 2025 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 775.0 | 59.89 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Feb-Apr 2025 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 759.0 | 58.66 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Mar-May 2025 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 738.0 | 57.03 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Apr-Jun 2025 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 730.0 | 56.41 |
| United Kingdom | UK | May-Jul 2025 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 727.0 | 56.18 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Jun-Aug 2025 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 737.0 | 56.96 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Jul-Sep 2025 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 729.0 | 56.34 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Aug-Oct 2025 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 728.0 | 56.26 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Sep-Nov 2025 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 730.0 | 56.41 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Oct-Dec 2025 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 739.0 | 57.11 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Nov-Jan 2026 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 734.0 | 56.72 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Dec-Feb 2026 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 725.0 | 56.03 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Jan-Mar 2026 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 718.0 | 55.49 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Feb-Apr 2026 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 713.0 | 55.1 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Mar-May 2026 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 710.0 | 54.87 |
| United Kingdom | UK | Apr-Jun 2026 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 711.0 | 54.95 |
| United Kingdom | UK | May-Jul 2026 | ONS vacancies, 3-month average | 707.0 | 54.64 |
| United States | US | 2021-01 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.8 | 64.0 |
| United States | US | 2021-02 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 5.2 | 69.33 |
| United States | US | 2021-03 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 5.6 | 74.67 |
| United States | US | 2021-04 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 6.1 | 81.33 |
| United States | US | 2021-05 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 6.4 | 85.33 |
| United States | US | 2021-06 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 6.6 | 88.0 |
| United States | US | 2021-07 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 7.0 | 93.33 |
| United States | US | 2021-08 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 6.9 | 92.0 |
| United States | US | 2021-09 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 6.8 | 90.67 |
| United States | US | 2021-10 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 7.0 | 93.33 |
| United States | US | 2021-11 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 7.0 | 93.33 |
| United States | US | 2021-12 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 7.1 | 94.67 |
| United States | US | 2022-01 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 7.0 | 93.33 |
| United States | US | 2022-02 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 7.2 | 96.0 |
| United States | US | 2022-03 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 7.5 | 100.0 |
| United States | US | 2022-04 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 7.3 | 97.33 |
| United States | US | 2022-05 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 7.1 | 94.67 |
| United States | US | 2022-06 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 6.9 | 92.0 |
| United States | US | 2022-07 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 7.0 | 93.33 |
| United States | US | 2022-08 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 6.2 | 82.67 |
| United States | US | 2022-09 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 6.6 | 88.0 |
| United States | US | 2022-10 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 6.4 | 85.33 |
| United States | US | 2022-11 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 6.4 | 85.33 |
| United States | US | 2022-12 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 6.6 | 88.0 |
| United States | US | 2023-01 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 6.2 | 82.67 |
| United States | US | 2023-02 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 6.0 | 80.0 |
| United States | US | 2023-03 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 5.9 | 78.67 |
| United States | US | 2023-04 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 6.0 | 80.0 |
| United States | US | 2023-05 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 5.7 | 76.0 |
| United States | US | 2023-06 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 5.6 | 74.67 |
| United States | US | 2023-07 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 5.3 | 70.67 |
| United States | US | 2023-08 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 5.6 | 74.67 |
| United States | US | 2023-09 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 5.6 | 74.67 |
| United States | US | 2023-10 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 5.2 | 69.33 |
| United States | US | 2023-11 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 5.2 | 69.33 |
| United States | US | 2023-12 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 5.2 | 69.33 |
| United States | US | 2024-01 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 5.1 | 68.0 |
| United States | US | 2024-02 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 5.1 | 68.0 |
| United States | US | 2024-03 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 5.0 | 66.67 |
| United States | US | 2024-04 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.6 | 61.33 |
| United States | US | 2024-05 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.7 | 62.67 |
| United States | US | 2024-06 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.5 | 60.0 |
| United States | US | 2024-07 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.5 | 60.0 |
| United States | US | 2024-08 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.6 | 61.33 |
| United States | US | 2024-09 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.2 | 56.0 |
| United States | US | 2024-10 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.5 | 60.0 |
| United States | US | 2024-11 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.6 | 61.33 |
| United States | US | 2024-12 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.4 | 58.67 |
| United States | US | 2025-01 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.5 | 60.0 |
| United States | US | 2025-02 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.4 | 58.67 |
| United States | US | 2025-03 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.2 | 56.0 |
| United States | US | 2025-04 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.3 | 57.33 |
| United States | US | 2025-05 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.4 | 58.67 |
| United States | US | 2025-06 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.3 | 57.33 |
| United States | US | 2025-07 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.3 | 57.33 |
| United States | US | 2025-08 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.2 | 56.0 |
| United States | US | 2025-09 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.3 | 57.33 |
| United States | US | 2025-10 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.3 | 57.33 |
| United States | US | 2025-11 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.1 | 54.67 |
| United States | US | 2025-12 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.0 | 53.33 |
| United States | US | 2026-01 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.4 | 58.67 |
| United States | US | 2026-02 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.2 | 56.0 |
| United States | US | 2026-03 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.2 | 56.0 |
| United States | US | 2026-04 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.6 | 61.33 |
| United States | US | 2026-05 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.5 | 60.0 |
| United States | US | 2026-06 | BLS JOLTS job openings rate | 4.4 | 58.67 |
At the latest available observation, the normalized vacancy measure stood roughly 44% below peak in Germany, 35% below in France, 45% below in the UK and 41% below in the US. The Netherlands was 20% below its peak, with its latest complete Eurostat observation ending in 2025 Q4.
The indices do not claim that a German vacancy rate is directly equivalent to a US JOLTS opening rate or a UK vacancy count. They answer a narrower question: how much of each country’s own post-2021 opportunity surge remains?
The answer is: much less.
04Evidence 3 — Application fatigue is not a metaphor
Conventional intuition says scarce opportunities should induce more search. If each vacancy becomes more valuable, applicants should send more applications.
That is not what the May 2026 LinkedIn data show.
Inspect exact values
| country | iso | postings per applicant yoy | applications per applicant yoy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | DE | -18.5 | -23.0 |
| France | FR | -16.3 | -26.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | -20.9 | -20.7 |
| United Kingdom | UK | -7.1 | -27.6 |
| United States | US | -7.0 | -35.0 |
All five countries sit in the fewer-opportunities, fewer-applications quadrant.
Applications per applicant fell 20.7% in the Netherlands, 23.0% in Germany, 26.0% in France, 27.6% in the UK and 35.0% in the US from a year earlier.
We should be careful with the interpretation. These are platform measures, not a census of every application. They cannot tell us why search intensity fell.
But they do reject an easy assumption: a tighter market does not automatically generate more active search. It can also produce delay, selective applications, fatigue or discouragement. The data identify the behaviour. They do not identify a single cause.
05Evidence 4 — The freeze has a sectoral shape
The vacancy decline is broad, but it is not uniform.
Eurostat’s sector series reveal substantial falls from post-2021 peaks in construction, finance, professional services and other business activities. The pattern varies by country, and several country-sector cells are unavailable. Those gaps are shown rather than imputed.
Inspect exact values
| country | iso | sector | nace r2 1 | peak period | peak rate | latest period | latest rate | change from peak percent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | DE | Construction | F | 2022-Q2 | 7.8 | 2026-Q2 | 4.5 | -42.3 |
| Germany | DE | Information & communication | J | 2022-Q3 | 6.3 | 2026-Q2 | 0.9 | -85.7 |
| Germany | DE | Finance & insurance | K | 2022-Q3 | 5.8 | 2026-Q2 | 2.9 | -50.0 |
| Germany | DE | Real estate | L | 2023-Q3 | 3.1 | 2026-Q2 | 2.3 | -25.8 |
| Germany | DE | Professional & scientific | M | 2022-Q2 | 3.1 | 2026-Q2 | 1.5 | -51.6 |
| France | FR | Construction | F | 2022-Q4 | 4.1 | 2026-Q2 | 2.4 | -41.5 |
| France | FR | Information & communication | J | 2021-Q4 | 3.0 | 2026-Q2 | 1.7 | -43.3 |
| France | FR | Finance & insurance | K | 2021-Q4 | 4.7 | 2026-Q2 | 2.7 | -42.6 |
| France | FR | Real estate | L | 2022-Q2 | 2.6 | 2026-Q2 | 1.6 | -38.5 |
| France | FR | Professional & scientific | M | 2023-Q4 | 4.1 | 2026-Q2 | 1.9 | -53.7 |
| Netherlands | NL | Manufacturing | C | 2022-Q2 | 5.0 | 2026-Q2 | 4.0 | -20.0 |
| Netherlands | NL | Construction | F | 2025-Q1 | 7.4 | 2026-Q2 | 6.8 | -8.1 |
| Netherlands | NL | Information & communication | J | 2022-Q1 | 8.2 | 2026-Q2 | 4.8 | -41.5 |
| Netherlands | NL | Finance & insurance | K | 2022-Q1 | 8.2 | 2026-Q2 | 4.8 | -41.5 |
| Netherlands | NL | Real estate | L | 2022-Q2 | 5.7 | 2026-Q2 | 3.2 | -43.9 |
| Netherlands | NL | Professional & scientific | M | 2022-Q1 | 4.9 | 2025-Q4 | 3.1 | -36.7 |
This matters for how the slowdown is experienced.
A national unemployment rate averages across occupations, regions and career stages. A worker does not apply to “the labour market.” She applies to a role in a sector, at a particular level, within commuting distance or under a remote-work arrangement.
The aggregate can therefore remain calm while the relevant slice for one person becomes extremely thin.
06Evidence 5 — The first rung is taking the hardest hit
The social consequence is clearest for people trying to enter.
LinkedIn’s comparison of overall hiring with advanced-degree entry-level hiring shows a consistent gap.
Inspect exact values
| country | iso | overall hiring vs prepandemic | advanced degree entry hiring vs prepandemic | gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | US | -23 | -41 | -18 |
| France | FR | -36 | -51 | -15 |
| Germany | DE | -23 | -38 | -15 |
| Netherlands | NL | -38 | -48 | -10 |
| United Kingdom | UK | -24 | -30 | -6 |
In every country shown, entry-level hiring for advanced-degree candidates sits further below its pre-pandemic level than hiring overall.
The additional shortfall is 18 percentage points in the US, 15 points in France and Germany, 10 points in the Netherlands and 6 points in the UK.
This is more than a difficult graduation season.
The first job is where education becomes experience. If firms reduce junior hiring while continuing to employ their existing workforce, the immediate unemployment effect can look modest. The longer effect is a missing cohort of experience, income and bargaining power.
That is the first-rung problem: stability for incumbents can coexist with exclusion for entrants.
07Evidence 6 — Even the jobs people want are mismatched
Remote work offers another view of the same scarcity.
Across the European countries shown, remote roles account for a much larger share of applications than of postings.
Inspect exact values
| country | iso | remote posting share | remote application share | application to posting ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | NL | 3.1 | 9.8 | 3.16 |
| Germany | DE | 7.2 | 17.5 | 2.43 |
| Sweden | SE | 4.6 | 9.4 | 2.04 |
| Italy | IT | 6.7 | 13.0 | 1.94 |
| France | FR | 3.2 | 6.1 | 1.91 |
| United Kingdom | UK | 9.4 | 17.2 | 1.83 |
| Ireland | IE | 9.4 | 15.6 | 1.66 |
In the Netherlands, 9.8% of applications went to remote roles, compared with just 3.1% of postings. Germany’s shares were 17.5% and 7.2%. France’s were 6.1% and 3.2%.
This is not proof that every employer should offer remote work. It is evidence that one of the labour market’s most valued job attributes remains in short supply.
When openings are scarce and the desirable subset is scarcer still, staying becomes rational even when the current job has not improved.
08What changed, why it matters, what follows
Changed: Employment stocks remain resilient, but vacancies, hiring, quits and search intensity have weakened.
Matters: Low unemployment now overstates the ease with which workers can enter, leave or improve a job. The cost is concentrated among movers and new entrants before it appears in the headline stock measures.
Follows: Labour-market analysis should report movement beside employment. At minimum, every “strong labour market” claim should be tested against vacancies, hiring, quits or job-to-job transitions and entry-level access.
There is no need for a composite freeze index yet. The underlying dimensions are more informative than a score whose weights would create false precision.
Nor does the evidence justify a dramatic collapse narrative. Layoffs remain contained. Employment remains high. In several series, the pace of decline has moderated.
The more precise conclusion is also the more unsettling one.
People are not being pushed out at scale. They are finding fewer credible ways forward.
So the question is not whether the Great Stay proves loyalty.
It is this:
Are people staying because their job has become better—or because leaving has become too risky?
09Methods and limits
The analysis combines official BLS, Eurostat and ONS statistics with timely measures from LinkedIn Economic Graph. US stock–flow series are indexed to December 2019. Cross-country vacancy paths are normalized to each country’s own post-2021 peak because the source measures differ. LinkedIn’s hiring rate is based on members who update their profiles with a new job start; postings and applications measures describe activity on the platform.
The analysis is descriptive. It does not estimate the causal effect of AI, interest rates, policy, employer sentiment or worker fear. The absence of a fully harmonized, current job-to-job-transition series prevents one exact movement measure from being used across all five countries. All calculations, exact values, source URLs and caveats are included in the accompanying research package.
Primary sources: LinkedIn EMEA–LATAM June 2026 · LinkedIn EMEA–LATAM March 2026 · BLS JOLTS · Eurostat job vacancies · ONS vacancies · LinkedIn graduate labour market