# Alt text

- **00-hero**: Three headline metrics show eastern aging, raw growth differences, and the attenuated flexible-convergence estimate.
- **01-ratio-explainer**: Bars translate the age ratio into older adults per 100 younger adults for East, West, and city-state groups.
- **02-age-paths**: Annual lines from 1991 to 2024 show all 16 Länder and bold East, West, and city-state population aggregates, with census breaks marked.
- **03-laender-aging-growth**: Sixteen-row panel compares each Land’s 1991 and 2024 age ratio with its 1991–2021 raw GDP-per-adult growth rate.
- **04-raw-aging-growth**: Scatter plot shows that the Länder with larger 1991–2021 age-ratio increases often had faster raw growth, especially eastern Länder.
- **05-starting-line-convergence**: Scatter plot shows poorer 1991 starting output associated with faster 1991–2021 growth; eastern Länder cluster at low starting output and high growth.
- **06-flexible-convergence**: Forest plot shows the paper benchmark and stronger convergence sensitivities; the preferred stringent interval crosses zero.
- **07-partial-residuals**: Two partial-residual plots compare the paper benchmark with the stringent East-and-period convergence adjustment.
- **08-coefficient-translation**: Two ten-year index paths translate a 0.317 percentage-point annual growth gap into an approximate 3.1 percent level gap.
- **09-mechanism-map**: Six competing channels connect age composition to regional outcomes, each labeled by current evidence status.
- **10-transition-accounting**: Accounting boxes show output per hour, hours per worker, and employment per resident reconciling exactly to output per resident.
- **11-capital-denominator**: Capital per hour is decomposed into nearly flat measured capital growth and falling actual hours.
- **12-research-roadmap**: A six-stage timeline shows census stability, cohort pressure, resident employment, dynamics, capital evidence, and the paper decision gate.
