# Sources, status and interpretation boundaries

## Immutable paper source

- [Paper v0.8.1](https://github.com/Schym/IP-CURRENT-RESEARCH/blob/0546db331aa8e3bad671cc2ff997359216103233/Hayashi_Germany_Research_Package/Hayashi_Germany_Research_Package/paper/build/main.pdf)
- [Immutable commit 0546db3](https://github.com/Schym/IP-CURRENT-RESEARCH/commit/0546db331aa8e3bad671cc2ff997359216103233)
- [Frozen Länder pre-analysis panel](https://github.com/Schym/IP-CURRENT-RESEARCH/blob/0546db331aa8e3bad671cc2ff997359216103233/Hayashi_Germany_Research_Package/Hayashi_Germany_Research_Package/outputs/releases/laender-preanalysis-b86a097d5159fb29/laender_window_preanalysis.csv)
- [Post-0.8 specifications](https://github.com/Schym/IP-CURRENT-RESEARCH/blob/0546db331aa8e3bad671cc2ff997359216103233/specs/hayashi-germany-paper/HAYASHI_GERMANY_POST_080_SPECS_PLAN.md)

## New analysis in this package

The flexible convergence audit is an unregistered diagnostic, not a paper v0.8.1 result. It uses the frozen 48 Land-decade rows, 16 Land clusters, 9,999 null-imposed WCR11 Rademacher bootstrap-t draws, seed 20260813. It lets the initial-output convergence slope differ by decade and adds East-noncity-by-decade components.

## Boundaries

- The paper's composition benchmark uses 1991–2021; 2022–2024 appears only in descriptive age charts.
- The ratio is population aged 50–79 divided by population aged 20–49. It is not retirees divided by workers.
- The benchmark −0.317 pp/year is a conditional association. The flexible diagnostic is −0.163 with CI [−0.436, +0.113]. Neither is causal.
- 2011 and 2022 are census-basis-change years. The post-2021 decline is not labeled rejuvenation.
- Workplace GDP divided by resident population is commuting-sensitive.
- The common-X transition accounting uses a different estimand and control set; do not treat it as the mechanism behind the composition coefficient.
- The capital measure is a stock index, not investment, capital services, robots, AI, or automation.
