{
  "schemaVersion": "ess-legitimacy-claims/v1",
  "aggregateSha256": "cb9015dccf7ff3b9f8b9cd2c38bcb157b82dcfbfc64c305ea845ae391b502fde",
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "E03-01",
      "estimate": 1.988979015,
      "standardError": 0.03526494574,
      "ciLower": 1.919857298,
      "ciUpper": 2.058100732,
      "status": "estimated",
      "modelId": "ess11-e4.2:country-spline",
      "contrastId": "lower-step",
      "round": 11,
      "n": 47836,
      "countries": 30,
      "unit": "Democratic-satisfaction rating points",
      "statement": "Economic scores 2 to 5 are associated with 1.99 more democratic-satisfaction points in the Round 11 country-adjusted model.",
      "limitation": "Conditional association in repeated cross-sections. Pointwise survey-design uncertainty; not a causal or threshold-location estimate."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-02",
      "estimate": 1.560843868,
      "standardError": 0.05261279228,
      "ciLower": 1.45771918,
      "ciUpper": 1.663968557,
      "status": "estimated",
      "modelId": "ess11-e4.2:country-spline",
      "contrastId": "upper-step",
      "round": 11,
      "n": 47836,
      "countries": 30,
      "unit": "Democratic-satisfaction rating points",
      "statement": "Economic scores 5 to 8 are associated with 1.56 more democratic-satisfaction points in the same model.",
      "limitation": "Conditional association in repeated cross-sections. Pointwise survey-design uncertainty; not a causal or threshold-location estimate."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-03",
      "estimate": -0.4281351466,
      "standardError": 0.0631371919,
      "ciLower": -0.5518883813,
      "ciUpper": -0.3043819119,
      "status": "estimated",
      "modelId": "ess11-e4.2:country-spline",
      "contrastId": "upper-minus-lower",
      "round": 11,
      "n": 47836,
      "countries": 30,
      "unit": "Democratic-satisfaction rating points",
      "statement": "The upper step is 0.43 points smaller; the upper-minus-lower contrast is -0.43, with a 95% interval from -0.55 to -0.30.",
      "limitation": "Conditional association in repeated cross-sections. Pointwise survey-design uncertainty; not a causal or threshold-location estimate."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-04",
      "estimate": -0.4281501549,
      "standardError": 0.06384749444,
      "ciLower": -0.5532957889,
      "ciUpper": -0.303004521,
      "status": "estimated",
      "modelId": "ess11-e4.2:complete-country-spline",
      "contrastId": "upper-minus-lower",
      "round": 11,
      "n": 46091,
      "countries": 30,
      "unit": "Democratic-satisfaction rating points",
      "statement": "The country-adjusted complete-case baseline retains the bend before further covariates are added.",
      "limitation": "Conditional association in repeated cross-sections. Pointwise survey-design uncertainty; not a causal or threshold-location estimate."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-05",
      "estimate": -0.3800842878,
      "standardError": 0.06505700235,
      "ciLower": -0.5076006458,
      "ciUpper": -0.2525679297,
      "status": "estimated",
      "modelId": "ess11-e4.2:adjusted-spline",
      "contrastId": "upper-minus-lower",
      "round": 11,
      "n": 46091,
      "countries": 30,
      "unit": "Democratic-satisfaction rating points",
      "statement": "The further-adjusted model uses the identical complete-case sample; its contrast is not a causal decomposition.",
      "limitation": "Conditional association in repeated cross-sections. Pointwise survey-design uncertainty; not a causal or threshold-location estimate."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-06",
      "estimate": -0.4269629048,
      "standardError": 0.06433576312,
      "ciLower": -0.5530659533,
      "ciUpper": -0.3008598564,
      "status": "estimated",
      "modelId": "ess11-e4.2:face-to-face-spline",
      "contrastId": "upper-minus-lower",
      "round": 11,
      "n": 45991,
      "countries": 30,
      "unit": "Democratic-satisfaction rating points",
      "statement": "The face-to-face restriction retains a negative upper-minus-lower contrast.",
      "limitation": "Conditional association in repeated cross-sections. Pointwise survey-design uncertainty; not a causal or threshold-location estimate."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-07",
      "estimate": -0.424537182,
      "standardError": 0.07705204221,
      "ciLower": -0.5755685641,
      "ciUpper": -0.2735057998,
      "status": "estimated",
      "modelId": "ess11-e4.2:fixed-country-spline",
      "contrastId": "upper-minus-lower",
      "round": 11,
      "n": 29719,
      "countries": 19,
      "unit": "Democratic-satisfaction rating points",
      "statement": "The same 19 recent countries retain a negative upper-minus-lower contrast in Round 11.",
      "limitation": "Conditional association in repeated cross-sections. Pointwise survey-design uncertainty; not a causal or threshold-location estimate."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-08",
      "status": "verified-observed",
      "value": 353155,
      "statement": "353,155 paired satisfaction responses across all eleven design-reviewed rounds."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-09",
      "status": "verified-observed",
      "value": 47836,
      "statement": "47,836 paired responses from 30 countries in the primary Round 11 model."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-10",
      "status": "verified-observed",
      "value": 640,
      "statement": "640 of the 2,398 observed-score aggregates are suppressed below 50 respondents."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-11",
      "status": "verified-observed",
      "value": 303,
      "statement": "303 observed-score aggregates have 50-99 responses and are flagged as low precision."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-12",
      "status": "estimated",
      "estimateId": "ess11-e4.2:FR:score-2:paired",
      "score": 2,
      "n": 213,
      "estimate": 3.167890588,
      "ciLower": 2.845361461,
      "ciUpper": 3.490419716,
      "suppressed": false,
      "statement": "France, score 2: observed democratic mean 3.17, 95% interval 2.85 to 3.49, 213 paired responses."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-13",
      "status": "estimated",
      "estimateId": "ess11-e4.2:FR:score-5:paired",
      "score": 5,
      "n": 284,
      "estimate": 5.098531341,
      "ciLower": 4.778464549,
      "ciUpper": 5.418598133,
      "suppressed": false,
      "statement": "France, score 5: observed democratic mean 5.10, 95% interval 4.78 to 5.42, 284 paired responses."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-14",
      "status": "verified-derived",
      "estimateId": "ess11-e4.2:FR:score-8:paired",
      "score": 8,
      "n": 35,
      "estimate": null,
      "ciLower": null,
      "ciUpper": null,
      "suppressed": true,
      "statement": "France, score 8: 35 paired responses; the observed mean remains suppressed."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-15",
      "status": "estimated",
      "modelId": "ess11-e4.2:country-spline",
      "predictions": [
        {
          "country": "FR",
          "score": 2,
          "estimate": 3.177929374,
          "standardError": 0.06200767714,
          "ciLower": 3.056390066,
          "ciUpper": 3.299468682
        },
        {
          "country": "FR",
          "score": 5,
          "estimate": 5.166908389,
          "standardError": 0.06120414505,
          "ciLower": 5.046944059,
          "ciUpper": 5.286872719
        },
        {
          "country": "FR",
          "score": 8,
          "estimate": 6.727752257,
          "standardError": 0.07904762246,
          "ciLower": 6.572813485,
          "ciUpper": 6.882691029
        }
      ],
      "statement": "France fitted levels at economic scores 2, 5 and 8 are 3.18, 5.17 and 6.73. The shared-curve model does not estimate a France-only gradient."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-16",
      "estimate": -0.3300240912,
      "standardError": 0.06980420943,
      "ciLower": -0.4668505482,
      "ciUpper": -0.1931976341,
      "status": "estimated",
      "modelId": "ess9-e3.3:fixed-country-spline",
      "contrastId": "upper-minus-lower",
      "round": 9,
      "n": 30624,
      "countries": 19,
      "unit": "Democratic-satisfaction rating points",
      "statement": "The Round 9 curvature check uses the same 19 recent countries.",
      "limitation": "Conditional association in repeated cross-sections. Pointwise survey-design uncertainty; not a causal or threshold-location estimate."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-17",
      "estimate": -0.2915770217,
      "standardError": 0.08061221766,
      "ciLower": -0.4495879057,
      "ciUpper": -0.1335661377,
      "status": "estimated",
      "modelId": "ess10-e3.3:fixed-country-spline",
      "contrastId": "upper-minus-lower",
      "round": 10,
      "n": 29753,
      "countries": 19,
      "unit": "Democratic-satisfaction rating points",
      "statement": "The Round 10 curvature check uses the same 19 recent countries.",
      "limitation": "Conditional association in repeated cross-sections. Pointwise survey-design uncertainty; not a causal or threshold-location estimate."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-18",
      "status": "verified-observed",
      "countryCounts": [
        {
          "round": 1,
          "countries": 7
        },
        {
          "round": 2,
          "countries": 10
        },
        {
          "round": 3,
          "countries": 8
        },
        {
          "round": 4,
          "countries": 7
        },
        {
          "round": 5,
          "countries": 20
        },
        {
          "round": 6,
          "countries": 27
        },
        {
          "round": 7,
          "countries": 21
        },
        {
          "round": 8,
          "countries": 23
        },
        {
          "round": 9,
          "countries": 29
        },
        {
          "round": 10,
          "countries": 22
        },
        {
          "round": 11,
          "countries": 30
        }
      ],
      "allRoundCountries": [
        "FI",
        "FR"
      ],
      "fixedCountries": [
        "BE",
        "BG",
        "CH",
        "EE",
        "FI",
        "FR",
        "GB",
        "HR",
        "HU",
        "IE",
        "IS",
        "IT",
        "LT",
        "ME",
        "NL",
        "NO",
        "PT",
        "SI",
        "SK"
      ],
      "fixedCountryRounds": [
        9,
        10,
        11
      ],
      "statement": "Historical country coverage changes. Only Finland and France span all eleven reviewed designs; the fixed 19-country check is confined to Rounds 9-11."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-19",
      "status": "verified-observed",
      "sourceRespondents": 518597,
      "analysedRespondents": 372349,
      "pairedN": 353155,
      "completeN": 339587,
      "statement": "Source records, design-eligible records, paired responses and complete-case records are separate denominators."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-20",
      "status": "estimated",
      "intervalCrossesZero": [
        1,
        3,
        4
      ],
      "modelIds": [
        "ess1-e6.7:country-spline",
        "ess2-e3.6:country-spline",
        "ess3-e3.7:country-spline",
        "ess4-e4.6:country-spline",
        "ess5-e3.6:country-spline",
        "ess6-e2.7:country-spline",
        "ess7-e2.3:country-spline",
        "ess8-e2.3:country-spline",
        "ess9-e3.3:country-spline",
        "ess10-e3.3:country-spline",
        "ess11-e4.2:country-spline"
      ],
      "jointTestRejectsDespiteContrastCrossing": [
        1,
        4
      ],
      "statement": "All eleven finite-contrast point estimates are negative; Rounds 1, 3 and 4 retain intervals across zero. The whole-shape test and finite-contrast test are distinct."
    },
    {
      "id": "E03-21",
      "status": "verified-derived",
      "independentRuns": 2,
      "models": 69,
      "predictions": 12562,
      "rawMeanChecks": 320,
      "statement": "Two byte-identical research runs and independently executed R checks cover all 69 models, 12,562 predictions and 320 raw-score mean references."
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "The fixed flexible model supports curvature; it neither locates nor rules out a sharp tipping point. Satisfaction with the way democracy works is not support for democracy as a regime."
}