{
  "schemaVersion": "ess-legitimacy-distribution-claims/v1",
  "aggregateSha256": "0adfca2086c8d353af41046b283d44534236c9e34b7d04bcdf98eff018c29c0b",
  "parentAggregateSha256": "cb9015dccf7ff3b9f8b9cd2c38bcb157b82dcfbfc64c305ea845ae391b502fde",
  "inferenceStatus": "secondary-exploratory",
  "claims": [
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      "id": "observed-low-democratic-rating",
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      "country": "ALL",
      "cutoff": 3,
      "unit": "fraction of paired respondents under original ESS analysis weights",
      "value": {
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        "ciLower": 0.3010094843,
        "ciUpper": 0.3185762349,
        "designDf": 22684,
        "n": 47836,
        "events": 14101,
        "lowPrecision": false,
        "sparseEvents": false,
        "reason": null
      },
      "boundary": "Ratings at or below three are a declared numerical cutoff, not rejection of democracy or an institutional quality index."
    },
    {
      "id": "standardized-low-rating-probabilities",
      "round": 11,
      "country": "ALL",
      "cutoff": 3,
      "modelN": 46091,
      "targetN": 46091,
      "available": true,
      "rows": [
        {
          "score": 2,
          "cutoff": 3,
          "estimate": 0.5320113203,
          "standardError": 0.007963715689,
          "ciLower": 0.5163756116,
          "ciUpper": 0.5475844153
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        {
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          "cutoff": 3,
          "estimate": 0.1653991511,
          "standardError": 0.005122250035,
          "ciLower": 0.1556019192,
          "ciUpper": 0.1756849054
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        {
          "score": 8,
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          "estimate": 0.06957841008,
          "standardError": 0.004667941754,
          "ciLower": 0.06096709099,
          "ciUpper": 0.07930331823
        }
      ],
      "unit": "fraction; multiply by 100 for percent",
      "boundary": "Adjusted associations standardized to a fixed complete-case empirical reference. Different rating scores, not individual or policy-induced changes."
    },
    {
      "id": "standardized-low-rating-contrasts",
      "round": 11,
      "country": "ALL",
      "cutoff": 3,
      "available": true,
      "rows": [
        {
          "cutoff": 3,
          "id": "lower-step",
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          "ciLower": -0.3848155138,
          "ciUpper": -0.3484088246
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          "ciUpper": -0.0844574787
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        {
          "cutoff": 3,
          "id": "upper-minus-lower",
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          "ciLower": 0.2474568896,
          "ciUpper": 0.2941259668
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      ],
      "unit": "probability fraction difference; multiply by 100 for percentage points",
      "boundary": "Within one cutoff fit, using the full covariance and standardized gradients. Pointwise intervals are not a simultaneous cross-cutoff band."
    },
    {
      "id": "country-common-shape-test",
      "model": "country-shape",
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      "profiles": 30,
      "test": {
        "statistic": 6.311535379,
        "pValue": 3.421076207e-67,
        "numeratorDf": 87,
        "denominatorDf": 22565
      },
      "boundary": "A joint test of all country-by-spline terms, not a significant-country ranking or a test of equal curvature alone."
    },
    {
      "id": "financial-common-shape-test",
      "model": "financial-shape",
      "n": 46091,
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        "pValue": 0.004228269261,
        "numeratorDf": 9,
        "denominatorDf": 22114
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      "profiles": [
        {
          "id": "1",
          "label": "Living comfortably on present income",
          "supportN": 14831,
          "contrast": {
            "id": "upper-minus-lower",
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            "standardError": 0.09934154274,
            "ciLower": -0.4965563361,
            "ciUpper": -0.1071233295
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        },
        {
          "id": "2",
          "label": "Coping on present income",
          "supportN": 20612,
          "contrast": {
            "id": "upper-minus-lower",
            "estimate": -0.4681314981,
            "standardError": 0.1127708055,
            "ciLower": -0.6891703135,
            "ciUpper": -0.2470926826
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        },
        {
          "id": "3",
          "label": "Difficult on present income",
          "supportN": 7840,
          "contrast": {
            "id": "upper-minus-lower",
            "estimate": -0.05153239703,
            "standardError": 0.1659061067,
            "ciLower": -0.3767201894,
            "ciUpper": 0.2736553953
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        },
        {
          "id": "4",
          "label": "Very difficult on present income",
          "supportN": 2808,
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            "standardError": 0.2978970185,
            "ciLower": -1.000931491,
            "ciUpper": 0.1668672803
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        }
      ],
      "unit": "democratic-satisfaction rating points",
      "boundary": "Conditional profile shapes, not a causal hardship effect or proof that curvature rises monotonically with financial difficulty."
    },
    {
      "id": "cdf-coherence-coverage",
      "targets": 32,
      "passed": 20,
      "rejected": [
        {
          "country": "AT",
          "crossingCount": 1,
          "reason": "Adjusted CDF unavailable because separate cutoff fits crossed."
        },
        {
          "country": "BG",
          "crossingCount": 4,
          "reason": "Adjusted CDF unavailable because separate cutoff fits crossed."
        },
        {
          "country": "CY",
          "crossingCount": 1,
          "reason": "Adjusted CDF unavailable because separate cutoff fits crossed."
        },
        {
          "country": "DE",
          "crossingCount": 1,
          "reason": "Adjusted CDF unavailable because separate cutoff fits crossed."
        },
        {
          "country": "ES",
          "crossingCount": 1,
          "reason": "Adjusted CDF unavailable because separate cutoff fits crossed."
        },
        {
          "country": "HR",
          "crossingCount": 1,
          "reason": "Adjusted CDF unavailable because separate cutoff fits crossed."
        },
        {
          "country": "LT",
          "crossingCount": 1,
          "reason": "Adjusted CDF unavailable because separate cutoff fits crossed."
        },
        {
          "country": "LV",
          "crossingCount": 1,
          "reason": "Adjusted CDF unavailable because separate cutoff fits crossed."
        },
        {
          "country": "ME",
          "crossingCount": 1,
          "reason": "Adjusted CDF unavailable because separate cutoff fits crossed."
        },
        {
          "country": "RS",
          "crossingCount": 3,
          "reason": "Adjusted CDF unavailable because separate cutoff fits crossed."
        },
        {
          "country": "SK",
          "crossingCount": 1,
          "reason": "Adjusted CDF unavailable because separate cutoff fits crossed."
        },
        {
          "country": "UA",
          "crossingCount": 2,
          "reason": "Adjusted CDF unavailable because separate cutoff fits crossed."
        }
      ],
      "boundary": "Rejected targets are model failures across registered cutoffs/scores, not missing survey observations. No partial target is repaired or displayed."
    }
  ],
  "publicationAllowed": false
}