{
  "schema": "ev-story-claim-ledger/v1",
  "revision": "r6",
  "researchCutoff": "2026-09-18",
  "scope": "The sixteen numbered exhibit findings, Diffusion Road default reading, threshold exercise’s six selected histories and illustrative curve laboratory. Reader sketches and teaching curves are not empirical estimates. Supplemental prose retains its source and limitations in the canonical article; this is not an independent recomputation of the supplied econometrics.",
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "ev-01-finding",
      "wording": "A fast-growing share of new cars does not describe the cars already in use.",
      "status": "observed",
      "figureId": "ev-01",
      "chartId": "line-chart",
      "unit": "%",
      "reference": "Germany / monthly new-registration share, January 2017–August 2026; separately dated active-fleet observations.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/statistik_node.html"
      ],
      "exactValueFiles": [
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/germany_monthly.csv",
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/germany_stock.csv"
      ],
      "limitation": "Both series measure BEV passenger cars, with different denominators. Fleet observations retain their source dates; gaps do not imply zero stock.",
      "reviewBasis": "Frozen source package, deterministic display transformation and targeted reconciliation tests."
    },
    {
      "id": "ev-02-finding",
      "wording": "Norway reached 95.43% in 2025; Germany was at 19.19% in this international series, while India was at 4.00%.",
      "status": "observed",
      "figureId": "ev-02",
      "chartId": "multi-series-line-chart",
      "unit": "%",
      "reference": "2010–2025 / six contrasting reference markets by default. Choose any of the 60 recorded countries or open the full context; 59 report 2025.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales"
      ],
      "exactValueFiles": [
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/global_country_year.csv"
      ],
      "limitation": "IEA Cars includes SUVs and passenger pickups. Rounded international sales shares are not interchangeable with exact KBA registrations; Germany’s KBA 2025 result is 19.08%.",
      "reviewBasis": "Frozen source package, deterministic display transformation and targeted reconciliation tests."
    },
    {
      "id": "ev-03-finding",
      "wording": "Twelve of sixty countries never cross 5% in their observed windows. Those that do still diverge.",
      "status": "derived",
      "figureId": "ev-03",
      "chartId": "multi-series-line-chart",
      "unit": "%",
      "reference": "Country trajectories aligned at their first observed annual BEV share of at least 5%.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales",
        "/data/ev-diffusion/manifest.json"
      ],
      "exactValueFiles": [
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/thresholds.csv",
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/global_country_year.csv"
      ],
      "limitation": "Crossings are discrete annual observations, not an identified tipping point. Never-crossing countries are right-censored, not zero-length successes. Later reversals remain in the record.",
      "reviewBasis": "Frozen source package, deterministic display transformation and targeted reconciliation tests."
    },
    {
      "id": "ev-04-finding",
      "wording": "The observed record contains acceleration, pauses and reversals at intermediate penetration levels.",
      "status": "derived",
      "figureId": "ev-04",
      "chartId": "scatterplot",
      "unit": "percentage points",
      "reference": "A D3 phase-space inspection: share in year t on the horizontal axis, the next annual change on the vertical.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales",
        "/data/ev-diffusion/manifest.json"
      ],
      "exactValueFiles": [
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/global_country_year.csv"
      ],
      "limitation": "Only consecutive annual observations are linked. This rejects a universal common-parameter curve; it does not identify which policy or mechanism caused a particular change.",
      "reviewBasis": "Frozen source package, deterministic display transformation and targeted reconciliation tests."
    },
    {
      "id": "ev-05-finding",
      "wording": "At one year, Gompertz reduces average error from 2.94 to 2.65 points; the logistic curve does not improve the average.",
      "status": "modelled",
      "figureId": "ev-05",
      "chartId": "dumbbell-chart",
      "unit": "percentage points",
      "reference": "Rolling-origin backtests / 48 eligible countries / equal-country mean absolute error. Lower is better.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales",
        "/data/ev-diffusion/manifest.json"
      ],
      "exactValueFiles": [
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/international_model_comparison.csv"
      ],
      "limitation": "Revised historical data, not a complete vintage-correct archive. MAE is country-equal; pooled RMSE answers a different question. The compared country sample is selected for consecutive history.",
      "reviewBasis": "Frozen source package, deterministic display transformation and targeted reconciliation tests."
    },
    {
      "id": "ev-06-finding",
      "wording": "Allowing common forecast-origin shocks makes the modest Gompertz advantage less secure.",
      "status": "modelled",
      "figureId": "ev-06",
      "chartId": "dot-and-whisker-plot",
      "unit": "percentage points",
      "reference": "Change in forecast error relative to naive, with supplied 95% bootstrap intervals. Negative values favor the fitted curve.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "/data/ev-diffusion/manifest.json"
      ],
      "exactValueFiles": [
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/paired_comparison.csv",
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/origin_block_uncertainty.csv"
      ],
      "limitation": "Country clustering and origin blocking change both dependence assumptions and weighting. There are only nine annual origins at one year; these are not interchangeable estimates or guaranteed forecast bands.",
      "reviewBasis": "Frozen source package, deterministic display transformation and targeted reconciliation tests."
    },
    {
      "id": "ev-07-finding",
      "wording": "A short-horizon advantage does not give Germany a reliable long-run adoption date.",
      "status": "modelled",
      "figureId": "ev-07",
      "chartId": "multi-series-line-chart",
      "unit": "%",
      "reference": "Germany / forecasts fixed in December 2022 or December 2023 against the subsequently observed monthly BEV share.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/statistik_node.html",
        "/data/ev-diffusion/manifest.json"
      ],
      "exactValueFiles": [
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/germany_historical_forecasts.csv",
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/germany_model_comparison.csv"
      ],
      "limitation": "The forecast paths were estimated in the supplied research using revised history. Dashed lines are frozen predictions, not alternative observed histories. Policy chronology supplies context, not causal identification.",
      "reviewBasis": "Frozen source package, deterministic display transformation and targeted reconciliation tests."
    },
    {
      "id": "ev-08-finding",
      "wording": "The 2025 world share is 16.51%, compared with 9.71% excluding China.",
      "status": "derived",
      "figureId": "ev-08",
      "chartId": "multi-series-line-chart",
      "unit": "%",
      "reference": "World, China and world excluding China / market-weighted BEV new-sales shares / 2010–2025.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales",
        "/data/ev-diffusion/manifest.json"
      ],
      "exactValueFiles": [
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/world_aggregation.csv"
      ],
      "limitation": "China is part of the world, not an additional category. These are BEVs only: another 8.49 percentage points of global new sales are PHEVs. Counts inferred from rounded source shares are approximate.",
      "reviewBasis": "Frozen source package, deterministic display transformation and targeted reconciliation tests."
    },
    {
      "id": "ev-09-finding",
      "wording": "Within-market penetration accounts for about 88% of the 3.31-point rise; shifting weights account for the rest.",
      "status": "derived",
      "figureId": "ev-09",
      "chartId": "waterfall-chart",
      "unit": "percentage points",
      "reference": "Exact two-factor decomposition of the global BEV share increase, 2024–2025 / percentage points.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales",
        "/data/ev-diffusion/manifest.json"
      ],
      "exactValueFiles": [
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/world_decomposition.csv"
      ],
      "limitation": "A balanced 53-country panel plus an explicit residual partitions the world series. This is an accounting decomposition, not a causal counterfactual that freezes national market sizes.",
      "reviewBasis": "Frozen source package, deterministic display transformation and targeted reconciliation tests."
    },
    {
      "id": "ev-10-finding",
      "wording": "January–August 2026 BEV shares: 34.77% for private keepers, 21.56% for commercial keepers.",
      "status": "observed",
      "figureId": "ev-10",
      "chartId": "multi-series-line-chart",
      "unit": "%",
      "reference": "Germany / BEVs as a share of each registered-keeper group / January 2024–August 2026.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/statistik_node.html"
      ],
      "exactValueFiles": [
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/germany_keepers.csv",
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/keeper_jan_aug_comparison.csv"
      ],
      "limitation": "These are keeper categories, not newly adopting households. Dealers, manufacturers and rental companies are included in commercial registrations, not added again. Group totals reconcile; causal subsidy effects are not identified.",
      "reviewBasis": "Frozen source package, deterministic display transformation and targeted reconciliation tests."
    },
    {
      "id": "ev-11-finding",
      "wording": "Published district shares range from about 1.24% in Görlitz to 12.50% in Wolfsburg.",
      "status": "observed",
      "figureId": "ev-11",
      "chartId": "choropleth-map",
      "unit": "%",
      "reference": "Four hundred German registration districts / BEV share of active passenger-car stock / 1 January 2026.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/statistik_node.html",
        "https://services-eu1.arcgis.com/U09msXRZoxesNntH/arcgis/rest/services/FZ%20Pkw%20mit%20Elektroantrieb%20Zulassungsbezirk/FeatureServer/0/query?where=Berichtszeitpunkt%3D%272026.01%27&outFields=Schluessel_Zulbz%2CGEN%2CBEZ&returnGeometry=true&outSR=4326&geometryPrecision=3&f=json&resultRecordCount=1000"
      ],
      "exactValueFiles": [
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/germany_region_year.csv"
      ],
      "limitation": "Corporate fleets can dominate registered addresses. The national unallocated category is not mapped. KBA/ArcGIS January 2026 boundaries, D3 Mercator, source-simplified WGS84 geometry; DL-DE BY 2.0 attribution. Contemporary boundaries are not a constant historical geography.",
      "reviewBasis": "Frozen source package, deterministic display transformation and targeted reconciliation tests."
    },
    {
      "id": "ev-12-finding",
      "wording": "Charging levels have a positive conditional association; the 2023–2026 change specification is near zero.",
      "status": "modelled",
      "figureId": "ev-12",
      "chartId": "coefficient-plot",
      "unit": "pp per log unit",
      "reference": "Supplied regional charging coefficients / BEV fleet share in percentage points per unit of log(1 + charging points).",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/statistik_node.html",
        "https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/ElektrizitaetundGas/E-Mobilitaet/start.html",
        "https://www.zensus2022.de/EN/Home/_node.html",
        "/data/ev-diffusion/manifest.json"
      ],
      "exactValueFiles": [
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/regional_associations.csv"
      ],
      "limitation": "Whiskers are approximate 95% intervals, coefficient ± 1.96 × state-cluster SE, across only 16 clusters. Both models use 395 matched areas. Investment responds to demand; omitted income, commuting and spatial dependence remain. Not causal effects.",
      "reviewBasis": "Frozen source package, deterministic display transformation and targeted reconciliation tests."
    },
    {
      "id": "ev-13-finding",
      "wording": "A shallow profile means substantially different ceilings can fit almost equally well.",
      "status": "modelled",
      "figureId": "ev-13",
      "chartId": "line-chart",
      "unit": "RMSE, percentage points",
      "reference": "Logistic profile loss: impose a ceiling K, refit the remaining parameters, and inspect in-sample RMSE.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales",
        "/data/ev-diffusion/manifest.json"
      ],
      "exactValueFiles": [
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/saturation_profiles.csv"
      ],
      "limitation": "This is a loss profile, not a probability density. Both axes adapt to the selected country and its tested ceiling range: compare its own ceilings, not visual steepness across countries. Window sensitivity remains material. No 50% or 80% adoption year is inferred.",
      "reviewBasis": "Frozen source package, deterministic display transformation and targeted reconciliation tests."
    },
    {
      "id": "ev-14-finding",
      "wording": "BEVs account for 15.46% of cars younger than five, compared with 1.47% among five-to-nine-year-old cars.",
      "status": "observed",
      "figureId": "ev-14",
      "chartId": "horizontal-bar-chart",
      "unit": "%",
      "reference": "BEV share within each passenger-car age group / Germany / 1 January 2026.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/statistik_node.html"
      ],
      "exactValueFiles": [
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/germany_age_stock.csv"
      ],
      "limitation": "Within-age-group penetration differs from the age composition of BEVs: 89.25% of BEVs are younger than five. An age cross section does not identify a lifetime or scrappage hazard.",
      "reviewBasis": "Frozen source package, deterministic display transformation and targeted reconciliation tests."
    },
    {
      "id": "ev-15-finding",
      "wording": "545,142 new BEVs accompanied a net stock increase of 382,617; the difference is a signed accounting residual.",
      "status": "derived",
      "figureId": "ev-15",
      "chartId": "waterfall-chart",
      "unit": "BEV passenger cars",
      "reference": "Germany / 2025 BEV registrations reconciled with the increase between 1 January 2025 and 1 January 2026.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/statistik_node.html",
        "/data/ev-diffusion/manifest.json"
      ],
      "exactValueFiles": [
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/stock_flow_accounting.csv"
      ],
      "limitation": "The −162,525 residual combines used imports, exports, domestic scrappage and register adjustments. Its individual components are unobserved. Calling the residual “exports” would invent a result.",
      "reviewBasis": "Frozen source package, deterministic display transformation and targeted reconciliation tests."
    },
    {
      "id": "ev-16-finding",
      "wording": "Reaching 100% BEV new sales in 2035 produces a 36.2% BEV fleet that year under the middle exit assumption.",
      "status": "scenario",
      "figureId": "ev-16",
      "chartId": "range-area-chart",
      "unit": "%",
      "reference": "Explicit constant-fleet scenarios / end-of-year BEV fleet shares / 2026–2040. Sales targets are reached in 2035, then held; change the path and assumed exit rate.",
      "sourceUrls": [
        "https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/statistik_node.html",
        "/data/ev-diffusion/manifest.json"
      ],
      "exactValueFiles": [
        "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/fleet_scenarios.csv"
      ],
      "limitation": "The fleet is held at 49,486,487 cars; annual registrations at 2,857,591. BEV exit rates of 1%, 3% or 5% are assumptions, not estimated survival rates. Used imports and other net adjustments are zero. Scenario variation is not forecast uncertainty.",
      "reviewBasis": "Frozen source package, deterministic display transformation and targeted reconciliation tests."
    }
  ],
  "flagship": {
    "figureId": "ev-road",
    "chartId": "100percent-stacked-bar-chart",
    "wording": "Recorded evidence. New registrations: 24.56%, Sep 2025–Aug 2026. Active fleet: 4.76%, 2026-07-01.",
    "defaultMode": "record",
    "defaultBasis": "trailing",
    "limitation": "Independent denominators. The reference-date join uses the frozen revised edition, not information known at the selected month’s end.",
    "sourceFiles": [
      "germany_monthly.csv",
      "germany_stock.csv",
      "fleet_scenarios.csv"
    ]
  },
  "exercise": {
    "figureId": "ev-trial",
    "chartId": "multi-series-line-chart",
    "wording": "Each of these six selected histories reverses at least once over the following five years. A milestone is not a promise of uninterrupted growth.",
    "sourceFile": "/data/ev-diffusion/tables/global_country_year.csv",
    "limitation": "Six selected European teaching cases with five complete annual follow-up observations. They are not representative of all countries or of every threshold crosser. Calendar windows differ by market. This is a retrospective intuition exercise using revised, rounded IEA/OWID observations, not a blind forecast experiment or a test of forecasting skill. The reader sketch is not an empirical estimate. Crossing 5% does not identify a causal tipping point.",
    "reviewBasis": "All six complete source windows contain a negative year-over-year share change. No claim is made about all countries or about causality."
  },
  "laboratory": {
    "figureId": "ev-curves",
    "chartId": "multi-series-line-chart",
    "status": "illustrative",
    "wording": "For a logistic curve, the fastest rise occurs halfway to the ceiling. For a Gompertz curve, it occurs earlier in share terms, at about 36.8% of the ceiling. Shape is an assumption with consequences.",
    "unit": "New-sales share (%) and growth (percentage points per year)",
    "defaultInputs": {
      "ceiling": 80,
      "peakAnnualGain": 8,
      "relativeInflectionYear": 0
    },
    "limitation": "Illustrative mathematical functions on a fixed zero–100% share axis. The horizontal axis is years relative to an assumed inflection, not a calendar forecast. Inputs are teaching choices, not parameter estimates or confidence limits.",
    "method": "To match peak growth p (percentage points per year), set logistic r = 4p/K and Gompertz r = ep/K, with K expressed as a percentage and t₀ = 0. Evaluate every quarter-year from −15 to +15; the exact-value table reports whole relative years.",
    "reviewBasis": "Analytic inflection levels and equal peak derivatives checked for every permitted ceiling/gain pair. No observed country parameters or new statistical estimates."
  }
}