{ "schema": "ev-illustrative-curves/v1", "revision": "r6", "chartId": "multi-series-line-chart", "status": "illustrative", "boundary": "Illustrative mathematical functions on a fixed zero–100% share axis. The horizontal axis is years relative to an assumed inflection, not a calendar forecast. Inputs are teaching choices, not parameter estimates or confidence limits.", "method": "To match peak growth p (percentage points per year), set logistic r = 4p/K and Gompertz r = ep/K, with K expressed as a percentage and t₀ = 0. Evaluate every quarter-year from −15 to +15; the exact-value table reports whole relative years.", "parameters": { "ceilingPercent": 80, "peakGainPercentagePointsPerYear": 8, "relativeInflectionYear": 0 }, "readings": [ { "year": -15, "logistic": 0.19780985253078195, "gompertz": 1.9171426036135766e-24, "logisticGrowth": 0.07892829732352155, "gompertzGrowth": 3.0743343520443685e-23 }, { "year": -14.75, "logistic": 0.21855686104088473, "gompertz": 9.244885497919476e-23, "logisticGrowth": 0.08718390890881367, "gompertzGrowth": 1.3851118540971662e-21 }, { "year": -14.5, "logistic": 0.24147330597667374, "gompertz": 3.455893396519969e-21, "logisticGrowth": 0.09629777560317297, "gompertzGrowth": 4.837603579111104e-20 }, { "year": -14.25, "logistic": 0.26678458459306753, "gompertz": 1.0183484491149474e-19, "logisticGrowth": 0.10635796376434455, "gompertzGrowth": 1.3318428265354917e-18 }, { "year": -14, "logistic": 0.29473919195487885, "gompertz": 2.4026913473051217e-18, "logisticGrowth": 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79.56109608804395, "gompertz": 77.69818395474977, "logisticGrowth": 0.1745983815627684, "gompertzGrowth": 0.6166093588961173 }, { "year": 13.25, "logistic": 79.60265586799544, "gompertz": 77.84735810506872, "logisticGrowth": 0.15814824100563263, "gompertzGrowth": 0.577204558960345 }, { "year": 13.5, "logistic": 79.64029814712471, "gompertz": 77.98699038867119, "logisticGrowth": 0.14323381403530705, "gompertzGrowth": 0.5402498622747148 }, { "year": 13.75, "logistic": 79.67438898272832, "gompertz": 78.11767521925209, "logisticGrowth": 0.12971429423582972, "gompertzGrowth": 0.5056016055311874 }, { "year": 14, "logistic": 79.70526080804513, "gompertz": 78.23997201140371, "logisticGrowth": 0.11746132082557752, "gompertzGrowth": 0.4731234244740206 }, { "year": 14.25, "logistic": 79.73321541540693, "gompertz": 78.35440697846602, "logisticGrowth": 0.10635796376434352, "gompertzGrowth": 0.4426860353585967 }, { "year": 14.5, "logistic": 79.75852669402333, "gompertz": 78.46147487353119, "logisticGrowth": 0.09629777560317036, "gompertzGrowth": 0.4141669995743262 }, { "year": 14.75, "logistic": 79.78144313895912, "gompertz": 78.5616406699979, "logisticGrowth": 0.08718390890881068, "gompertzGrowth": 0.38745047614589356 }, { "year": 15, "logistic": 79.80219014746922, "gompertz": 78.65534117916037, "logisticGrowth": 0.07892829732352133, "gompertzGrowth": 0.36242696612259406 } ], "receipt": [ "ILLUSTRATIVE CURVE LABORATORY / NOT FITTED OBSERVATIONS OR FORECASTS", "Common ceiling: 80%. Common peak gain: 8 percentage points per year.", "At relative year zero: logistic = 40.0000%; Gompertz = 29.4304%.", "The inflection is fixed at relative year zero. Logistic r = 4p/K; Gompertz r = ep/K. No country parameters are estimated here.", "" ] }