Monthly since October 2025
Chemical Industry Radar
Separate a cyclical improvement from a durable recovery in German chemicals.
Did the signal enter production, utilisation, employment and domestic investment?
- Mood
- 3.3 / 10
- July output
- −2.9%
- BASF Ludwigshafen
- ≈ +30%
Latest edition · September 2026
Capital moves before the cycle turns
September separates capital from the cycle. BASF commissioned a larger Ludwigshafen plant and LANXESS opened a battery laboratory, yet July output fell 2.9%, power averaged €144.82/MWh and the listed basket lost ground.
Evolution
What changed as the series accumulated evidence
- 01 · October 2025
The series opened at 3.0 / 10
October 2025 stands as a definitive inflection point—the transition from cyclical downturn to permanent structural recalibration. The ADNOC-Covestro finalization, BASF's Carlyle divestiture, and the damning Hydrogen Strategy audit define the "Month of Structural Realization."
- 02 · May 2026
The low point reached 1.6 / 10
A Special Cycle Hid the Structural One
- 03 · September 2026
The latest reading eased to 3.3 / 10
Selective German capital advanced while output, power costs and the listed basket weakened; the index eased to 3.3.
Continuity
Edition calendar
- Sep 26Capital moves before the cycle turnsMood 3.3Latest edition
- Aug 26The Rebound That Ran Through HormuzMood 3.4Open edition
- Jul 26Corporate Rebound, Location ErosionMood 3.2Open edition
- Jun 26Hope Returned, but Mostly Through ScarcityMood 2.6Open edition
- May 26A Special Cycle Hid the Structural OneMood 1.6Open edition
- Apr 26Policy Relief Met a Three-Year LowMood 1.7Open edition
- Mar 26The Energy Shock ReturnedMood 1.8Open edition
- Feb 26A Better Tape, but No Industrial TurnMood 3.1Open edition
- Jan 26January 2026Mood 2.8Open edition
- Dec 25December 2025Mood 2.3Open edition
- Nov 25November 2025Mood 2.5Open edition
- Oct 25October 2025Mood 3.0Open edition