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A system guide

The Climate Machine

How Earth moves heat, water and carbon

A temperature record tells us that Earth is changing. To understand how, we need to follow what the planet receives, what it stores, and what it sends back into space.

This is a guided view of a connected system. Scroll to open it, follow the movement of energy, water and carbon, then leave the model behind and inspect the observations.

Visual description and limits

An intact Earth, with ocean, continents, ice, clouds and a thin atmospheric limb. The same planet remains the specimen throughout the story.

An explanatory model, not a climate simulation. No drag or rotation is required.

01 / Correspondence

One planet. Connected reservoirs.

Separate the atmosphere, clouds, ocean, land, ice, and life with its soils. These are useful distinctions, but none of the parts has a climate independent of the others. They exchange energy and material.

The ocean can store heat. Ice changes reflectivity and holds water. Vegetation and soils exchange carbon with the atmosphere. A change in one reservoir can therefore alter the conditions under which another operates.

  • 01Atmosphere
  • 02Clouds
  • 03Ocean
  • 04Land
  • 05Ice
  • 06Life & soil
Six named layers separate while retaining their correspondence to the original Earth. Atmosphere and clouds rise above the surface; ocean, land, ice, and life/soil remain identifiable.
Authored model still. Geometry and flows are schematic, not measured scales.
Visual description and limits

Six named layers separate while retaining their correspondence to the original Earth. Atmosphere and clouds rise above the surface; ocean, land, ice, and life/soil remain identifiable.

Layer spacing, atmospheric thickness and ice/cloud shapes are exaggerated or schematic, not current observations.

02 / Input and output

Incoming sunlight. Outgoing heat.

Sunlight supplies energy to Earth. Clouds, aerosols and bright surfaces reflect a part of it; the remainder is absorbed by the surface and atmosphere. The planet also emits energy outward as infrared radiation.

When absorbed incoming energy exceeds outgoing energy, the system gains heat. As Earth warms, its thermal emission tends to increase. Climate depends on this balance, not on sunlight alone.

Straight incoming solar ribbons divide into reflected and absorbed routes. Separate curved outgoing infrared paths continue into space.
Authored model still. Geometry and flows are schematic, not measured scales.
Visual description and limits

Straight incoming solar ribbons divide into reflected and absorbed routes. Separate curved outgoing infrared paths continue into space.

Directions explain the mechanism. Ribbon width, brightness, spacing and count do not encode watts or measured shares.

03 / A changing rate

Energy still leaves the planet.

Greenhouse gases absorb and emit infrared radiation. Emission occurs in different directions, including toward the surface and toward space. The atmosphere is neither a solid lid nor a perfectly reflecting mirror.

Adding greenhouse gases initially reduces radiative cooling to space for a given climate state. That creates an imbalance. Warming changes emission in response; the point is a changed rate of energy loss, not heat that can never escape.

Both states retain an outgoing radiation route. This comparison has no numerical forcing scale.

Visual description and limits

Outgoing infrared crosses the atmosphere; short secondary paths show atmospheric emission both inward and outward. The comparison changes emphasis without closing the route to space.

Baseline and additional forcing are conceptual comparisons, not historical simulations or quantified emissions scenarios.

04 / Storage below the surface

The air is only part of the heat account.

The ocean takes up most of the additional energy stored by the warming Earth system. Its large heat capacity and circulation allow energy to accumulate below the surface while limiting the speed of surface warming.

That buffering does not mean the heat has disappeared. An ocean-heat inventory measures a different part of the changing system from the temperature record. The observation shown here covers the upper 2,000 meters, not the whole ocean or the entire planetary energy inventory.

An ocean cutaway exposes depth. Directed heat paths enter and move beneath the surface, while a restrained field marks storage.
Authored model still. Geometry and flows are schematic, not measured scales.
Visual description and limits

An ocean cutaway exposes depth. Directed heat paths enter and move beneath the surface, while a restrained field marks storage.

Depth and flow are schematic. The NOAA annual record begins in 2005 and uses a 1955-2006 reference climatology.

Inspect the ocean heat observation

05 / Transfer and return

Water changes form and place.

Evaporation moves water from ocean and land into the atmosphere. Condensation forms clouds, precipitation returns water to the surface, and runoff connects land with the ocean. Snow and ice can store water before it returns to the cycle.

Warming affects evaporation, atmospheric moisture and the conditions for precipitation. That does not imply that every place becomes wetter or that a global diagram can predict a local storm. Circulation and regional conditions matter.

Visual description and limits

One sparse loop follows evaporation upward, cloud formation, precipitation downward, runoff toward the ocean, and temporary storage in ice.

A conceptual water cycle, not a weather forecast, global precipitation field, or quantified water budget.

06 / Stocks and flows

An additional flow changes the stock.

Carbon moves among the atmosphere, vegetation, soils and ocean. Photosynthesis and ocean uptake remove carbon from the atmosphere; respiration, decomposition and ocean exchange can return it.

Human activity adds another transfer, especially by moving carbon from geological stores into the active cycle. Land-use changes also affect emissions and uptake. Natural sinks remove part of these additions, but the atmospheric stock rises while additions exceed removals.

Visual description and limits

Reservoirs connect with directional carbon paths. A separately labeled geological input joins the atmospheric route; return paths remain visible.

Reservoir size and path width are not carbon quantities. The CO2 observation is a global marine-surface concentration, not an emissions flow.

Inspect the carbon dioxide observation

07 / What follows the push

Feedback amplifies. Storage delays.

A forcing changes the energy balance. A feedback describes part of the system response that changes that balance again. Losing reflective ice can increase absorption; a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor, strengthening greenhouse absorption and emission.

Ocean heat uptake belongs beside these mechanisms, but in a different category. It stores energy and slows part of the surface response. Calling every response a positive feedback would obscure the role the ocean plays.

Reinforcing feedback

Less reflective ice exposes darker surfaces. Greater absorption can amplify the initial warming; the surface change is not a one-for-one change in planetary reflectivity.

Visual description and limits

One mechanism is emphasized at a time: ice loss and absorption, water vapor and radiation, or ocean depth and heat storage.

The first two examples are reinforcing feedbacks. Ocean uptake is labeled storage/buffering, not an equivalent positive-feedback loop.

08 / Changing the inputs

We changed the balance of an existing system.

Fossil-carbon release and land-use change alter the carbon account. Rising greenhouse-gas concentrations affect the energy balance. Other influences, including aerosols, also matter; this simplified machine does not quantify their net contribution.

The system response unfolds through reservoirs with different capacities and timescales. A change in emissions is therefore not the same thing as an immediate change in atmospheric concentration, surface temperature, or ocean heat.

Visual description and limits

A distinct human-input path enters the atmosphere while the ocean remains visible as a storage reservoir. The natural return paths do not disappear.

No invented sector shares, forcing magnitudes, historical simulation, policy projection, or attribution estimate is shown.

09 / Cross the evidence boundary

Leave the model. Read the measurements.

No single instrument observes the climate machine in full. Carbon dioxide, surface temperature, ocean heat and sea level each reveal a different aspect of its changing state.

Read these series in their own units and reference frames. Their slopes cannot be compared as if a part per million, a degree, a zettajoule and a millimeter were interchangeable. The sources and exact values remain available without the model.

Visual description and limits

The spatial specimen recedes as four explicitly measured time-series views take over the page. The transition marks a change in evidence type, not a calculation from animation.

Published observational products, with different periods, references and uncertainty definitions. They are not four independent causal-attribution experiments.

Schematic mechanismPublished observationsFour units. Four source records.

01 / Published observation

Atmospheric carbon dioxide

ppm / Complete calendar-year means
Reference: Absolute dry-air mole fraction: micromoles of CO2 per mole of dry air.

Atmospheric carbon dioxideGlobal marine-surface air sampling network. ppm; Absolute dry-air mole fraction: micromoles of CO2 per mole of dry air.. 47 source observations. Arrow keys inspect adjacent points; Home and End reach the endpoints. Touch or click to select; all values are also in the table.3.2e+23.4e+23.6e+23.8e+24e+24.2e+24.4e+21979199420102025
2025425.62 ppmSource uncertainty: ±0.050 ppm
2025: 425.62 ppm

Dots show annual estimates; vertical marks show plus or minus one published Monte Carlo-type standard deviation, not a 95% interval. Published Monte Carlo-type standard-deviation magnitude for the annual global mean; not a 95% confidence interval or uncertainty of an annual difference.

Intervals retain their actual scale. Some overlap or are smaller than a pixel; they are not enlarged for visibility. Inspect a point or open its exact values.

Not a Mauna Loa-only series or an emissions flow. The complete 2025 annual estimate remains subject to calibration and quality-control revisions.

NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory / Global annual mean concentration; snapshot 2026-09-10. Source, method and rights. Link to this observation.

Exact values / 47 observations
Atmospheric carbon dioxide. ppm. Complete calendar-year means. Published Monte Carlo-type standard-deviation magnitude for the annual global mean; not a 95% confidence interval or uncertainty of an annual difference.
YearValue (ppm)Source uncertainty (ppm)
1979336.850.1
1980338.910.07
1981340.110.08
1982340.850.03
1983342.530.06
1984344.070.07
1985345.540.07
1986346.970.07
1987348.680.1
1988351.160.07
1989352.790.06
1990354.060.07
1991355.40.06
1992356.090.06
1993356.830.07
1994358.330.09
1995360.180.04
1996361.930.04
1997363.040.05
1998365.70.05
1999367.790.06
2000368.960.06
2001370.560.05
2002372.580.04
2003375.140.04
2004376.940.05
2005378.980.05
2006381.150.05
2007382.90.05
2008385.020.04
2009386.50.04
2010388.750.06
2011390.620.06
2012392.650.07
2013395.40.06
2014397.340.06
2015399.650.05
2016403.070.07
2017405.220.07
2018407.610.07
2019410.070.08
2020412.440.07
2021414.70.06
2022417.080.09
2023419.350.1
2024422.790.09
2025425.620.05

02 / Published observation

Global surface temperature anomaly

°C / Complete calendar-year J-D means
Reference: Temperature anomaly relative to 1951-1980, not the landing page’s IGCC 1850-1900 baseline.

Global surface temperature anomalyGlobal land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature, NASA GISTEMP v4. °C; Temperature anomaly relative to 1951-1980, not the landing page’s IGCC 1850-1900 baseline.. 146 source observations. Arrow keys inspect adjacent points; Home and End reach the endpoints. Touch or click to select; all values are also in the table.−1−0.500.511.51880192819772025
2025+1.19 °C
2025: +1.19 °C

No matching uncertainty interval is supplied in this source file. No uncertainty band is fabricated. A matched NASA uncertainty ensemble would be required for an additional uncertainty analysis.

Incomplete 2026 is excluded. This is not a preindustrial threshold series or pure global surface-air temperature. No row-level uncertainty is supplied in this CSV.

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies / GISTEMP v4; retrieval snapshot 2026-09-12. Source, method and rights. Link to this observation.

Exact values / 146 observations
Global surface temperature anomaly. °C. Complete calendar-year means. No uncertainty band is fabricated. A matched NASA uncertainty ensemble would be required for an additional uncertainty analysis.
YearValue (°C)Source uncertainty (°C)
1880-0.18Not supplied
1881-0.09Not supplied
1882-0.12Not supplied
1883-0.18Not supplied
1884-0.29Not supplied
1885-0.34Not supplied
1886-0.32Not supplied
1887-0.37Not supplied
1888-0.18Not supplied
1889-0.11Not supplied
1890-0.36Not supplied
1891-0.23Not supplied
1892-0.28Not supplied
1893-0.32Not supplied
1894-0.31Not supplied
1895-0.23Not supplied
1896-0.12Not supplied
1897-0.12Not supplied
1898-0.28Not supplied
1899-0.18Not supplied
1900-0.09Not supplied
1901-0.16Not supplied
1902-0.29Not supplied
1903-0.38Not supplied
1904-0.48Not supplied
1905-0.27Not supplied
1906-0.23Not supplied
1907-0.39Not supplied
1908-0.43Not supplied
1909-0.49Not supplied
1910-0.44Not supplied
1911-0.45Not supplied
1912-0.37Not supplied
1913-0.36Not supplied
1914-0.17Not supplied
1915-0.15Not supplied
1916-0.37Not supplied
1917-0.46Not supplied
1918-0.3Not supplied
1919-0.28Not supplied
1920-0.28Not supplied
1921-0.19Not supplied
1922-0.29Not supplied
1923-0.27Not supplied
1924-0.27Not supplied
1925-0.22Not supplied
1926-0.11Not supplied
1927-0.22Not supplied
1928-0.2Not supplied
1929-0.36Not supplied
1930-0.16Not supplied
1931-0.09Not supplied
1932-0.16Not supplied
1933-0.29Not supplied
1934-0.13Not supplied
1935-0.2Not supplied
1936-0.15Not supplied
1937-0.03Not supplied
1938-0.01Not supplied
1939-0.02Not supplied
1940+0.12Not supplied
1941+0.18Not supplied
1942+0.06Not supplied
1943+0.09Not supplied
1944+0.2Not supplied
1945+0.09Not supplied
1946-0.07Not supplied
1947-0.03Not supplied
1948-0.11Not supplied
1949-0.11Not supplied
1950-0.18Not supplied
1951-0.07Not supplied
1952+0.01Not supplied
1953+0.08Not supplied
1954-0.13Not supplied
1955-0.14Not supplied
1956-0.19Not supplied
1957+0.05Not supplied
1958+0.06Not supplied
1959+0.03Not supplied
1960-0.02Not supplied
1961+0.06Not supplied
1962+0.03Not supplied
1963+0.05Not supplied
1964-0.2Not supplied
1965-0.11Not supplied
1966-0.06Not supplied
1967-0.02Not supplied
1968-0.08Not supplied
1969+0.05Not supplied
1970+0.03Not supplied
1971-0.08Not supplied
1972+0.01Not supplied
1973+0.16Not supplied
1974-0.07Not supplied
1975-0.01Not supplied
1976-0.1Not supplied
1977+0.18Not supplied
1978+0.07Not supplied
1979+0.16Not supplied
1980+0.26Not supplied
1981+0.32Not supplied
1982+0.14Not supplied
1983+0.31Not supplied
1984+0.16Not supplied
1985+0.12Not supplied
1986+0.18Not supplied
1987+0.32Not supplied
1988+0.39Not supplied
1989+0.27Not supplied
1990+0.45Not supplied
1991+0.41Not supplied
1992+0.22Not supplied
1993+0.23Not supplied
1994+0.32Not supplied
1995+0.45Not supplied
1996+0.33Not supplied
1997+0.47Not supplied
1998+0.61Not supplied
1999+0.38Not supplied
2000+0.39Not supplied
2001+0.53Not supplied
2002+0.63Not supplied
2003+0.62Not supplied
2004+0.53Not supplied
2005+0.68Not supplied
2006+0.64Not supplied
2007+0.66Not supplied
2008+0.54Not supplied
2009+0.66Not supplied
2010+0.72Not supplied
2011+0.61Not supplied
2012+0.65Not supplied
2013+0.68Not supplied
2014+0.75Not supplied
2015+0.9Not supplied
2016+1.01Not supplied
2017+0.92Not supplied
2018+0.85Not supplied
2019+0.98Not supplied
2020+1.01Not supplied
2021+0.85Not supplied
2022+0.89Not supplied
2023+1.17Not supplied
2024+1.29Not supplied
2025+1.19Not supplied

03 / Published observation

Ocean heat content in the upper 2000 m

ZJ / Complete annual means, 2005-2025
Reference: Heat-content anomaly relative to the 1955-2006 mean climatological fields.

Ocean heat content in the upper 2000 mWorld Ocean, depth 0-2000 m; not the full-depth ocean or whole Earth energy inventory. ZJ; Heat-content anomaly relative to the 1955-2006 mean climatological fields.. 21 source observations. Arrow keys inspect adjacent points; Home and End reach the endpoints. Touch or click to select; all values are also in the table.01e+22e+23e+24e+22005201220182025
2025325.33 ZJSource uncertainty: ±2.670 ZJ
2025: 325.33 ZJ

Dots show annual estimates; vertical marks show plus or minus one source standard error, not a 95% interval. Published WOse standard error, converted with WO from 10^22 J to ZJ by multiplying by 10. Plus/minus one standard error is not labeled as a 95% interval.

Intervals retain their actual scale. Some overlap or are smaller than a pixel; they are not enlarged for visibility. Inspect a point or open its exact values.

The yearly upper-2000m source begins in 2005. The longer NOAA product is pentadal and is not substituted as annual evidence. One ZJ is 10^21 joules.

NOAA/NCEI Ocean Climate Laboratory / Yearly product snapshot retrieved 2026-09-17. Source, method and rights. Link to this observation.

Exact values / 21 observations
Ocean heat content in the upper 2000 m. ZJ. Complete calendar-year means. Published WOse standard error, converted with WO from 10^22 J to ZJ by multiplying by 10. Plus/minus one standard error is not labeled as a 95% interval.
YearValue (ZJ)Source uncertainty (ZJ)
2005101.718.35
2006126.383.27
2007123.944.34
2008132.575.19
2009134.316.36
2010145.375.27
2011153.945.07
2012161.874.73
2013186.510.59
2014201.15.89
2015224.013.85
2016207.998.32
2017235.895.63
2018240.598.28
2019254.362.87
2020255.259.24
2021272.83.68
2022281.922.5
2023292.25.46
2024303.161.89
2025325.332.67

04 / Published observation

Global mean satellite sea-level anomaly

mm / Native approximately 10-day satellite cycles
Reference: Native AVISO publisher anomaly datum retained; the first 1993 cycle is not rebased to zero.

Global mean satellite sea-level anomalyGlobal reference-altimeter mission coverage, approximately 66°S-66°N. mm; Native AVISO publisher anomaly datum retained; the first 1993 cycle is not rebased to zero.. 1235 source observations. Arrow keys inspect adjacent points; Home and End reach the endpoints. Touch or click to select; all values are also in the table.−500501e+21.5e+21993200420152026
2026.594003 (decimal year)115.39 mmSource uncertainty: ±2.725 mm
2026.594003 (decimal year): 115.39 mm

Dots show native cycle estimates; vertical marks show the publisher marginal one-sigma uncertainty, not an interval for a change between dates. Publisher marginal one-sigma envelope, the square root of the covariance diagonal. It is not a 95% interval or the uncertainty of an endpoint difference; no covariance is invented.

Intervals retain their actual scale. Some overlap or are smaller than a pixel; they are not enlarged for visibility. Inspect a point or open its exact values.

GIA correction is already applied; seasonal signals are retained; the publisher two-month low-pass filter is retained. No additional smoothing or annual aggregation. Millimeter values and uncertainty are rounded to six decimals; native time is unchanged. Global mean is not local relative sea level.

CNES/CLS/LEGOS; AVISO+ / L2P-DT-2024 upstream processing; netCDF created 2026-09-12 03:00:59; retrieved 2026-09-17. Source, method and rights. Link to this observation.

Exact values / 1235 observations
Global mean satellite sea-level anomaly. mm. Native decimal years, not annual aggregates. Publisher marginal one-sigma envelope, the square root of the covariance diagonal. It is not a 95% interval or the uncertainty of an endpoint difference; no covariance is invented.
Decimal yearValue (mm)Source uncertainty (mm)
1993.0117954.0407515.133465
1993.0389422.808195.11653
1993.066091.8364215.100021
1993.0932371.6355155.084389
1993.1203852.5838445.06747
1993.1475324.0754495.050903
1993.174684.8576965.035564
1993.2018274.4581245.018689
1993.2289753.6117085.002375
1993.2561223.3819244.98672
1993.283273.9468014.971921
1993.3104184.4674024.955134
1993.3375654.119164.938796
1993.3647133.0454854.92277
1993.391862.1946634.906709
1993.4190082.2180814.891148
1993.4461552.9766074.876188
1993.4733034.0525754.858873
1993.500455.0880214.842941
1993.5275985.7557964.827196
1993.5547455.9531394.811436
1993.5818936.0971594.795994
1993.609046.810454.780769
1993.6361888.1709074.765669
1993.6633369.6465814.75019
1993.69048310.8528594.734739
1993.71763111.9951864.718894
1993.74477813.4101564.702536
1993.77192614.7956394.687798
1993.79907315.3482914.672022
1993.82622114.6288624.657095
1993.85336813.1271064.641567
1993.88051612.0518074.625716
1993.90766412.3077024.610944
1993.93481113.5509554.595462
1993.96195914.4855244.580661
1993.98910614.0926194.565844
1994.01693812.4460744.55068
1994.04408610.3178264.535503
1994.0712338.3611524.521029
1994.0983816.8791214.505774
1994.1255286.0844044.491611
1994.1526766.1628644.476068
1994.1798236.9506024.461224
1994.2069717.9491394.447286
1994.2341198.7146534.431644
1994.2612668.9861084.416904
1994.2884148.5446644.402202
1994.3155617.301694.387865
1994.3427095.6554154.37297
1994.3698564.3698834.35829
1994.3970043.8082494.343683
1994.4241513.7130994.329177
1994.4512993.6660714.314625
1994.4784473.5722834.300168
1994.5055943.7351684.285541
1994.5327424.4193864.27057
1994.5598895.5610014.256165
1994.5870376.9364244.241354
1994.6141848.4792244.227433
1994.64133210.2247754.213879
1994.66847911.9828334.200078
1994.69562713.4311654.186108
1994.72277414.4592394.171853
1994.74992215.3573414.15684
1994.77706916.6344934.142793
1994.80421718.1121884.128545
1994.83136518.6995244.114788
1994.85851217.6521684.101634
1994.8856615.7439574.086911
1994.91280714.6044684.073208
1994.93995514.8607844.059165
1994.96710215.5148284.045545
1994.9942515.3825734.031333
1995.02208214.3822564.018062
1995.04922913.1718094.004036
1995.07637712.0048963.99062
1995.10352510.8389373.977806
1995.13067210.1081583.96345
1995.1578210.2528863.949762
1995.18496710.9298983.936077
1995.21211511.3405213.922755
1995.23926211.0592583.909003
1995.2664110.2145183.895686
1995.2935579.0563593.882449
1995.3207057.7756783.869417
1995.3478526.8434963.855902
1995.3756.718623.842707
1995.4021487.2950763.829678
1995.4292957.9246743.816905
1995.4564438.0038593.803677
1995.483597.488893.79132
1995.5107386.7857643.778709
1995.5378856.4483653.766205
1995.5650336.9639053.754487
1995.592188.4185463.741818
1995.61932810.5078363.729685
1995.64647612.9663363.717311
1995.67362315.6369143.705003
1995.70077118.1756583.692558
1995.72791819.8295163.680137
1995.75506620.0141283.666851
1995.78221319.0322913.655393
1995.80936117.9653043.643189
1995.83650817.5692153.63013
1995.86365617.8681863.619318
1995.89080418.6620143.607202
1995.94509918.9906443.583875
1995.97224617.4423343.572693
1996.00007815.3592313.560698
1996.02722613.2149423.549265
1996.05437311.7280053.53868
1996.08152111.5200793.52756
1996.10866812.0358533.516271
1996.13581612.2166853.504916
1996.16296311.7663653.494289
1996.19011111.0836493.483477
1996.21725910.5589423.471958
1996.24440610.2133563.461539
1996.2715549.9623023.450369
1996.2987019.739643.440118
1996.3258499.6336763.429768
1996.3529969.6724073.418938
1996.3801449.6932523.4086
1996.4072919.4962573.398954
1996.4344399.0328293.38968
1996.4615878.5319223.37897
1996.4887348.5622853.369154
1996.5158829.5827463.359143
1996.54302911.3706393.348417
1996.57017713.038613.339018
1996.59732413.8170713.329005
1996.62447213.8790973.318962
1996.65161914.2391943.309428
1996.67876715.737163.300506
1996.70591418.1692193.291476
1996.73306220.6893323.281738
1996.7602122.8359963.272105
1996.78735724.696853.263865
1996.81450526.1379413.254312
1996.84165226.5474413.244671
1996.868825.4188253.23679
1996.89594722.9978713.227561
1996.92309520.2131873.219096
1996.95024217.956283.210976
1996.9773916.5741453.202511
1997.00248415.9141963.193952
1997.02963215.4523743.186051
1997.05677914.675163.177831
1997.08392713.5993293.169267
1997.11107412.7730353.161077
1997.13822212.6248333.153913
1997.16536912.9908623.146919
1997.19251713.3515253.138743
1997.21966513.2867883.131921
1997.24681212.7350943.124401
1997.2739612.0545453.117461
1997.30110711.729563.110949
1997.32825512.0835133.104494
1997.35540212.9491433.097293
1997.3825513.6342473.089437
1997.40969713.5863253.083387
1997.43684513.0214523.076118
1997.46399312.8082053.069172
1997.4911413.6324863.062843
1997.51828815.3381723.055843
1997.54543517.0779683.05
1997.57258318.1318743.044205
1997.5997318.7339893.038037
1997.62687819.8169813.0318
1997.65402522.0003823.026841
1997.68117325.045263.02053
1997.7083227.8860553.014665
1997.73546829.5145763.009401
1997.76261629.8372843.003182
1997.78976329.4824262.997141
1997.81691128.9834942.991411
1997.84405828.1956392.986361
1997.87120626.6529192.981661
1997.89835324.4501252.976524
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2018.17826180.7548841.796157
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2018.28685178.1873531.799244
2018.31399978.2019691.799984
2018.34114778.5468651.804506
2018.36829478.7511771.807274
2018.39544278.6299851.810331
2018.42258978.309141.812042
2018.44973778.1890551.812675
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2018.72121292.6270551.824425
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2018.82980396.2427131.829891
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2018.91124592.4090371.83615
2018.93839391.0063261.836617
2018.9655490.0043171.837409
2018.99268889.4655631.838499
2019.0205289.3753891.839064
2019.04766789.4674491.84069
2019.07481589.373961.841624
2019.10196389.0111721.843597
2019.1291188.6358371.845388
2019.15625888.5051261.847642
2019.18990988.3122381.850535
2019.21055387.9507931.852632
2019.237786.9670351.854104
2019.26484886.0955641.855231
2019.29199586.0340441.857029
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2019.64491396.1829651.87976
2019.67206197.4905831.879829
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2020.07995991.8441441.908502
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2023.119801101.9240562.307755
2023.146948102.0182212.313141
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2023.30983497.5880132.341432
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2026.376823110.1842582.699324
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2026.431118111.9644882.70488
2026.458265112.6819652.708818
2026.485413113.5843892.712717
2026.51256114.4837532.714276
2026.539708115.0687832.718684
2026.566856115.307032.722001
2026.594003115.3906422.725186

10 / Reassemble

Follow one connection at a time.

Return to the same Earth and select one system to follow. Each view preserves its explanation and its limits; the controls reveal a mechanism rather than predict a new climate.

Then move from the system to a particular question. The climate collection separates annual variation from sustained warming, emissions from atmospheric accumulation, and ocean heat from the temperature we feel above the surface.

Follow incoming shortwave sunlight, reflection, absorption, and outgoing longwave radiation. Energy can still leave the system.

Link to this exploration
Visual description and limits

Earth reassembles. Six conventional controls select energy, heat, water, carbon, ice, or human forcing without unbounded camera manipulation.

Exploration changes the explanatory view, not the published evidence or a physical forecast.

Audit the machine

What the model can and cannot establish.

The planet, layer separation, cloud shapes, ice coverage and moving paths are explanatory schematics. Their dimensions and timing are not physical measurements. The observations are a different evidence class: published agency products processed from frozen source files, with their own coverage, references and limitations.

These four historical records are not a scenario forecast or a new attribution study. Global mean sea level is not a local flood height. The selected ocean series covers the upper 2,000 meters, not the full ocean. Surface temperature combines land surface-air and sea-surface measurements; its NASA reference is 1951-1980, while the collection's IGCC Climate Pulse uses 1850-1900.

Annual records retain complete published calendar-year values. The sea-level record retains native decimal-year observations, the publisher's two-month filtering, its anomaly datum, its already-applied glacial-isostatic-adjustment correction, and its seasonal cycle. No additional smoothing or annual aggregation is applied. A source marginal uncertainty is not an uncertainty interval for a change between dates.

Snapshot v2026.09.17. Display-unit values are retained to six decimal places where conversion requires it; native time coordinates are preserved. Exact-table values refer to this processed snapshot, whose transformations and original input identities are documented in provenance.

How to read the uncertainty

NOAA carbon dioxide uncertainty, NOAA ocean-heat standard errors, and AVISO marginal one-sigma uncertainty do not represent the same statistical object. They retain separate labels. The compact NASA temperature file supplies no matching interval, so none is invented. No observation is assigned a common uncertainty by visual convention.

Sources and rights

  1. Trends in globally-averaged CO2; co2_annmean_gl.csv / NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory

    Lan, X., Tans, P., and Thoning, K. W., Trends in globally-averaged CO2 determined from NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory measurements, doi:10.15138/9N0H-ZH07. Snapshot retrieved 2026-09-10.

    Version: Global annual mean concentration; snapshot 2026-09-10. Retrieved: 2026-09-10.

    Read published year/mean/unc with the existing strict NOAA parser. Retain all 47 complete 1979-2025 annual means and reported Monte Carlo standard-deviation magnitudes in ppm; no rebasing or smoothing. Latest annual estimate remains revisable.

    Rights and use conditions: NOAA public data; acknowledge the investigators and preserve revision status.

    Source documentation 1 / Source documentation 2

  2. GISTEMP v4 Land-Ocean Temperature Index, GLB.Ts+dSST.csv / NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

    NASA GISS/GISTEMP, GISTEMP v4 (snapshot 2026-09-12); Lenssen et al. (2024), A GISTEMPv4 observational uncertainty ensemble, JGR Atmospheres 129, e2023JD040179, doi:10.1029/2023JD040179.

    Version: GISTEMP v4; retrieval snapshot 2026-09-12. Retrieved: 2026-09-12.

    Use the existing strict GISTEMP parser and published J-D Celsius values only with twelve complete months. Retain 1880-2025; exclude partial 2026 (8 of 12 months). Preserve 1951-1980 reference; do not divide this CSV by 100 or fabricate uncertainty.

    Rights and use conditions: NASA public scientific data; acknowledge NASA GISS/GISTEMP and cite webpage plus current scholarly paper. Not a CC-BY assertion.

    Source documentation 1 / Source documentation 2 / Source documentation 3

  3. Global Ocean Heat and Salt Content; h22-w0-2000m.dat yearly basin series / NOAA/NCEI Ocean Climate Laboratory

    Levitus et al. (2012), World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0-2000 m), 1955-2010, Geophysical Research Letters 39, L10603, doi:10.1029/2012GL051106; updated NOAA/NCEI yearly product retrieved 2026-09-17.

    Version: Yearly product snapshot retrieved 2026-09-17. Retrieved: 2026-09-17.

    Read the yearly World Ocean 0-2000m WO and WOse fields, 2005-2025. Calendar year = YEAR - 0.5. Multiply both by 10 from 10^22 J to ZJ; preserve 1955-2006 climatology and standard-error interpretation. No pentadal substitution or full-depth extrapolation.

    Rights and use conditions: NOAA public data; preserve attribution, provenance and revision status.

    Source documentation 1 / Source documentation 2 / Source documentation 3

  4. AVISO Global Mean Sea Level Indicator, merged reference missions / CNES/CLS/LEGOS; AVISO+

    CNES and CLS (2026), AVISO Global Mean Sea Level Indicator, CNES, doi:10.24400/527896/AVISO-2025.010. Produced by CNES/CLS/LEGOS and distributed by AVISO+.

    Version: L2P-DT-2024 upstream processing; netCDF created 2026-09-12 03:00:59; retrieved 2026-09-17. Retrieved: 2026-09-17.

    Preserve all 1235 native decimal-year cycles and the publisher anomaly datum. GIA is already corrected, seasonal signals retained, and the publisher two-month filter retained. Convert value and marginal one-sigma meters to millimeters and round those two fields to six decimals only. No rebasing, additional filtering, annual aggregation, invented date precision or difference interval.

    Rights and use conditions: AVISO License Agreement Issue 20, effective 2026-08-10: bespoke open license, NOT CC BY 4.0. Attribution and modification notice required. Original unmodified operational bulk redistribution requires authorization; internal research, scientific publications/figures/supplementary data and adapted material have stated exceptions. GMSL is not an Annex A noncommercial-only product.

    Source documentation 1 / Source documentation 2 / Source documentation 3

  5. IPCC AR6 WGI assessed mechanisms: reviewed climate-series reference record / IPCC / Cambridge University Press

    IPCC (2021), Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I; Forster et al., Chapter 7, Earth’s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.009. See sections 7.1-7.4 for forcing, radiative response, ocean heat storage and feedbacks.

    Version: AR6 Working Group I, 2021; reviewed reference record research-v2026.09.16. Retrieved: 2026-09-17.

    Assessed physical context, not a measurement series. SHA-256 pins the reused reviewed factual-reference record, not the entire IPCC report or chapter HTML. The feature’s diagrams are original schematics; no report text/graphics are copied. Ocean uptake is storage/buffering, not an equivalent reinforcing radiative feedback. The 91% ocean share is the assessed 1971-2018 whole-system heat inventory, not the selected upper-2000m series.

    Rights and use conditions: Attributed factual extraction and original paraphrase; report text and graphics are not redistributed.

    Source documentation 1 / Source documentation 2

The Earth model and rendered stills are original explanatory artwork. Continental outlines use public-domain Natural Earth geography. No political borders, observed cloud field, current ice map, or vegetation inventory is implied by the model.

AVISO data are credited to AVISO+/CNES/CLS/LEGOS. The bounded source snapshot supports this publication; it is not an operational raw-data mirror. The AVISO License is a bespoke license, not CC BY, and the public observation files identify unit conversion and rounding as modifications.

From the system to a question

Keep the distinctions. Follow the evidence.

Return to the 25-question climate atlas

This system guide complements the numbered research programme; it does not add a numbered study or change a primer's evidence status. Return to the beginning.