Skip to the fixed-sample model

The diffusion files / II

Microsoft research / independent analysis

An inquiry into who gets to use AI.

Education,
work and the
AI divide.

A large education gap within countries does not settle what explains the gap between them.

The fixed-sample experiment121 economies

Keep the country. Change the model.

Germany

DEU
Microsoft estimate
32.3%
Model fitted share
35.06%
Two distributions. The same economies.Inspect ↓
Published and fitted AI adoption across the same 121 economiesBoth curves use the same bandwidth and density scale. Solid cobalt is the published estimate; dashed emerald is the selected model. Each economy has equal weight. This is a compact preview of the complete raincloud exhibit and exact values below.020406080100%

AI User Share / % · Density height / per pp · Bandwidth 5.00 pp

Income + internet. The published value stays fixed. Only the model changes.

Microsoft AI Economy Institute / June 2026 / ages 15-64. Density across equally weighted economies, not individuals.

01 / Within Germany

A visible education divide.

High versus low formal education: 50.34% versus 17.55%.

Eurostat 2025 / ages 25-64 / any purpose

32.79pp

02 / Between 121 economies

A different model question.

Additional human-capital contrast in the combined model; 95% conditional interval: -3.37 to 3.56 pp.

Lower to upper quartile / not a causal effect

0.10pp

Different populations. Different questions. Neither identifies a causal education effect.

Methods & sources

Preparing interactive controls. The evidence is already readable.

In Germany, 50.34% of people aged 25-64 with high formal education reported using generative AI in the previous three months. Among those with low formal education, the share was 17.55%. That 32.79-percentage-point difference is substantial. It is also a comparison of groups within one country, not a test of why some countries use more AI than others.

This companion to Who Gets to Use AI? asks the second question without discarding the first. It joins Microsoft's frozen June 2026 adoption estimates to human capital and employment structure, keeps the countries constant as the model changes, and then returns to Eurostat's within-country evidence. The distinction matters: the schooling-based index adds little to the country model after income and connectivity, while services employment has a clearer equal-economy association. Even that association becomes weak and imprecise when larger populations receive more weight.

Within countries / survey evidence

The education gap is not a small one.

High-education groups report more AI use in all 35 complete national or statistical geographies in the frozen extract.

Exhibit 01 / Published estimates

The same question, different education groups

Frozen evidence / exact values below

Use in the previous three months / 2025

Purpose categories overlap. Work and private use are not parts that sum to the total.

35 complete geographies. 35 have higher high-education use. Any purpose; percentages within each group.

Individuals aged 25-64, within each formal-education group. No sampling intervals are reconstructed from these aggregate cells.

Low educationMedium educationHigh education

Selected specimen

Germany

Any purpose / 2025

Low education
17.55%
Medium education
26.98%
High education
50.34%
High minus low
32.79 pp
0%25%50%75%100%17.55%50.34%26.98%
Ordered by group gap / ppEvery row: 0 to 100%Gap

Hover or focus a row for exact values and flags. Tap or press Enter to carry that economy into the other exhibits.

Exact survey values: 35 complete education profiles
Eurostat 2025. Percent within each group. Individuals aged 25-64, within each formal-education group. All original flags are shown.
GeographyLow education / %Medium education / %High education / %Gap / pp
12.8939.4171.7558.86
14.0238.2672.4558.43
9.3027.5666.4057.10
0.4715.0456.8556.38
5.4228.8260.8855.46
11.9439.4666.1254.18
9.8627.4262.9153.05
19.2125.8568.7949.58
13.2629.1161.8548.59
1.2713.7645.4344.16
1.518.4945.4143.90
14.4316.3458.1743.74
16.8930.9358.9642.07
16.3725.5558.0241.65
7.8120.7148.4340.62
18.7033.8058.8340.13
2.6311.9442.7240.09
12.6319.5251.9139.28
3.6711.6142.6638.99
9.0743.5447.8438.77
17.6433.4655.9238.28
6.2213.0843.9137.69
22.7639.6960.2537.49
23.7736.6561.1337.36
26.5639.1763.4836.92
15.3127.7651.9936.68
16.7124.8452.7136.00
26.0440.3760.9934.95
18.9321.0753.0034.07
2.9314.2036.1733.24
6.4726.2139.5333.06
17.5526.9850.3432.79
5.9017.6536.4030.50
40.0943.4469.0628.97
48.7237.7063.5214.80
Eurostat isoc_ai_iaiu, 2025. Use in the previous three months; percentage within each education group, ages 25-64. Complete profiles only. The chart is descriptive; no causal education effect or sampling interval is inferred. Open the Eurostat extract ↗

Eurostat supplies the most direct evidence in this study about differences between education groups. These are published group estimates for people aged 25-64, using the same question and reporting period within each geography. Germany is not the entire argument: the median high-minus-low gap across the 35 complete profiles is 39.28 percentage points.

Education may help people recognize useful applications, assess an answer or translate a problem into a prompt. It is also associated with occupation, income, age and opportunities to use AI. The group comparison does not separate those mechanisms. A large gap is evidence of unequal reported use, not an estimate of what another qualification would cause.

Switching to work or private purposes changes the available sample as well as the question. Only 24 geographies have complete education profiles for each of those purposes; excluding cells carrying Eurostat's low-reliability u flag leaves 17. The chart states the current coverage, and the exact table preserves every source flag.

Between countries / the model experiment

Hold the countries constant.

Add skills, add job structure, or add both. The outcome and the 121 economies do not change.

Hold the sample fixed

The four primary specifications use the same 121 economies. Missing inputs stay unavailable.

Keep the sources separate

Microsoft: June 2026, ages 15-64. Eurostat: 2025, with group-specific populations and purposes.

Limit the inference

103 published-path clusters support conditional model intervals. Source uncertainty and causal effects are not identified.

Change predictors. Keep the countries.

One outcome. The same 121 economies. Each held-out fold removes an entire published-path cluster; lower error is better.

Start with income and connectivity. Every switch retains these same 121 economies. Held-out path-cluster error: 7.46 pp.

Exhibit 02 / Conditional model

What the country model leaves unexplained

Income + internet / 121 economies / June 2026

Selected economyPinned baselineOther economies
The same 121 economies: fitted versus published AI adoptionBoth axes run from zero to 80 percent. Vertical positions keep Microsoft's June 2026 estimate fixed. Horizontal positions change with the selected predictor blocks. The outlined square pins Germany's baseline when available. Use arrows to inspect, Enter to select; the table is an equivalent route.Published AI User Share / %002020404060608080Published exceeds fittedFitted exceeds publishedCurrent model fitted share / %Angola: Microsoft June 2026 11.40%; Income + internet fitted 14.81%; residual -3.41 pp. Model interval 12.53 to 17.41%, not source uncertainty.Albania: Microsoft June 2026 19.20%; Income + internet fitted 23.01%; residual -3.81 pp. Model interval 21.24 to 24.89%, not source uncertainty.United Arab Emirates: Microsoft June 2026 73.30%; Income + internet fitted 35.89%; residual 37.41 pp. Model interval 32.68 to 39.23%, not source uncertainty.Argentina: Microsoft June 2026 23.40%; Income + internet fitted 24.36%; residual -0.96 pp. Model interval 22.33 to 26.50%, not source uncertainty.Armenia: Microsoft June 2026 7.70%; Income + internet fitted 21.50%; residual -13.80 pp. Model interval 19.98 to 23.10%, not source uncertainty.Australia: Microsoft June 2026 40.70%; Income + internet fitted 34.68%; residual 6.02 pp. Model interval 31.62 to 37.87%, not source uncertainty.Austria: Microsoft June 2026 35.40%; Income + internet fitted 35.36%; residual 0.04 pp. Model interval 32.09 to 38.77%, not source uncertainty.Burundi: Microsoft June 2026 8.00%; Income + internet fitted 4.89%; residual 3.11 pp. Model interval 3.84 to 6.20%, not source uncertainty.Belgium: Microsoft June 2026 40.30%; Income + internet fitted 35.07%; residual 5.23 pp. Model interval 31.91 to 38.36%, not source uncertainty.Benin: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 9.81%; residual 0.59 pp. Model interval 8.45 to 11.36%, not source uncertainty.Burkina Faso: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 7.85%; residual 2.55 pp. Model interval 6.63 to 9.26%, not source uncertainty.Bangladesh: Microsoft June 2026 8.00%; Income + internet fitted 14.45%; residual -6.45 pp. Model interval 13.20 to 15.80%, not source uncertainty.Bulgaria: Microsoft June 2026 30.70%; Income + internet fitted 28.09%; residual 2.61 pp. Model interval 25.85 to 30.45%, not source uncertainty.Bolivia: Microsoft June 2026 13.30%; Income + internet fitted 16.39%; residual -3.09 pp. Model interval 14.29 to 18.73%, not source uncertainty.Brazil: Microsoft June 2026 20.20%; Income + internet fitted 21.24%; residual -1.04 pp. Model interval 19.41 to 23.20%, not source uncertainty.Botswana: Microsoft June 2026 15.00%; Income + internet fitted 20.80%; residual -5.80 pp. Model interval 18.17 to 23.70%, not source uncertainty.Central African Republic: Microsoft June 2026 9.10%; Income + internet fitted 5.03%; residual 4.07 pp. Model interval 4.00 to 6.30%, not source uncertainty.Canada: Microsoft June 2026 38.50%; Income + internet fitted 33.44%; residual 5.06 pp. Model interval 30.58 to 36.42%, not source uncertainty.Switzerland: Microsoft June 2026 39.10%; Income + internet fitted 38.76%; residual 0.34 pp. Model interval 34.77 to 42.90%, not source uncertainty.Chile: Microsoft June 2026 24.00%; Income + internet fitted 26.13%; residual -2.13 pp. Model interval 23.62 to 28.81%, not source uncertainty.China: Microsoft June 2026 17.50%; Income + internet fitted 23.09%; residual -5.59 pp. Model interval 20.67 to 25.71%, not source uncertainty.Cote D'Ivoire: Microsoft June 2026 13.70%; Income + internet fitted 12.98%; residual 0.72 pp. Model interval 11.31 to 14.85%, not source uncertainty.Cameroon: Microsoft June 2026 9.10%; Income + internet fitted 10.98%; residual -1.88 pp. Model interval 9.81 to 12.28%, not source uncertainty.Congo (DRC): Microsoft June 2026 9.10%; Income + internet fitted 6.13%; residual 2.97 pp. Model interval 5.01 to 7.48%, not source uncertainty.Congo: Microsoft June 2026 9.10%; Income + internet fitted 12.33%; residual -3.23 pp. Model interval 11.09 to 13.69%, not source uncertainty.Colombia: Microsoft June 2026 25.90%; Income + internet fitted 21.34%; residual 4.56 pp. Model interval 19.95 to 22.81%, not source uncertainty.Costa Rica: Microsoft June 2026 29.70%; Income + internet fitted 24.77%; residual 4.93 pp. Model interval 22.99 to 26.65%, not source uncertainty.Czech Republic: Microsoft June 2026 31.20%; Income + internet fitted 31.91%; residual -0.71 pp. Model interval 29.04 to 34.92%, not source uncertainty.Germany: Microsoft June 2026 32.30%; Income + internet fitted 35.06%; residual -2.76 pp. Model interval 31.78 to 38.49%, not source uncertainty.Denmark: Microsoft June 2026 32.40%; Income + internet fitted 36.16%; residual -3.76 pp. Model interval 32.90 to 39.55%, not source uncertainty.Dominican Republic: Microsoft June 2026 25.80%; Income + internet fitted 23.28%; residual 2.52 pp. Model interval 20.99 to 25.73%, not source uncertainty.Algeria: Microsoft June 2026 13.80%; Income + internet fitted 19.10%; residual -5.30 pp. Model interval 17.63 to 20.65%, not source uncertainty.Ecuador: Microsoft June 2026 20.30%; Income + internet fitted 18.14%; residual 2.16 pp. Model interval 16.56 to 19.84%, not source uncertainty.Egypt: Microsoft June 2026 15.50%; Income + internet fitted 19.87%; residual -4.37 pp. Model interval 18.64 to 21.16%, not source uncertainty.Spain: Microsoft June 2026 45.10%; Income + internet fitted 31.86%; residual 13.24 pp. Model interval 29.28 to 34.56%, not source uncertainty.Ethiopia: Microsoft June 2026 8.00%; Income + internet fitted 8.44%; residual -0.44 pp. Model interval 6.93 to 10.24%, not source uncertainty.Finland: Microsoft June 2026 30.60%; Income + internet fitted 33.38%; residual -2.78 pp. Model interval 30.52 to 36.37%, not source uncertainty.France: Microsoft June 2026 49.60%; Income + internet fitted 32.94%; residual 16.66 pp. Model interval 29.86 to 36.17%, not source uncertainty.Gabon: Microsoft June 2026 15.70%; Income + internet fitted 21.08%; residual -5.38 pp. Model interval 19.55 to 22.70%, not source uncertainty.United Kingdom: Microsoft June 2026 43.70%; Income + internet fitted 32.88%; residual 10.82 pp. Model interval 30.16 to 35.73%, not source uncertainty.Ghana: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 13.01%; residual -2.61 pp. Model interval 11.03 to 15.29%, not source uncertainty.Gambia: Microsoft June 2026 11.50%; Income + internet fitted 8.52%; residual 2.98 pp. Model interval 7.16 to 10.12%, not source uncertainty.Greece: Microsoft June 2026 21.50%; Income + internet fitted 28.64%; residual -7.14 pp. Model interval 26.49 to 30.89%, not source uncertainty.Guatemala: Microsoft June 2026 17.30%; Income + internet fitted 17.51%; residual -0.21 pp. Model interval 16.14 to 18.98%, not source uncertainty.Guyana: Microsoft June 2026 11.30%; Income + internet fitted 36.36%; residual -25.06 pp. Model interval 31.47 to 41.54%, not source uncertainty.Honduras: Microsoft June 2026 14.50%; Income + internet fitted 12.67%; residual 1.83 pp. Model interval 11.44 to 14.02%, not source uncertainty.Croatia: Microsoft June 2026 27.20%; Income + internet fitted 30.08%; residual -2.88 pp. Model interval 27.39 to 32.93%, not source uncertainty.Haiti: Microsoft June 2026 8.90%; Income + internet fitted 8.11%; residual 0.79 pp. Model interval 6.77 to 9.70%, not source uncertainty.Hungary: Microsoft June 2026 33.30%; Income + internet fitted 29.66%; residual 3.64 pp. Model interval 27.36 to 32.07%, not source uncertainty.Indonesia: Microsoft June 2026 14.80%; Income + internet fitted 18.54%; residual -3.74 pp. Model interval 17.31 to 19.82%, not source uncertainty.India: Microsoft June 2026 18.50%; Income + internet fitted 15.11%; residual 3.39 pp. Model interval 13.91 to 16.39%, not source uncertainty.Ireland: Microsoft June 2026 49.90%; Income + internet fitted 43.98%; residual 5.92 pp. Model interval 38.42 to 49.70%, not source uncertainty.Iran: Microsoft June 2026 12.80%; Income + internet fitted 20.11%; residual -7.31 pp. Model interval 18.02 to 22.37%, not source uncertainty.Iraq: Microsoft June 2026 13.00%; Income + internet fitted 17.32%; residual -4.32 pp. Model interval 15.21 to 19.67%, not source uncertainty.Israel: Microsoft June 2026 38.70%; Income + internet fitted 31.82%; residual 6.88 pp. Model interval 29.02 to 34.76%, not source uncertainty.Italy: Microsoft June 2026 31.40%; Income + internet fitted 32.88%; residual -1.48 pp. Model interval 29.87 to 36.04%, not source uncertainty.Jamaica: Microsoft June 2026 25.00%; Income + internet fitted 16.29%; residual 8.71 pp. Model interval 13.18 to 19.96%, not source uncertainty.Jordan: Microsoft June 2026 31.20%; Income + internet fitted 15.60%; residual 15.60 pp. Model interval 11.93 to 20.14%, not source uncertainty.Japan: Microsoft June 2026 24.70%; Income + internet fitted 31.16%; residual -6.46 pp. Model interval 28.32 to 34.14%, not source uncertainty.Kazakhstan: Microsoft June 2026 16.90%; Income + internet fitted 27.63%; residual -10.73 pp. Model interval 25.42 to 29.96%, not source uncertainty.Kenya: Microsoft June 2026 8.90%; Income + internet fitted 12.11%; residual -3.21 pp. Model interval 10.25 to 14.24%, not source uncertainty.Kyrgyzstan: Microsoft June 2026 10.00%; Income + internet fitted 12.96%; residual -2.96 pp. Model interval 9.50 to 17.44%, not source uncertainty.Cambodia: Microsoft June 2026 6.10%; Income + internet fitted 12.99%; residual -6.89 pp. Model interval 11.26 to 14.93%, not source uncertainty.South Korea: Microsoft June 2026 40.60%; Income + internet fitted 32.47%; residual 8.13 pp. Model interval 29.77 to 35.30%, not source uncertainty.Kuwait: Microsoft June 2026 22.60%; Income + internet fitted 30.68%; residual -8.08 pp. Model interval 27.94 to 33.55%, not source uncertainty.Laos: Microsoft June 2026 8.40%; Income + internet fitted 14.43%; residual -6.03 pp. Model interval 13.11 to 15.86%, not source uncertainty.Liberia: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 6.16%; residual 4.24 pp. Model interval 5.04 to 7.52%, not source uncertainty.Sri Lanka: Microsoft June 2026 7.60%; Income + internet fitted 18.33%; residual -10.73 pp. Model interval 16.22 to 20.65%, not source uncertainty.Lesotho: Microsoft June 2026 9.90%; Income + internet fitted 7.95%; residual 1.95 pp. Model interval 6.47 to 9.75%, not source uncertainty.Lithuania: Microsoft June 2026 25.10%; Income + internet fitted 31.45%; residual -6.35 pp. Model interval 28.81 to 34.22%, not source uncertainty.Morocco: Microsoft June 2026 12.00%; Income + internet fitted 14.64%; residual -2.64 pp. Model interval 11.30 to 18.76%, not source uncertainty.Moldova: Microsoft June 2026 19.10%; Income + internet fitted 19.61%; residual -0.51 pp. Model interval 18.21 to 21.09%, not source uncertainty.Madagascar: Microsoft June 2026 11.40%; Income + internet fitted 6.25%; residual 5.15 pp. Model interval 5.10 to 7.64%, not source uncertainty.Mexico: Microsoft June 2026 21.40%; Income + internet fitted 22.70%; residual -1.30 pp. Model interval 21.13 to 24.36%, not source uncertainty.Mali: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 8.39%; residual 2.01 pp. Model interval 7.22 to 9.72%, not source uncertainty.Mongolia: Microsoft June 2026 17.90%; Income + internet fitted 19.76%; residual -1.86 pp. Model interval 17.65 to 22.06%, not source uncertainty.Mozambique: Microsoft June 2026 11.40%; Income + internet fitted 5.91%; residual 5.49 pp. Model interval 4.82 to 7.22%, not source uncertainty.Mauritania: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 12.68%; residual -2.28 pp. Model interval 11.33 to 14.16%, not source uncertainty.Malawi: Microsoft June 2026 11.40%; Income + internet fitted 6.20%; residual 5.20 pp. Model interval 5.06 to 7.57%, not source uncertainty.Malaysia: Microsoft June 2026 22.60%; Income + internet fitted 26.94%; residual -4.34 pp. Model interval 24.21 to 29.85%, not source uncertainty.Namibia: Microsoft June 2026 15.40%; Income + internet fitted 15.78%; residual -0.38 pp. Model interval 14.64 to 16.98%, not source uncertainty.Niger: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 6.55%; residual 3.85 pp. Model interval 5.29 to 8.08%, not source uncertainty.Nigeria: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 14.14%; residual -3.74 pp. Model interval 12.13 to 16.43%, not source uncertainty.Nicaragua: Microsoft June 2026 12.50%; Income + internet fitted 13.65%; residual -1.15 pp. Model interval 12.43 to 14.98%, not source uncertainty.Netherlands: Microsoft June 2026 43.50%; Income + internet fitted 36.91%; residual 6.59 pp. Model interval 33.39 to 40.58%, not source uncertainty.Norway: Microsoft June 2026 49.40%; Income + internet fitted 39.85%; residual 9.55 pp. Model interval 35.70 to 44.16%, not source uncertainty.Nepal: Microsoft June 2026 14.60%; Income + internet fitted 11.13%; residual 3.47 pp. Model interval 9.96 to 12.43%, not source uncertainty.New Zealand: Microsoft June 2026 44.10%; Income + internet fitted 31.40%; residual 12.70 pp. Model interval 28.90 to 34.01%, not source uncertainty.Pakistan: Microsoft June 2026 11.90%; Income + internet fitted 11.56%; residual 0.34 pp. Model interval 10.24 to 13.02%, not source uncertainty.Panama: Microsoft June 2026 24.20%; Income + internet fitted 28.10%; residual -3.90 pp. Model interval 24.79 to 31.66%, not source uncertainty.Peru: Microsoft June 2026 17.30%; Income + internet fitted 19.16%; residual -1.86 pp. Model interval 17.29 to 21.19%, not source uncertainty.Philippines: Microsoft June 2026 20.70%; Income + internet fitted 15.83%; residual 4.87 pp. Model interval 14.61 to 17.13%, not source uncertainty.Poland: Microsoft June 2026 32.30%; Income + internet fitted 30.42%; residual 1.88 pp. Model interval 27.99 to 32.97%, not source uncertainty.Portugal: Microsoft June 2026 27.40%; Income + internet fitted 30.72%; residual -3.32 pp. Model interval 28.22 to 33.35%, not source uncertainty.Paraguay: Microsoft June 2026 12.60%; Income + internet fitted 19.54%; residual -6.94 pp. Model interval 17.76 to 21.45%, not source uncertainty.Qatar: Microsoft June 2026 43.50%; Income + internet fitted 42.45%; residual 1.05 pp. Model interval 37.47 to 47.59%, not source uncertainty.Romania: Microsoft June 2026 18.00%; Income + internet fitted 29.84%; residual -11.84 pp. Model interval 27.57 to 32.20%, not source uncertainty.Russia: Microsoft June 2026 9.90%; Income + internet fitted 29.44%; residual -19.54 pp. Model interval 27.12 to 31.86%, not source uncertainty.Rwanda: Microsoft June 2026 7.60%; Income + internet fitted 9.03%; residual -1.43 pp. Model interval 7.73 to 10.52%, not source uncertainty.Saudi Arabia: Microsoft June 2026 31.40%; Income + internet fitted 34.58%; residual -3.18 pp. Model interval 31.57 to 37.71%, not source uncertainty.Senegal: Microsoft June 2026 14.40%; Income + internet fitted 10.36%; residual 4.04 pp. Model interval 8.76 to 12.21%, not source uncertainty.Singapore: Microsoft June 2026 64.30%; Income + internet fitted 45.26%; residual 19.04 pp. Model interval 38.90 to 51.78%, not source uncertainty.Sierra Leone: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 8.74%; residual 1.66 pp. Model interval 7.27 to 10.46%, not source uncertainty.El Salvador: Microsoft June 2026 20.10%; Income + internet fitted 16.76%; residual 3.34 pp. Model interval 15.64 to 17.94%, not source uncertainty.Serbia: Microsoft June 2026 25.30%; Income + internet fitted 25.20%; residual 0.10 pp. Model interval 23.39 to 27.11%, not source uncertainty.Slovakia: Microsoft June 2026 27.10%; Income + internet fitted 29.55%; residual -2.45 pp. Model interval 27.32 to 31.88%, not source uncertainty.Slovenia: Microsoft June 2026 30.10%; Income + internet fitted 31.84%; residual -1.74 pp. Model interval 29.19 to 34.62%, not source uncertainty.Sweden: Microsoft June 2026 37.30%; Income + internet fitted 34.52%; residual 2.78 pp. Model interval 31.48 to 37.70%, not source uncertainty.Togo: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 9.01%; residual 1.39 pp. Model interval 7.84 to 10.34%, not source uncertainty.Thailand: Microsoft June 2026 13.40%; Income + internet fitted 22.23%; residual -8.83 pp. Model interval 19.82 to 24.84%, not source uncertainty.Tajikistan: Microsoft June 2026 6.30%; Income + internet fitted 10.72%; residual -4.42 pp. Model interval 9.36 to 12.25%, not source uncertainty.Tunisia: Microsoft June 2026 13.90%; Income + internet fitted 17.41%; residual -3.51 pp. Model interval 15.78 to 19.18%, not source uncertainty.Türkiye: Microsoft June 2026 18.90%; Income + internet fitted 28.88%; residual -9.98 pp. Model interval 26.72 to 31.14%, not source uncertainty.Tanzania: Microsoft June 2026 8.00%; Income + internet fitted 9.58%; residual -1.58 pp. Model interval 8.16 to 11.21%, not source uncertainty.Uganda: Microsoft June 2026 8.00%; Income + internet fitted 8.50%; residual -0.50 pp. Model interval 6.42 to 11.18%, not source uncertainty.Uruguay: Microsoft June 2026 25.70%; Income + internet fitted 26.35%; residual -0.65 pp. Model interval 24.23 to 28.59%, not source uncertainty.United States: Microsoft June 2026 33.00%; Income + internet fitted 37.11%; residual -4.11 pp. Model interval 33.36 to 41.01%, not source uncertainty.Vietnam: Microsoft June 2026 27.90%; Income + internet fitted 18.35%; residual 9.55 pp. Model interval 16.13 to 20.81%, not source uncertainty.South Africa: Microsoft June 2026 23.90%; Income + internet fitted 17.93%; residual 5.97 pp. Model interval 16.20 to 19.79%, not source uncertainty.Zambia: Microsoft June 2026 13.30%; Income + internet fitted 9.67%; residual 3.63 pp. Model interval 7.55 to 12.30%, not source uncertainty.Zimbabwe: Microsoft June 2026 8.90%; Income + internet fitted 11.36%; residual -2.46 pp. Model interval 10.04 to 12.83%, not source uncertainty.DEU

Hover, focus or tap to inspect an economy. Arrow keys move through countries; Enter selects. No intermediate frame is a historical observation.

The same 121 economies: fitted versus published AI adoptionBoth axes run from zero to 80 percent. Vertical positions keep Microsoft's June 2026 estimate fixed. Horizontal positions change with the selected predictor blocks. The outlined square pins Germany's baseline when available. Use arrows to inspect, Enter to select; the table is an equivalent route.Published AI User Share / %002020404060608080Published exceeds fittedFitted exceeds publishedCurrent model fitted share / %Angola: Microsoft June 2026 11.40%; Income + internet fitted 14.81%; residual -3.41 pp. Model interval 12.53 to 17.41%, not source uncertainty.Albania: Microsoft June 2026 19.20%; Income + internet fitted 23.01%; residual -3.81 pp. Model interval 21.24 to 24.89%, not source uncertainty.United Arab Emirates: Microsoft June 2026 73.30%; Income + internet fitted 35.89%; residual 37.41 pp. Model interval 32.68 to 39.23%, not source uncertainty.Argentina: Microsoft June 2026 23.40%; Income + internet fitted 24.36%; residual -0.96 pp. Model interval 22.33 to 26.50%, not source uncertainty.Armenia: Microsoft June 2026 7.70%; Income + internet fitted 21.50%; residual -13.80 pp. Model interval 19.98 to 23.10%, not source uncertainty.Australia: Microsoft June 2026 40.70%; Income + internet fitted 34.68%; residual 6.02 pp. Model interval 31.62 to 37.87%, not source uncertainty.Austria: Microsoft June 2026 35.40%; Income + internet fitted 35.36%; residual 0.04 pp. Model interval 32.09 to 38.77%, not source uncertainty.Burundi: Microsoft June 2026 8.00%; Income + internet fitted 4.89%; residual 3.11 pp. Model interval 3.84 to 6.20%, not source uncertainty.Belgium: Microsoft June 2026 40.30%; Income + internet fitted 35.07%; residual 5.23 pp. Model interval 31.91 to 38.36%, not source uncertainty.Benin: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 9.81%; residual 0.59 pp. Model interval 8.45 to 11.36%, not source uncertainty.Burkina Faso: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 7.85%; residual 2.55 pp. Model interval 6.63 to 9.26%, not source uncertainty.Bangladesh: Microsoft June 2026 8.00%; Income + internet fitted 14.45%; residual -6.45 pp. Model interval 13.20 to 15.80%, not source uncertainty.Bulgaria: Microsoft June 2026 30.70%; Income + internet fitted 28.09%; residual 2.61 pp. Model interval 25.85 to 30.45%, not source uncertainty.Bolivia: Microsoft June 2026 13.30%; Income + internet fitted 16.39%; residual -3.09 pp. Model interval 14.29 to 18.73%, not source uncertainty.Brazil: Microsoft June 2026 20.20%; Income + internet fitted 21.24%; residual -1.04 pp. Model interval 19.41 to 23.20%, not source uncertainty.Botswana: Microsoft June 2026 15.00%; Income + internet fitted 20.80%; residual -5.80 pp. Model interval 18.17 to 23.70%, not source uncertainty.Central African Republic: Microsoft June 2026 9.10%; Income + internet fitted 5.03%; residual 4.07 pp. Model interval 4.00 to 6.30%, not source uncertainty.Canada: Microsoft June 2026 38.50%; Income + internet fitted 33.44%; residual 5.06 pp. Model interval 30.58 to 36.42%, not source uncertainty.Switzerland: Microsoft June 2026 39.10%; Income + internet fitted 38.76%; residual 0.34 pp. Model interval 34.77 to 42.90%, not source uncertainty.Chile: Microsoft June 2026 24.00%; Income + internet fitted 26.13%; residual -2.13 pp. Model interval 23.62 to 28.81%, not source uncertainty.China: Microsoft June 2026 17.50%; Income + internet fitted 23.09%; residual -5.59 pp. Model interval 20.67 to 25.71%, not source uncertainty.Cote D'Ivoire: Microsoft June 2026 13.70%; Income + internet fitted 12.98%; residual 0.72 pp. Model interval 11.31 to 14.85%, not source uncertainty.Cameroon: Microsoft June 2026 9.10%; Income + internet fitted 10.98%; residual -1.88 pp. Model interval 9.81 to 12.28%, not source uncertainty.Congo (DRC): Microsoft June 2026 9.10%; Income + internet fitted 6.13%; residual 2.97 pp. Model interval 5.01 to 7.48%, not source uncertainty.Congo: Microsoft June 2026 9.10%; Income + internet fitted 12.33%; residual -3.23 pp. Model interval 11.09 to 13.69%, not source uncertainty.Colombia: Microsoft June 2026 25.90%; Income + internet fitted 21.34%; residual 4.56 pp. Model interval 19.95 to 22.81%, not source uncertainty.Costa Rica: Microsoft June 2026 29.70%; Income + internet fitted 24.77%; residual 4.93 pp. Model interval 22.99 to 26.65%, not source uncertainty.Czech Republic: Microsoft June 2026 31.20%; Income + internet fitted 31.91%; residual -0.71 pp. Model interval 29.04 to 34.92%, not source uncertainty.Germany: Microsoft June 2026 32.30%; Income + internet fitted 35.06%; residual -2.76 pp. Model interval 31.78 to 38.49%, not source uncertainty.Denmark: Microsoft June 2026 32.40%; Income + internet fitted 36.16%; residual -3.76 pp. Model interval 32.90 to 39.55%, not source uncertainty.Dominican Republic: Microsoft June 2026 25.80%; Income + internet fitted 23.28%; residual 2.52 pp. Model interval 20.99 to 25.73%, not source uncertainty.Algeria: Microsoft June 2026 13.80%; Income + internet fitted 19.10%; residual -5.30 pp. Model interval 17.63 to 20.65%, not source uncertainty.Ecuador: Microsoft June 2026 20.30%; Income + internet fitted 18.14%; residual 2.16 pp. Model interval 16.56 to 19.84%, not source uncertainty.Egypt: Microsoft June 2026 15.50%; Income + internet fitted 19.87%; residual -4.37 pp. Model interval 18.64 to 21.16%, not source uncertainty.Spain: Microsoft June 2026 45.10%; Income + internet fitted 31.86%; residual 13.24 pp. Model interval 29.28 to 34.56%, not source uncertainty.Ethiopia: Microsoft June 2026 8.00%; Income + internet fitted 8.44%; residual -0.44 pp. Model interval 6.93 to 10.24%, not source uncertainty.Finland: Microsoft June 2026 30.60%; Income + internet fitted 33.38%; residual -2.78 pp. Model interval 30.52 to 36.37%, not source uncertainty.France: Microsoft June 2026 49.60%; Income + internet fitted 32.94%; residual 16.66 pp. Model interval 29.86 to 36.17%, not source uncertainty.Gabon: Microsoft June 2026 15.70%; Income + internet fitted 21.08%; residual -5.38 pp. Model interval 19.55 to 22.70%, not source uncertainty.United Kingdom: Microsoft June 2026 43.70%; Income + internet fitted 32.88%; residual 10.82 pp. Model interval 30.16 to 35.73%, not source uncertainty.Ghana: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 13.01%; residual -2.61 pp. Model interval 11.03 to 15.29%, not source uncertainty.Gambia: Microsoft June 2026 11.50%; Income + internet fitted 8.52%; residual 2.98 pp. Model interval 7.16 to 10.12%, not source uncertainty.Greece: Microsoft June 2026 21.50%; Income + internet fitted 28.64%; residual -7.14 pp. Model interval 26.49 to 30.89%, not source uncertainty.Guatemala: Microsoft June 2026 17.30%; Income + internet fitted 17.51%; residual -0.21 pp. Model interval 16.14 to 18.98%, not source uncertainty.Guyana: Microsoft June 2026 11.30%; Income + internet fitted 36.36%; residual -25.06 pp. Model interval 31.47 to 41.54%, not source uncertainty.Honduras: Microsoft June 2026 14.50%; Income + internet fitted 12.67%; residual 1.83 pp. Model interval 11.44 to 14.02%, not source uncertainty.Croatia: Microsoft June 2026 27.20%; Income + internet fitted 30.08%; residual -2.88 pp. Model interval 27.39 to 32.93%, not source uncertainty.Haiti: Microsoft June 2026 8.90%; Income + internet fitted 8.11%; residual 0.79 pp. Model interval 6.77 to 9.70%, not source uncertainty.Hungary: Microsoft June 2026 33.30%; Income + internet fitted 29.66%; residual 3.64 pp. Model interval 27.36 to 32.07%, not source uncertainty.Indonesia: Microsoft June 2026 14.80%; Income + internet fitted 18.54%; residual -3.74 pp. Model interval 17.31 to 19.82%, not source uncertainty.India: Microsoft June 2026 18.50%; Income + internet fitted 15.11%; residual 3.39 pp. Model interval 13.91 to 16.39%, not source uncertainty.Ireland: Microsoft June 2026 49.90%; Income + internet fitted 43.98%; residual 5.92 pp. Model interval 38.42 to 49.70%, not source uncertainty.Iran: Microsoft June 2026 12.80%; Income + internet fitted 20.11%; residual -7.31 pp. Model interval 18.02 to 22.37%, not source uncertainty.Iraq: Microsoft June 2026 13.00%; Income + internet fitted 17.32%; residual -4.32 pp. Model interval 15.21 to 19.67%, not source uncertainty.Israel: Microsoft June 2026 38.70%; Income + internet fitted 31.82%; residual 6.88 pp. Model interval 29.02 to 34.76%, not source uncertainty.Italy: Microsoft June 2026 31.40%; Income + internet fitted 32.88%; residual -1.48 pp. Model interval 29.87 to 36.04%, not source uncertainty.Jamaica: Microsoft June 2026 25.00%; Income + internet fitted 16.29%; residual 8.71 pp. Model interval 13.18 to 19.96%, not source uncertainty.Jordan: Microsoft June 2026 31.20%; Income + internet fitted 15.60%; residual 15.60 pp. Model interval 11.93 to 20.14%, not source uncertainty.Japan: Microsoft June 2026 24.70%; Income + internet fitted 31.16%; residual -6.46 pp. Model interval 28.32 to 34.14%, not source uncertainty.Kazakhstan: Microsoft June 2026 16.90%; Income + internet fitted 27.63%; residual -10.73 pp. Model interval 25.42 to 29.96%, not source uncertainty.Kenya: Microsoft June 2026 8.90%; Income + internet fitted 12.11%; residual -3.21 pp. Model interval 10.25 to 14.24%, not source uncertainty.Kyrgyzstan: Microsoft June 2026 10.00%; Income + internet fitted 12.96%; residual -2.96 pp. Model interval 9.50 to 17.44%, not source uncertainty.Cambodia: Microsoft June 2026 6.10%; Income + internet fitted 12.99%; residual -6.89 pp. Model interval 11.26 to 14.93%, not source uncertainty.South Korea: Microsoft June 2026 40.60%; Income + internet fitted 32.47%; residual 8.13 pp. Model interval 29.77 to 35.30%, not source uncertainty.Kuwait: Microsoft June 2026 22.60%; Income + internet fitted 30.68%; residual -8.08 pp. Model interval 27.94 to 33.55%, not source uncertainty.Laos: Microsoft June 2026 8.40%; Income + internet fitted 14.43%; residual -6.03 pp. Model interval 13.11 to 15.86%, not source uncertainty.Liberia: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 6.16%; residual 4.24 pp. Model interval 5.04 to 7.52%, not source uncertainty.Sri Lanka: Microsoft June 2026 7.60%; Income + internet fitted 18.33%; residual -10.73 pp. Model interval 16.22 to 20.65%, not source uncertainty.Lesotho: Microsoft June 2026 9.90%; Income + internet fitted 7.95%; residual 1.95 pp. Model interval 6.47 to 9.75%, not source uncertainty.Lithuania: Microsoft June 2026 25.10%; Income + internet fitted 31.45%; residual -6.35 pp. Model interval 28.81 to 34.22%, not source uncertainty.Morocco: Microsoft June 2026 12.00%; Income + internet fitted 14.64%; residual -2.64 pp. Model interval 11.30 to 18.76%, not source uncertainty.Moldova: Microsoft June 2026 19.10%; Income + internet fitted 19.61%; residual -0.51 pp. Model interval 18.21 to 21.09%, not source uncertainty.Madagascar: Microsoft June 2026 11.40%; Income + internet fitted 6.25%; residual 5.15 pp. Model interval 5.10 to 7.64%, not source uncertainty.Mexico: Microsoft June 2026 21.40%; Income + internet fitted 22.70%; residual -1.30 pp. Model interval 21.13 to 24.36%, not source uncertainty.Mali: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 8.39%; residual 2.01 pp. Model interval 7.22 to 9.72%, not source uncertainty.Mongolia: Microsoft June 2026 17.90%; Income + internet fitted 19.76%; residual -1.86 pp. Model interval 17.65 to 22.06%, not source uncertainty.Mozambique: Microsoft June 2026 11.40%; Income + internet fitted 5.91%; residual 5.49 pp. Model interval 4.82 to 7.22%, not source uncertainty.Mauritania: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 12.68%; residual -2.28 pp. Model interval 11.33 to 14.16%, not source uncertainty.Malawi: Microsoft June 2026 11.40%; Income + internet fitted 6.20%; residual 5.20 pp. Model interval 5.06 to 7.57%, not source uncertainty.Malaysia: Microsoft June 2026 22.60%; Income + internet fitted 26.94%; residual -4.34 pp. Model interval 24.21 to 29.85%, not source uncertainty.Namibia: Microsoft June 2026 15.40%; Income + internet fitted 15.78%; residual -0.38 pp. Model interval 14.64 to 16.98%, not source uncertainty.Niger: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 6.55%; residual 3.85 pp. Model interval 5.29 to 8.08%, not source uncertainty.Nigeria: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 14.14%; residual -3.74 pp. Model interval 12.13 to 16.43%, not source uncertainty.Nicaragua: Microsoft June 2026 12.50%; Income + internet fitted 13.65%; residual -1.15 pp. Model interval 12.43 to 14.98%, not source uncertainty.Netherlands: Microsoft June 2026 43.50%; Income + internet fitted 36.91%; residual 6.59 pp. Model interval 33.39 to 40.58%, not source uncertainty.Norway: Microsoft June 2026 49.40%; Income + internet fitted 39.85%; residual 9.55 pp. Model interval 35.70 to 44.16%, not source uncertainty.Nepal: Microsoft June 2026 14.60%; Income + internet fitted 11.13%; residual 3.47 pp. Model interval 9.96 to 12.43%, not source uncertainty.New Zealand: Microsoft June 2026 44.10%; Income + internet fitted 31.40%; residual 12.70 pp. Model interval 28.90 to 34.01%, not source uncertainty.Pakistan: Microsoft June 2026 11.90%; Income + internet fitted 11.56%; residual 0.34 pp. Model interval 10.24 to 13.02%, not source uncertainty.Panama: Microsoft June 2026 24.20%; Income + internet fitted 28.10%; residual -3.90 pp. Model interval 24.79 to 31.66%, not source uncertainty.Peru: Microsoft June 2026 17.30%; Income + internet fitted 19.16%; residual -1.86 pp. Model interval 17.29 to 21.19%, not source uncertainty.Philippines: Microsoft June 2026 20.70%; Income + internet fitted 15.83%; residual 4.87 pp. Model interval 14.61 to 17.13%, not source uncertainty.Poland: Microsoft June 2026 32.30%; Income + internet fitted 30.42%; residual 1.88 pp. Model interval 27.99 to 32.97%, not source uncertainty.Portugal: Microsoft June 2026 27.40%; Income + internet fitted 30.72%; residual -3.32 pp. Model interval 28.22 to 33.35%, not source uncertainty.Paraguay: Microsoft June 2026 12.60%; Income + internet fitted 19.54%; residual -6.94 pp. Model interval 17.76 to 21.45%, not source uncertainty.Qatar: Microsoft June 2026 43.50%; Income + internet fitted 42.45%; residual 1.05 pp. Model interval 37.47 to 47.59%, not source uncertainty.Romania: Microsoft June 2026 18.00%; Income + internet fitted 29.84%; residual -11.84 pp. Model interval 27.57 to 32.20%, not source uncertainty.Russia: Microsoft June 2026 9.90%; Income + internet fitted 29.44%; residual -19.54 pp. Model interval 27.12 to 31.86%, not source uncertainty.Rwanda: Microsoft June 2026 7.60%; Income + internet fitted 9.03%; residual -1.43 pp. Model interval 7.73 to 10.52%, not source uncertainty.Saudi Arabia: Microsoft June 2026 31.40%; Income + internet fitted 34.58%; residual -3.18 pp. Model interval 31.57 to 37.71%, not source uncertainty.Senegal: Microsoft June 2026 14.40%; Income + internet fitted 10.36%; residual 4.04 pp. Model interval 8.76 to 12.21%, not source uncertainty.Singapore: Microsoft June 2026 64.30%; Income + internet fitted 45.26%; residual 19.04 pp. Model interval 38.90 to 51.78%, not source uncertainty.Sierra Leone: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 8.74%; residual 1.66 pp. Model interval 7.27 to 10.46%, not source uncertainty.El Salvador: Microsoft June 2026 20.10%; Income + internet fitted 16.76%; residual 3.34 pp. Model interval 15.64 to 17.94%, not source uncertainty.Serbia: Microsoft June 2026 25.30%; Income + internet fitted 25.20%; residual 0.10 pp. Model interval 23.39 to 27.11%, not source uncertainty.Slovakia: Microsoft June 2026 27.10%; Income + internet fitted 29.55%; residual -2.45 pp. Model interval 27.32 to 31.88%, not source uncertainty.Slovenia: Microsoft June 2026 30.10%; Income + internet fitted 31.84%; residual -1.74 pp. Model interval 29.19 to 34.62%, not source uncertainty.Sweden: Microsoft June 2026 37.30%; Income + internet fitted 34.52%; residual 2.78 pp. Model interval 31.48 to 37.70%, not source uncertainty.Togo: Microsoft June 2026 10.40%; Income + internet fitted 9.01%; residual 1.39 pp. Model interval 7.84 to 10.34%, not source uncertainty.Thailand: Microsoft June 2026 13.40%; Income + internet fitted 22.23%; residual -8.83 pp. Model interval 19.82 to 24.84%, not source uncertainty.Tajikistan: Microsoft June 2026 6.30%; Income + internet fitted 10.72%; residual -4.42 pp. Model interval 9.36 to 12.25%, not source uncertainty.Tunisia: Microsoft June 2026 13.90%; Income + internet fitted 17.41%; residual -3.51 pp. Model interval 15.78 to 19.18%, not source uncertainty.Türkiye: Microsoft June 2026 18.90%; Income + internet fitted 28.88%; residual -9.98 pp. Model interval 26.72 to 31.14%, not source uncertainty.Tanzania: Microsoft June 2026 8.00%; Income + internet fitted 9.58%; residual -1.58 pp. Model interval 8.16 to 11.21%, not source uncertainty.Uganda: Microsoft June 2026 8.00%; Income + internet fitted 8.50%; residual -0.50 pp. Model interval 6.42 to 11.18%, not source uncertainty.Uruguay: Microsoft June 2026 25.70%; Income + internet fitted 26.35%; residual -0.65 pp. Model interval 24.23 to 28.59%, not source uncertainty.United States: Microsoft June 2026 33.00%; Income + internet fitted 37.11%; residual -4.11 pp. Model interval 33.36 to 41.01%, not source uncertainty.Vietnam: Microsoft June 2026 27.90%; Income + internet fitted 18.35%; residual 9.55 pp. Model interval 16.13 to 20.81%, not source uncertainty.South Africa: Microsoft June 2026 23.90%; Income + internet fitted 17.93%; residual 5.97 pp. Model interval 16.20 to 19.79%, not source uncertainty.Zambia: Microsoft June 2026 13.30%; Income + internet fitted 9.67%; residual 3.63 pp. Model interval 7.55 to 12.30%, not source uncertainty.Zimbabwe: Microsoft June 2026 8.90%; Income + internet fitted 11.36%; residual -2.46 pp. Model interval 10.04 to 12.83%, not source uncertainty.DEU

Hover, focus or tap to inspect an economy. Arrow keys move through countries; Enter selects. No intermediate frame is a historical observation.

Moving marks show an interface transition between model specifications, never intermediate historical observations. Country-specific conditional intervals are in the card and table, not plotted as uncertainty in the source estimate.

Exact values: all 121 economies and all four specifications
Percent of population aged 15-64. Microsoft: June 2026. Each fitted entry shows the conditional mean and its 95% model interval, not source-estimate uncertainty.
EconomyPublishedIncome + internetAdd human capitalAdd servicesAdd both
11.4014.81
[12.53, 17.41]
14.10
[11.02, 17.87]
14.03
[11.99, 16.36]
13.98
[11.29, 17.20]
19.2023.01
[21.24, 24.89]
23.03
[21.26, 24.91]
18.46
[15.43, 21.93]
18.47
[15.48, 21.89]
73.3035.89
[32.68, 39.23]
35.56
[31.86, 39.45]
33.14
[29.36, 37.15]
33.12
[29.04, 37.47]
23.4024.36
[22.33, 26.50]
24.47
[22.43, 26.62]
26.45
[24.46, 28.54]
26.46
[24.45, 28.56]
7.7021.50
[19.98, 23.10]
21.79
[20.08, 23.60]
19.05
[16.94, 21.36]
19.08
[16.93, 21.42]
40.7034.68
[31.62, 37.87]
34.94
[32.12, 37.86]
36.60
[33.75, 39.55]
36.62
[33.92, 39.40]
35.4035.36
[32.09, 38.77]
35.35
[32.05, 38.79]
34.52
[31.26, 37.93]
34.52
[31.26, 37.93]
8.004.89
[3.84, 6.20]
4.93
[3.82, 6.33]
4.28
[3.35, 5.46]
4.29
[3.31, 5.53]
40.3035.07
[31.91, 38.36]
34.62
[30.70, 38.75]
37.18
[34.23, 40.21]
37.14
[33.41, 41.02]
10.409.81
[8.45, 11.36]
9.83
[8.44, 11.43]
10.39
[9.02, 11.93]
10.39
[9.01, 11.95]
10.407.85
[6.63, 9.26]
7.63
[6.39, 9.09]
7.78
[6.62, 9.12]
7.76
[6.64, 9.06]
8.0014.45
[13.20, 15.80]
14.23
[12.80, 15.79]
12.50
[10.88, 14.32]
12.49
[10.80, 14.40]
30.7028.09
[25.85, 30.45]
28.24
[26.15, 30.44]
27.60
[25.39, 29.92]
27.61
[25.53, 29.79]
13.3016.39
[14.29, 18.73]
16.78
[14.18, 19.74]
16.26
[14.51, 18.18]
16.29
[14.12, 18.72]
20.2021.24
[19.41, 23.20]
21.75
[19.36, 24.35]
24.42
[22.16, 26.84]
24.45
[21.73, 27.41]
15.0020.80
[18.17, 23.70]
21.17
[18.63, 23.95]
24.40
[21.45, 27.60]
24.42
[21.40, 27.72]
9.105.03
[4.00, 6.30]
5.09
[3.98, 6.50]
4.98
[4.01, 6.18]
4.99
[3.94, 6.29]
38.5033.44
[30.58, 36.42]
34.02
[31.43, 36.70]
36.32
[33.52, 39.22]
36.36
[33.67, 39.14]
39.1038.76
[34.77, 42.90]
39.05
[35.38, 42.84]
39.52
[35.87, 43.29]
39.54
[36.14, 43.03]
24.0026.13
[23.62, 28.81]
26.22
[23.70, 28.90]
27.55
[25.26, 29.96]
27.55
[25.26, 29.97]
17.5023.09
[20.67, 25.71]
22.73
[20.18, 25.50]
18.00
[14.64, 21.94]
17.99
[14.54, 22.06]
13.7012.98
[11.31, 14.85]
12.57
[10.53, 14.94]
12.39
[10.83, 14.13]
12.36
[10.56, 14.42]
9.1010.98
[9.81, 12.28]
10.83
[9.65, 12.14]
11.27
[10.14, 12.51]
11.26
[10.18, 12.43]
9.106.13
[5.01, 7.48]
6.23
[4.98, 7.76]
6.85
[5.60, 8.35]
6.85
[5.50, 8.50]
9.1012.33
[11.09, 13.69]
12.26
[11.00, 13.65]
12.40
[11.22, 13.69]
12.40
[11.23, 13.66]
25.9021.34
[19.95, 22.81]
21.09
[19.47, 22.81]
23.04
[21.65, 24.49]
23.02
[21.43, 24.68]
29.7024.77
[22.99, 26.65]
24.29
[21.88, 26.87]
25.41
[23.79, 27.09]
25.37
[23.10, 27.77]
31.2031.91
[29.04, 34.92]
32.63
[30.01, 35.35]
28.75
[25.22, 32.55]
28.80
[25.55, 32.29]
32.3035.06
[31.78, 38.49]
35.48
[32.57, 38.51]
34.90
[31.78, 38.16]
34.93
[32.13, 37.84]
32.4036.16
[32.90, 39.55]
36.41
[33.38, 39.55]
37.63
[34.58, 40.77]
37.64
[34.77, 40.61]
25.8023.28
[20.99, 25.73]
23.13
[20.83, 25.60]
26.19
[23.73, 28.81]
26.17
[23.69, 28.82]
13.8019.10
[17.63, 20.65]
18.79
[17.16, 20.54]
19.31
[18.03, 20.65]
19.28
[17.82, 20.84]
20.3018.14
[16.56, 19.84]
18.22
[16.59, 19.98]
17.18
[15.65, 18.82]
17.19
[15.63, 18.87]
15.5019.87
[18.64, 21.16]
19.92
[18.68, 21.22]
18.58
[17.07, 20.20]
18.59
[17.09, 20.19]
45.1031.86
[29.28, 34.56]
31.43
[28.19, 34.87]
33.77
[31.32, 36.32]
33.74
[30.59, 37.03]
8.008.44
[6.93, 10.24]
8.29
[6.74, 10.15]
8.52
[7.09, 10.20]
8.51
[7.10, 10.17]
30.6033.38
[30.52, 36.37]
33.70
[31.11, 36.40]
34.59
[31.94, 37.34]
34.61
[32.17, 37.14]
49.6032.94
[29.86, 36.17]
32.88
[29.72, 36.21]
35.97
[33.02, 39.02]
35.95
[32.84, 39.19]
15.7021.08
[19.55, 22.70]
21.33
[19.85, 22.90]
19.82
[18.07, 21.69]
19.84
[18.12, 21.67]
43.7032.88
[30.16, 35.73]
33.59
[30.95, 36.34]
37.22
[34.09, 40.46]
37.27
[34.04, 40.61]
10.4013.01
[11.03, 15.29]
13.17
[11.00, 15.70]
12.37
[10.73, 14.23]
12.39
[10.58, 14.45]
11.508.52
[7.16, 10.12]
8.25
[6.99, 9.71]
10.67
[8.73, 12.96]
10.63
[8.90, 12.66]
21.5028.64
[26.49, 30.89]
28.70
[26.62, 30.89]
30.63
[28.60, 32.74]
30.63
[28.59, 32.75]
17.3017.51
[16.14, 18.98]
16.94
[14.69, 19.46]
16.54
[15.06, 18.14]
16.50
[14.40, 18.84]
11.3036.36
[31.47, 41.54]
35.31
[28.63, 42.61]
31.60
[26.31, 37.41]
31.54
[25.08, 38.80]
14.5012.67
[11.44, 14.02]
12.84
[11.38, 14.47]
14.49
[12.95, 16.18]
14.50
[12.79, 16.40]
27.2030.08
[27.39, 32.93]
30.94
[28.28, 33.74]
30.31
[27.84, 32.90]
30.37
[27.85, 33.02]
8.908.11
[6.77, 9.70]
8.03
[6.75, 9.53]
9.14
[7.69, 10.82]
9.13
[7.79, 10.67]
33.3029.66
[27.36, 32.07]
30.06
[27.83, 32.40]
27.96
[25.33, 30.75]
27.99
[25.51, 30.62]
14.8018.54
[17.31, 19.82]
18.12
[16.46, 19.91]
16.93
[15.37, 18.63]
16.91
[15.05, 18.95]
18.5015.11
[13.91, 16.39]
14.89
[13.64, 16.23]
11.43
[9.30, 13.97]
11.43
[9.27, 14.01]
49.9043.98
[38.42, 49.70]
43.22
[36.33, 50.40]
43.64
[38.56, 48.85]
43.58
[37.29, 50.09]
12.8020.11
[18.02, 22.37]
19.97
[17.91, 22.21]
17.70
[15.45, 20.20]
17.70
[15.43, 20.23]
13.0017.32
[15.21, 19.67]
16.98
[14.88, 19.31]
19.43
[17.27, 21.79]
19.40
[17.25, 21.74]
38.7031.82
[29.02, 34.76]
32.85
[29.90, 35.94]
37.27
[33.71, 40.98]
37.34
[33.37, 41.49]
31.4032.88
[29.87, 36.04]
32.75
[29.54, 36.14]
32.64
[29.77, 35.63]
32.63
[29.59, 35.81]
25.0016.29
[13.18, 19.96]
16.19
[13.15, 19.77]
18.84
[15.65, 22.50]
18.83
[15.73, 22.37]
31.2015.60
[11.93, 20.14]
15.72
[11.94, 20.42]
21.14
[16.11, 27.23]
21.13
[16.11, 27.22]
24.7031.16
[28.32, 34.14]
31.73
[29.21, 34.36]
32.95
[30.38, 35.62]
32.99
[30.58, 35.49]
16.9027.63
[25.42, 29.96]
27.88
[25.69, 30.19]
27.70
[25.62, 29.88]
27.72
[25.70, 29.84]
8.9012.11
[10.25, 14.24]
12.43
[10.39, 14.81]
12.30
[10.60, 14.24]
12.32
[10.39, 14.56]
10.0012.96
[9.50, 17.44]
13.76
[9.19, 20.11]
13.49
[10.49, 17.19]
13.55
[9.67, 18.66]
6.1012.99
[11.26, 14.93]
12.70
[11.06, 14.53]
10.91
[9.21, 12.88]
10.89
[9.17, 12.90]
40.6032.47
[29.77, 35.30]
33.21
[30.41, 36.14]
31.89
[29.16, 34.74]
31.94
[29.27, 34.74]
22.6030.68
[27.94, 33.55]
29.14
[23.73, 35.20]
31.14
[28.60, 33.80]
31.02
[25.74, 36.86]
8.4014.43
[13.11, 15.86]
14.02
[12.51, 15.68]
9.73
[7.37, 12.74]
9.71
[7.28, 12.85]
10.406.16
[5.04, 7.52]
6.31
[4.96, 8.00]
8.51
[6.52, 11.05]
8.52
[6.39, 11.28]
7.6018.33
[16.22, 20.65]
18.66
[16.55, 20.97]
17.37
[15.37, 19.56]
17.39
[15.36, 19.63]
9.907.95
[6.47, 9.75]
7.98
[6.45, 9.83]
7.74
[6.48, 9.23]
7.75
[6.44, 9.29]
25.1031.45
[28.81, 34.22]
31.60
[29.12, 34.19]
31.32
[28.78, 33.97]
31.33
[28.94, 33.83]
12.0014.64
[11.30, 18.76]
14.09
[10.96, 17.95]
12.91
[10.25, 16.13]
12.88
[10.16, 16.18]
19.1019.61
[18.21, 21.09]
20.02
[18.16, 22.02]
14.33
[11.38, 17.90]
14.37
[11.38, 17.98]
11.406.25
[5.10, 7.64]
6.31
[5.09, 7.79]
5.75
[4.69, 7.02]
5.75
[4.64, 7.11]
21.4022.70
[21.13, 24.36]
22.56
[20.88, 24.32]
23.06
[21.64, 24.54]
23.05
[21.52, 24.64]
10.408.39
[7.22, 9.72]
8.16
[7.00, 9.49]
7.54
[6.43, 8.83]
7.52
[6.42, 8.80]
17.9019.76
[17.65, 22.06]
19.64
[17.56, 21.90]
17.01
[14.66, 19.64]
17.00
[14.64, 19.66]
11.405.91
[4.82, 7.22]
5.80
[4.75, 7.07]
5.49
[4.49, 6.69]
5.48
[4.53, 6.63]
10.4012.68
[11.33, 14.16]
12.35
[10.75, 14.16]
14.42
[12.80, 16.20]
14.39
[12.70, 16.26]
11.406.20
[5.06, 7.57]
6.43
[4.99, 8.25]
6.39
[5.26, 7.73]
6.40
[5.01, 8.16]
22.6026.94
[24.21, 29.85]
26.92
[24.19, 29.84]
25.52
[22.85, 28.39]
25.52
[22.85, 28.39]
15.4015.78
[14.64, 16.98]
15.54
[14.29, 16.89]
18.04
[16.48, 19.71]
18.02
[16.48, 19.66]
10.406.55
[5.29, 8.08]
6.40
[5.14, 7.94]
5.68
[4.54, 7.09]
5.68
[4.54, 7.07]
10.4014.14
[12.13, 16.43]
13.98
[11.85, 16.43]
15.17
[13.25, 17.32]
15.16
[13.18, 17.36]
12.5013.65
[12.43, 14.98]
13.63
[12.40, 14.97]
14.50
[13.32, 15.77]
14.50
[13.35, 15.73]
43.5036.91
[33.39, 40.58]
36.81
[33.13, 40.66]
40.55
[37.08, 44.12]
40.54
[36.82, 44.37]
49.4039.85
[35.70, 44.16]
40.09
[36.22, 44.10]
40.62
[36.81, 44.55]
40.64
[37.05, 44.33]
14.6011.13
[9.96, 12.43]
10.97
[9.77, 12.29]
11.85
[10.65, 13.17]
11.84
[10.70, 13.08]
44.1031.40
[28.90, 34.01]
31.47
[29.03, 34.01]
32.63
[30.30, 35.04]
32.63
[30.32, 35.02]
11.9011.56
[10.24, 13.02]
11.19
[9.84, 12.71]
10.53
[9.27, 11.93]
10.50
[9.18, 11.99]
24.2028.10
[24.79, 31.66]
27.91
[24.35, 31.78]
29.67
[26.78, 32.74]
29.66
[26.50, 33.02]
17.3019.16
[17.29, 21.19]
19.13
[17.26, 21.14]
19.46
[17.86, 21.16]
19.45
[17.86, 21.16]
20.7015.83
[14.61, 17.13]
16.18
[14.46, 18.06]
17.53
[16.16, 19.00]
17.56
[15.73, 19.55]
32.3030.42
[27.99, 32.97]
30.74
[28.56, 33.02]
28.07
[25.12, 31.23]
28.10
[25.38, 30.99]
27.4030.72
[28.22, 33.35]
29.74
[25.30, 34.59]
31.65
[29.35, 34.04]
31.57
[27.40, 36.07]
12.6019.54
[17.76, 21.45]
19.43
[17.66, 21.33]
21.19
[19.49, 23.00]
21.18
[19.49, 22.97]
43.5042.45
[37.47, 47.59]
41.55
[34.91, 48.50]
34.88
[28.24, 42.15]
34.83
[27.39, 43.09]
18.0029.84
[27.57, 32.20]
29.96
[27.80, 32.22]
25.11
[21.41, 29.22]
25.13
[21.57, 29.07]
9.9029.44
[27.12, 31.86]
29.53
[27.27, 31.90]
29.14
[26.87, 31.53]
29.15
[26.94, 31.47]
7.609.03
[7.73, 10.52]
9.00
[7.68, 10.52]
8.98
[7.74, 10.39]
8.98
[7.75, 10.38]
31.4034.58
[31.57, 37.71]
33.82
[29.54, 38.39]
34.62
[31.71, 37.65]
34.56
[30.43, 38.94]
14.4010.36
[8.76, 12.21]
10.04
[8.55, 11.75]
10.84
[9.40, 12.48]
10.82
[9.48, 12.32]
64.3045.26
[38.90, 51.78]
44.69
[37.40, 52.23]
48.25
[42.72, 53.84]
48.21
[41.69, 54.78]
10.408.74
[7.27, 10.46]
8.66
[7.17, 10.41]
10.35
[8.55, 12.48]
10.34
[8.60, 12.39]
20.1016.76
[15.64, 17.94]
16.52
[15.24, 17.89]
19.24
[17.63, 20.96]
19.21
[17.59, 20.95]
25.3025.20
[23.39, 27.11]
25.79
[23.55, 28.15]
21.88
[19.14, 24.89]
21.93
[19.13, 25.00]
27.1029.55
[27.32, 31.88]
30.49
[27.78, 33.35]
27.41
[24.67, 30.33]
27.48
[24.59, 30.58]
30.1031.84
[29.19, 34.62]
32.34
[29.96, 34.81]
29.58
[26.47, 32.90]
29.62
[26.79, 32.62]
37.3034.52
[31.48, 37.70]
34.63
[31.69, 37.68]
37.63
[34.64, 40.73]
37.63
[34.63, 40.73]
10.409.01
[7.84, 10.34]
9.10
[7.82, 10.57]
10.02
[8.70, 11.51]
10.02
[8.63, 11.62]
13.4022.23
[19.82, 24.84]
22.06
[19.66, 24.66]
18.04
[15.01, 21.52]
18.03
[14.98, 21.55]
6.3010.72
[9.36, 12.25]
11.34
[8.83, 14.44]
10.00
[8.78, 11.36]
10.04
[7.94, 12.62]
13.9017.41
[15.78, 19.18]
17.54
[15.80, 19.44]
16.99
[15.55, 18.53]
17.00
[15.47, 18.65]
18.9028.88
[26.72, 31.14]
28.04
[24.27, 32.15]
25.67
[22.61, 28.98]
25.62
[21.59, 30.11]
8.009.58
[8.16, 11.21]
9.45
[8.00, 11.13]
8.44
[7.06, 10.05]
8.43
[7.06, 10.05]
8.008.50
[6.42, 11.18]
9.02
[6.53, 12.35]
8.38
[6.51, 10.73]
8.42
[6.16, 11.41]
25.7026.35
[24.23, 28.59]
26.15
[23.88, 28.56]
28.34
[26.30, 30.49]
28.32
[26.09, 30.67]
33.0037.11
[33.36, 41.01]
37.63
[34.34, 41.04]
39.00
[35.61, 42.51]
39.04
[35.96, 42.21]
27.9018.35
[16.13, 20.81]
18.29
[16.10, 20.71]
14.06
[11.32, 17.33]
14.06
[11.32, 17.34]
23.9017.93
[16.20, 19.79]
18.09
[16.22, 20.11]
22.67
[19.56, 26.11]
22.67
[19.53, 26.16]
13.309.67
[7.55, 12.30]
10.22
[7.67, 13.48]
10.02
[8.05, 12.41]
10.06
[7.64, 13.14]
8.9011.36
[10.04, 12.83]
11.83
[9.88, 14.10]
10.21
[8.85, 11.75]
10.24
[8.44, 12.39]
Microsoft AI Economy Institute, June 2026; WDI 2024 controls; PWT 11.0 and WDI/ILO 2023 additions. All 121 economies stay in every primary fit. Both axes: percent of ages 15-64. Dashed diagonal: fitted equals published. The selected-country outlined square pins the baseline; no source uncertainty is implied by the gap. Open the Microsoft country data ↗

Look beyond the fitted average

The shape of the divide.

The same countries, now viewed as a distribution. The density smooths the picture; the dots keep the observations visible.

Exhibit 03 / Country distributions

Every economy behind the smooth curve

Frozen evidence / exact values below

Published median 17.50%

Fitted median 19.76%

Each economy counts once.
Dots are observations; curves are smoothed.

Published and fitted adoption distributions: 121 equally weighted economiesDensity silhouettes share one bandwidth and vertical scale. Dots are exact economy observations; vertical jitter only prevents overlap. Short bars mark the middle half and median. Inspecting Germany. Arrow keys inspect economies; Enter selects. An exact table follows.020406080100Published estimatesn = 121 · median 17.50%DEU 32.3%Selected model fitted sharesn = 121 · median 19.76%DEU 35.1%AI User Share / % of people aged 15-64
Published and fitted adoption distributions: 121 equally weighted economiesDensity silhouettes share one bandwidth and vertical scale. Dots are exact economy observations; vertical jitter only prevents overlap. Short bars mark the middle half and median. Inspecting Germany. Arrow keys inspect economies; Enter selects. An exact table follows.020406080100Published estimatesn = 121 · median 17.50%DEU 32.3%Selected model fitted sharesn = 121 · median 19.76%DEU 35.1%AI User Share / % of people aged 15-64

Germany: published 32.30%; Income + internet fitted 35.06%; residual -2.76 pp. Hover, use arrows, or tap a country; Enter selects.

Epanechnikov kernel density; fixed bandwidth 5.0000 pp, reflected at 0% and 100%. Height is density per percentage point, on the same scale in every specification. The thick short segment is the interquartile range; its central tick is the raw median. Fine peaks change with the bandwidth and do not identify stable country groups. The curves add no observations or source uncertainty.

Exact distribution values: all 121 published and fitted pairs
Microsoft June 2026 estimates and the selected specification, percent of ages 15-64. Each row has equal weight in the displayed distribution.
EconomyPublished / %Income + connectivity / %
11.400014.8065
19.200023.0119
73.300035.8871
23.400024.3582
7.700021.4969
40.700034.6787
35.400035.3605
8.00004.8851
40.300035.0686
10.40009.8116
10.40007.8459
8.000014.4545
30.700028.0948
13.300016.3900
20.200021.2438
15.000020.8022
9.10005.0273
38.500033.4395
39.100038.7571
24.000026.1343
17.500023.0948
13.700012.9764
9.100010.9837
9.10006.1284
9.100012.3279
25.900021.3418
29.700024.7721
31.200031.9071
32.300035.0614
32.400036.1601
25.800023.2776
13.800019.0956
20.300018.1439
15.500019.8686
45.100031.8648
8.00008.4379
30.600033.3816
49.600032.9386
15.700021.0824
43.700032.8843
10.400013.0134
11.50008.5215
21.500028.6422
17.300017.5134
11.300036.3553
14.500012.6705
27.200030.0831
8.90008.1119
33.300029.6615
14.800018.5352
18.500015.1068
49.900043.9837
12.800020.1084
13.000017.3250
38.700031.8217
31.400032.8807
25.000016.2851
31.200015.5979
24.700031.1580
16.900027.6305
8.900012.1061
10.000012.9634
6.100012.9890
40.600032.4697
22.600030.6753
8.400014.4316
10.40006.1633
7.600018.3292
9.90007.9527
25.100031.4505
12.000014.6409
19.100019.6081
11.40006.2530
21.400022.7032
10.40008.3871
17.900019.7613
11.40005.9086
10.400012.6758
11.40006.1999
22.600026.9409
15.400015.7768
10.40006.5454
10.400014.1434
12.500013.6535
43.500036.9115
49.400039.8543
14.600011.1343
44.100031.3975
11.900011.5557
24.200028.0962
17.300019.1602
20.700015.8286
32.300030.4204
27.400030.7219
12.600019.5407
43.500042.4516
18.000029.8374
9.900029.4351
7.60009.0277
31.400034.5758
14.400010.3563
64.300045.2601
10.40008.7357
20.100016.7593
25.300025.2015
27.100029.5509
30.100031.8421
37.300034.5236
10.40009.0149
13.400022.2294
6.300010.7217
13.900017.4145
18.900028.8815
8.00009.5775
8.00008.4980
25.700026.3538
33.000037.1060
27.900018.3543
23.900017.9254
13.30009.6673
8.900011.3590
Microsoft AI Economy Institute, June 2026; own frozen fractional-response models using WDI and PWT 11.0. The same 121 economies supply every distribution. Country weights are equal, not proportional to population. Both rows use 0-100% support and common density scaling. Smoothed curves do not describe individual people or model uncertainty. Open the Microsoft country data ↗

Exhibit 04 / Conditional model

Four models. The variation each leaves unexplained.

Frozen evidence / exact values below

Left of zero: the model overpredicts.
Right of zero: it underpredicts.

Selected model / in-sample RMSE

7.22 pp

Residual density for the same 121 economies in all four specificationsEach line is a kernel density of published minus fitted adoption. All rows share a bandwidth and both axes. Rug marks retain the exact observations. Germany's Income + internet residual is -2.76 percentage points. These are in-sample residuals, not held-out prediction errors.-30-20-100+10+20+30+40+50Income + connectivity / selectedn = 121 · median -0.65 ppDEU -2.76 ppAdd human capitaln = 121 · median -1.02 ppDEU -3.18 ppAdd services employmentn = 121 · median -0.38 ppDEU -2.60 ppAdd bothn = 121 · median -0.38 ppDEU -2.63 ppPublished minus fitted adoption / percentage points
Residual density for the same 121 economies in all four specificationsEach line is a kernel density of published minus fitted adoption. All rows share a bandwidth and both axes. Rug marks retain the exact observations. Germany's Income + internet residual is -2.76 percentage points. These are in-sample residuals, not held-out prediction errors.-200+20+40Income + connectivity / selectedDEU -2.76 ppAdd human capitalDEU -3.18 ppAdd services employmentDEU -2.60 ppAdd bothDEU -2.63 ppPublished minus fitted adoption / percentage points

Four descriptive residual distributions, 121 equally weighted economies each. Epanechnikov kernel; common bandwidth 4.1443 pp and common density scale. Area represents the same total weight in each row. Fine peaks depend on smoothing. These are neither four historical periods nor four independent samples. No source-estimate error bars are available.

Exact residuals: the same 121 economies in all four models
Residual = published minus fitted share, in percentage points. These are in-sample descriptive errors, not held-out errors or source uncertainty.
EconomyPublished / %Income + connectivity / residual ppAdd human capital / residual ppAdd services employment / residual ppAdd both / residual pp
11.4000-3.4065-2.7034-2.6314-2.5822
19.2000-3.8119-3.83190.73820.7275
73.300037.412937.735440.161440.1785
23.4000-0.9582-1.0678-3.0542-3.0581
7.7000-13.7969-14.0896-11.3527-11.3778
40.70006.02135.76444.09904.0838
35.40000.03950.05310.87770.8769
8.00003.11493.07223.71683.7127
40.30005.23145.68243.12493.1642
10.40000.58840.56700.01140.0109
10.40002.55412.76872.61972.6354
8.0000-6.4545-6.2254-4.5008-4.4898
30.70002.60522.45693.10353.0915
13.3000-3.0900-3.4769-2.9634-2.9921
20.2000-1.0438-1.5531-4.2208-4.2550
15.0000-5.8022-6.1668-9.3957-9.4175
9.10004.07274.00674.11594.1108
38.50005.06054.48352.18012.1422
39.10000.34290.0527-0.4172-0.4371
24.0000-2.1343-2.2210-3.5482-3.5518
17.5000-5.5948-5.2323-0.5042-0.4920
13.70000.72361.12801.31371.3416
9.1000-1.8837-1.7331-2.1709-2.1589
9.10002.97162.87142.25422.2476
9.1000-3.2279-3.1636-3.3003-3.2954
25.90004.55824.80882.86072.8842
29.70004.92795.41134.29454.3327
31.2000-0.7071-1.42652.45352.3965
32.3000-2.7614-3.1823-2.5990-2.6305
32.4000-3.7601-4.0092-5.2265-5.2420
25.80002.52242.6696-0.3919-0.3734
13.8000-5.2956-4.9911-5.5060-5.4827
20.30002.15612.07813.12043.1126
15.5000-4.3686-4.4231-3.0830-3.0897
45.100013.235213.668511.326711.3643
8.0000-0.4379-0.2878-0.5177-0.5063
30.6000-2.7816-3.1027-3.9916-4.0131
49.600016.661416.716213.634213.6453
15.7000-5.3824-5.6330-4.1150-4.1356
43.700010.815710.10806.47936.4338
10.4000-2.6134-2.7719-1.9743-1.9871
11.50002.97853.25200.83470.8650
21.5000-7.1422-7.2045-9.1314-9.1318
17.3000-0.21340.35800.76060.7995
11.3000-25.0553-24.0093-20.2982-20.2352
14.50001.82951.65560.01050.0002
27.2000-2.8831-3.7443-3.1094-3.1728
8.90000.78810.8694-0.2351-0.2261
33.30003.63853.23605.33795.3054
14.8000-3.7352-3.3225-2.1347-2.1093
18.50003.39323.61107.06817.0737
49.90005.91636.67536.26456.3203
12.8000-7.3084-7.1746-4.9037-4.8998
13.0000-4.3250-3.9797-6.4310-6.3980
38.70006.87835.84861.42831.3590
31.4000-1.4807-1.3503-1.2364-1.2272
25.00008.71498.81006.16116.1749
31.200015.602115.481610.064110.0663
24.7000-6.4580-7.0325-8.2472-8.2870
16.9000-10.7305-10.9822-10.8010-10.8196
8.9000-3.2061-3.5337-3.4007-3.4248
10.0000-2.9634-3.7603-3.4912-3.5501
6.1000-6.8890-6.5951-4.8092-4.7946
40.60008.13037.38938.71328.6576
22.6000-8.0753-6.5356-8.5424-8.4243
8.4000-6.0316-5.6185-1.3266-1.3133
10.40004.23674.08731.88691.8780
7.6000-10.7292-11.0585-9.7660-9.7915
9.90001.94731.91962.15502.1524
25.1000-6.3505-6.5041-6.2182-6.2298
12.0000-2.6409-2.0946-0.9083-0.8750
19.1000-0.5081-0.91824.76694.7330
11.40005.14705.09215.65155.6466
21.4000-1.3032-1.1554-1.6574-1.6455
10.40002.01292.24102.86152.8752
17.9000-1.8613-1.73990.89470.8969
11.40005.49145.59505.91145.9177
10.4000-2.2758-1.9534-4.0199-3.9889
11.40005.20014.97235.01364.9968
22.6000-4.3409-4.3248-2.9198-2.9219
15.4000-0.3768-0.1417-2.6402-2.6155
10.40003.85463.99964.71684.7245
10.4000-3.7434-3.5802-4.7714-4.7562
12.5000-1.1535-1.1349-2.0030-1.9998
43.50006.58856.68582.94752.9632
49.40009.54579.30548.77778.7615
14.60003.46573.63442.74942.7643
44.100012.702512.632011.474411.4718
11.90000.34430.70541.37301.3958
24.2000-3.8962-3.7116-5.4736-5.4559
17.3000-1.8602-1.8279-2.1577-2.1548
20.70004.87144.51823.16673.1423
32.30001.87961.55534.22714.1991
27.4000-3.3219-2.3359-4.2508-4.1735
12.6000-6.9407-6.8277-8.5933-8.5807
43.50001.04841.95218.62448.6710
18.0000-11.8374-11.9605-7.1148-7.1330
9.9000-19.5351-19.6317-19.2443-19.2521
7.6000-1.4277-1.3950-1.3791-1.3769
31.4000-3.1758-2.4233-3.2189-3.1625
14.40004.04374.36003.55683.5826
64.300019.039919.607216.045516.0949
10.40001.66431.74270.04880.0594
20.10003.34073.57550.86110.8864
25.30000.0985-0.48603.41823.3719
27.1000-2.4509-3.3928-0.3099-0.3810
30.1000-1.7421-2.23980.51680.4765
37.30002.77642.6740-0.3340-0.3349
10.40001.38511.29900.38050.3757
13.4000-8.8294-8.6579-4.6359-4.6337
6.3000-4.4217-5.0379-3.6968-3.7406
13.9000-3.5145-3.6421-3.0901-3.1004
18.9000-9.9815-9.1420-6.7680-6.7164
8.0000-1.5775-1.4536-0.4370-0.4312
8.0000-0.4980-1.0248-0.3807-0.4188
25.7000-0.6538-0.4546-2.6448-2.6248
33.0000-4.1060-4.6330-6.0026-6.0381
27.90009.54579.607313.842113.8372
23.90005.97465.81431.23201.2291
13.30003.63273.08183.28153.2409
8.9000-2.4590-2.9277-1.3104-1.3442
Own calculations from the frozen Microsoft, WDI and PWT inputs. Residuals are published minus fitted adoption, in percentage points. All four models retain exactly the same 121 countries. This is an in-sample diagnostic; the held-out model errors above answer a different question. Shapes are not four historical periods. Open the Microsoft country data ↗

Microsoft's AI Economy Institute provides an unusually broad starting point: published AI User Share estimates for 147 economies. The June 2026 measure estimates use of tracked generative-AI products among people aged 15-64. It is not a Copilot-only measure, a count of enterprise deployments or a productivity statistic. The methodology originates with researchers at the Microsoft AI for Good Lab; this analysis uses the public estimates rather than the underlying telemetry.

The earlier article's income, internet-use and population requirements retain 136 economies. Adding PWT 11.0 human capital for 2023 leaves 122. Requiring services employment in that same year leaves 121: Ukraine has a recent observation, but it is from 2021. It belongs in a dated sensitivity check, not an unlabeled common-year comparison.

All four primary specifications are therefore fitted to the same 121 economies. The baseline contains income and connectivity; the other states add the schooling-and-returns human-capital index, services employment, or both. The baseline remains visible for the selected country. Moving a mark changes its model estimate, not its history.

The distribution views make a different limitation visible. A fitted average can describe the center while missing the spread across countries. The rainclouds retain every published and fitted value alongside a smoothed density; the residual ridgelines compare what each specification leaves unexplained. Each economy counts once. These are distributions of country estimates, not distributions of individual AI use, and the curves are not uncertainty intervals.

This is a fractional-response model, which respects the outcome's zero-to-one scale. Its contrasts ask how fitted adoption differs between the lower and upper quartiles of a predictor, averaging over the same reference economies. They do not describe a policy intervention, and they do not make the published adoption estimates more certain.

A result and its failure boundary

Job structure helps describe the divide. Weighting changes the answer.

The services contrast is 7.46 percentage points in the equal-economy fit and 1.07 points in the population-weighted fit.

Exhibit 05 / Conditional model

Which association survives which assumption?

Frozen evidence / exact values below

Which additional predictor?

Services employment: 43.23 to 71.16% of employment. Every contrast averages over the same 121 reference economies.

Approximate 95% conditional model-contrast intervals. Zero means no additional fitted contrast, not proof of no relationship. Both predictor views use the same -8 to +14 pp scale.

Income + connectivity

Primary / 121 economies

Not included

Add human capital

Primary / 121 economies

Not included

Add services employment

Primary / 121 economies

+7.47 pp
[3.03, 11.92]

Add both

Primary / 121 economies

+7.46 pp
[3.08, 11.83]

Population weighting

Sensitivity / 121 economies

+1.07 pp
[-6.02, 8.17]

Exclude all shared paths

Sensitivity / 97 economies

+6.82 pp
[2.38, 11.26]

Exclude UAE + Singapore

Sensitivity / 119 economies

+7.78 pp
[3.78, 11.77]

OLS, same countries

Sensitivity / 121 economies

+7.62 pp
[3.14, 12.11]

Allow dated 2021-2023 services

Sensitivity / 122 economies

+7.46 pp
[3.04, 11.87]

Focus or hover a specification for its precise contrast and estimation sample.

Population weighting changes the fitted question. The services point estimate remains positive, but its interval includes negative and positive values. This is not a causal policy effect; uncertainty in source adoption estimates is unavailable.

Exact model contrasts for both predictors
Interquartile standardized contrasts and 95% conditional bounds, percentage points. Blank model terms are explicitly not included.
SpecificationPredictorEstimate / ppLowerUpperFit n
Income + connectivityHuman capitalNot includedNot includedNot included121
Income + connectivityServicesNot includedNot includedNot included121
Add human capitalHuman capital1.2874-2.50265.0774121
Add human capitalServicesNot includedNot includedNot included121
Add services employmentHuman capitalNot includedNot includedNot included121
Add services employmentServices7.47313.029211.9169121
Add bothHuman capital0.0956-3.37113.5623121
Add bothServices7.45643.078411.8344121
Population weightingHuman capital3.0846-2.50728.6764121
Population weightingServices1.0724-6.02148.1661121
Exclude all shared pathsHuman capital-1.2266-4.96982.516697
Exclude all shared pathsServices6.82182.383511.260297
Exclude UAE + SingaporeHuman capital1.1167-2.02184.2552119
Exclude UAE + SingaporeServices7.77873.784211.7732119
OLS, same countriesHuman capital0.1852-3.45493.8253121
OLS, same countriesServices7.62203.138812.1052121
Allow dated 2021-2023 servicesHuman capital-0.2653-3.77603.2454122
Allow dated 2021-2023 servicesServices7.45613.040311.8719122
Own calculations from frozen Microsoft, PWT and WDI inputs. Interquartile predictor contrasts, percentage points, on the same 121-economy reference distribution. Bars are approximate 95% path-cluster conditional model intervals, not causal effects or adoption-estimate error bars. Open the Microsoft country data ↗

In the model containing both additions, the human-capital interquartile contrast is 0.10 percentage points, with an approximate 95% conditional interval from -3.37 to 3.56. The extra association is imprecisely estimated. It would be a mistake to translate that into 'education does not matter': a national schooling index, an individual's formal education and practical AI skill are different objects.

Services employment has a larger conditional association. Moving from 43.23% to 71.16% of employment in services corresponds to 7.46 percentage points more fitted adoption, with a conditional interval from 3.08 to 11.83. The broad sector share is an imperfect proxy for opportunities to use AI; it includes many jobs whose tasks differ substantially.

The strongest qualification is not hidden in a footnote. When the fit gives more weight to countries with larger working-age populations, the same services contrast falls to 1.07 points and its interval spans -6.02 to 8.17. These estimates answer differently weighted descriptive questions. The equal-economy association is not a reliable summary of every person's circumstances.

Removing originally shared trajectories, excluding the United Arab Emirates and Singapore, or using a linear model leaves a positive services association in these checks. Held-out prediction error also improves modestly: 7.46 points for the baseline and 7.09 for the services-only addition. Adding both produces 7.15. More variables do not guarantee a better description outside the fitted group, and these comparisons are not formal tests of predictive superiority.

Back to people / opportunities to use AI

The work people do belongs in the explanation.

Germany's reported work-related use is 24.79% in non-manual occupations, including the armed forces, and 4.79% in manual occupations.

Exhibit 06 / Published estimates

Compare occupations without changing the denominator

Frozen evidence / exact values below

Use in the previous three months / 2025

Purpose categories overlap. Work and private use are not parts that sum to the total.

32 complete geographies. 32 have higher non-manual use. Any purpose; percentages within each group.

Individuals in the stated occupational group, standard survey ages 16-74. No sampling intervals are reconstructed from these aggregate cells.

Manual (ISCO 6-9)Non-manual, including armed forces (ISCO 0-5)

Selected specimen

Germany

Any purpose / 2025

Manual (ISCO 6-9)
18.10%
Non-manual, including armed forces (ISCO 0-5)
41.39%
Non-manual minus manual
23.29 pp
0%25%50%75%100%18.10%41.39%
Ordered by group gap / ppEvery row: 0 to 100%Gap

Hover or focus a row for exact values and flags. Tap or press Enter to carry that economy into the other exhibits.

Exact survey values: 32 complete occupation profiles
Eurostat 2025. Percent within each group. Individuals in the stated occupational group, standard survey ages 16-74. All original flags are shown.
GeographyManual (ISCO 6-9) / %Non-manual, including armed forces (ISCO 0-5) / %Gap / pp
19.9460.8340.89
16.8356.2239.39
24.8263.1738.35
23.1460.0436.90
23.4558.5735.12
20.2255.0134.79
19.7052.3332.63
18.2650.6032.34
22.2754.3432.07
19.5851.3931.81
28.3359.7931.46
21.8453.1331.29
14.6045.8931.29
25.5656.4430.88
11.1841.8330.65
37.1165.4828.37
17.6445.9628.32
27.1554.9727.82
30.0357.8127.78
22.9250.2027.28
24.1650.7826.62
10.4135.8525.44
55.8981.0925.20
11.3335.8524.52
15.9239.9123.99
18.1041.3923.29
8.5631.7423.18
5.3326.8321.50
10.4627.0216.56
34.8347.3012.47
16.8926.419.52
31.2531.680.43
Eurostat isoc_ai_iaiu, 2025. Percentage within each occupational group, ages 16-74. Manual: ISCO 6-9. Non-manual: ISCO 0-5, including armed forces. Work and private purposes overlap. Negative group differences and source flags remain visible. Open the Eurostat extract ↗

Eurostat offers a second within-country comparison that is closer to the opportunity mechanism. In Germany, 41.39% of the non-manual occupational group, including the armed forces, report any use, compared with 18.10% of the manual group. Work-related use is 24.79% versus 4.79%. A task that routinely involves text, code or information can create reasons to try generative AI; the available cells do not isolate that causal channel.

The denominator has changed. These occupational profiles use the survey's standard ages 16-74 within each stated occupational group, not the education comparison's ages 25-64 and not Microsoft's ages-15-64 population estimate. Keep the country, but do not pretend that all three sources observe the same people.

Private use also differs. That makes a simple workplace-only account incomplete, while giving no license to add professional and private percentages: a person can report both. The display keeps the purpose-specific values, source flags and group definitions available rather than compressing them into a single score.

Selection / who leaves the model

The missing countries are part of the result.

The primary model retains 43 of 44 high-income economies, but only 15 of 23 low-income economies.

Exhibit 07 / Derived coverage

Five source requirements, unequal country coverage

Frozen evidence / exact values below

147 economies. Five overlapping source sets. Thirteen observed combinations. The primary model includes 121: every combination containing controls, human capital and common-2023 services.

A filled dot means the source is present; an open dot means it is absent. Each top bar counts one exact combination once. Separate set-size bars overlap and must not be added. Zero-count combinations are omitted; the observed all-zero combination is retained.

Primary-model combinationsOutside the primary modelGermany's combination
Exact combination / economiesSourceSet size / 1470204060Controls136HC 23127Jobs 23143R&D 2372R&D latest8862441586322111110147
Count
0-70
ControlsHC 23Jobs 23R&D 23R&D latest
Original controls: GDP/internet 2024, population 2025
136 / 147
Human capital, 2023
127 / 147
Services employment, 2023
143 / 147
R&D, common 2023
72 / 147
R&D, latest available 2021-2023
88 / 147

Controls: Original controls: GDP/internet 2024, population 2025. HC 23: Human capital, 2023. Jobs 23: Services employment, 2023. R&D 23: R&D, common 2023. R&D latest: R&D, latest available 2021-2023.

Germany: in the 121-country main sample

Controls: present / HC 23: present / Jobs 23: present / R&D 23: present / R&D latest: present. R&D actual year: 2023.

62 economies: Original controls: GDP/internet 2024, population 2025; Human capital, 2023; Services employment, 2023; R&D, common 2023; R&D, latest available 2021-2023. Included in the primary model.

Countries in the inspected combination; select one to carry it through the story.

The missing economies are not an even sample

43 / 44 high income economies retained (97.7%).

15 / 23 low income economies retained (65.2%).

31 / 37 lower middle income economies retained (83.8%).

0 / 2 unassigned economies retained (0.0%).

32 / 41 upper middle income economies retained (78.0%).

Inspect all 147 economies, inputs and observation years
Missing stays unavailable. GDP PPP per person and internet use: 2024. Human capital and services: 2023. Recent R&D values retain their actual year.
EconomyMain modelGDP PPP / personInternet / %Human capitalServices / %R&D / % GDPR&D year
Excluded2,23616.09Unavailable29.50UnavailableUnavailable
Included9,96440.701.545040.53UnavailableUnavailable
Included26,70285.863.018546.310.20002022
Included79,344100.003.304367.701.49472021
Included30,47589.673.160671.220.60112023
Included22,85681.343.163451.460.18212023
Included72,11896.133.608678.171.85782021
Included75,77494.923.450071.163.25522023
Excluded25,14690.44Unavailable49.460.18162023
Included1,1938.601.484511.33UnavailableUnavailable
Included74,22595.783.170778.773.27242023
Included4,44133.982.043239.84UnavailableUnavailable
Included2,90128.251.379530.740.09852023
Included9,66153.422.154137.01UnavailableUnavailable
Included41,97082.443.262864.160.79222023
Excluded25,14886.10Unavailable51.800.18852023
Excluded33,16694.26Unavailable58.910.57352023
Included12,89679.703.085954.810.06312021
Included22,37184.463.358471.631.19382023
Included20,61257.463.053566.21UnavailableUnavailable
Included1,26513.781.602620.62UnavailableUnavailable
Included65,48394.353.768879.511.81052023
Included97,46897.343.745077.843.22182023
Included36,07195.593.239271.690.39212022
Included27,14092.002.749845.772.57732023
Included7,68041.431.743239.13UnavailableUnavailable
Included5,59746.261.946742.53UnavailableUnavailable
Included1,82319.671.829032.50UnavailableUnavailable
Included7,00447.252.176043.270.38342022
Included22,43979.352.682565.61UnavailableUnavailable
Included31,55287.172.700266.380.33742023
ExcludedUnavailable70.48Unavailable66.780.39212023
Included57,62587.693.782760.591.83372023
Included73,95793.503.705272.393.15392023
Included80,93899.773.666578.723.04842023
Included27,58291.002.926073.44UnavailableUnavailable
Included17,64677.422.508958.190.37792023
Included15,84877.172.825452.54UnavailableUnavailable
Included19,12274.652.857452.511.03362023
ExcludedUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable31.04UnavailableUnavailable
Included58,06495.763.073176.481.49362023
Included3,29221.941.542331.46UnavailableUnavailable
Included65,13793.723.599675.023.09382023
Included62,52588.653.312478.252.17832023
Included21,54168.723.035452.41UnavailableUnavailable
Included62,83995.473.846483.212.67612023
Excluded27,48783.80Unavailable48.260.25082023
Included8,05172.182.658746.36UnavailableUnavailable
Excluded4,57233.30Unavailable37.02UnavailableUnavailable
Included3,48149.491.493052.34UnavailableUnavailable
Excluded3,09329.78Unavailable28.14UnavailableUnavailable
Included44,17186.273.243372.571.49432023
Included14,39360.222.040647.680.00612023
ExcludedUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Included80,27183.002.760058.51UnavailableUnavailable
Included7,50358.622.577655.23UnavailableUnavailable
Included49,55183.633.811367.901.38622023
Included3,16947.861.800644.21UnavailableUnavailable
Included48,54093.783.555064.541.37752023
Included16,47272.782.344549.27UnavailableUnavailable
Included10,71964.942.283331.46UnavailableUnavailable
Included140,77997.193.269078.091.58832023
Included19,90385.342.765850.920.72672021
Included14,48581.472.391865.020.04072021
Included57,27888.183.986083.766.34592023
Included62,29389.223.265169.771.37942023
Included12,90990.112.645068.21UnavailableUnavailable
Included11,91695.622.876880.35UnavailableUnavailable
Included54,15685.543.656573.293.44132023
Included40,95093.393.391368.170.14452023
Included6,65034.982.606940.680.80432023
Included8,20892.033.568157.230.05412023
Included7,98268.482.058037.13UnavailableUnavailable
Included61,05197.903.873770.684.94352023
Included53,11999.752.295672.850.09552023
Included9,79065.592.011523.36UnavailableUnavailable
Excluded11,91780.63Unavailable76.36UnavailableUnavailable
Included1,87432.232.030449.21UnavailableUnavailable
Excluded14,32581.95Unavailable71.12UnavailableUnavailable
Included15,70154.592.929547.280.10512022
Included3,07151.802.022535.490.09452023
Included55,69989.163.408169.131.04982023
Included10,43091.202.032447.65UnavailableUnavailable
Included18,66277.373.184735.560.22112023
Included1,88918.681.722920.27UnavailableUnavailable
Included25,82083.122.852563.000.26752023
Included3,32236.801.481227.510.14742023
Excluded6,006Unavailable1.939736.010.02312023
Included19,17385.122.759848.980.08372022
Included1,70820.531.291420.55UnavailableUnavailable
Included7,37945.781.850951.77UnavailableUnavailable
Included1,86018.962.137227.37UnavailableUnavailable
Included38,83698.023.205764.251.01212022
Included11,69864.872.306560.670.64642022
Included2,04415.561.258316.60UnavailableUnavailable
Included9,10041.212.134448.47UnavailableUnavailable
Included8,72161.402.405352.08UnavailableUnavailable
Included85,21897.013.456183.862.26722023
Included105,65799.003.754478.891.85142023
Included5,74646.321.933345.20UnavailableUnavailable
Included55,79493.523.378873.851.54852023
Excluded41,80195.25Unavailable54.140.37532023
Included6,26357.251.762338.070.16402023
Included41,43072.772.965767.830.15802023
Included17,88281.962.794659.680.17612023
Included11,81467.262.956059.02UnavailableUnavailable
Excluded4,88718.81Unavailable54.39UnavailableUnavailable
Included51,26388.583.489661.981.55532023
Included52,51388.492.609171.421.69492023
Included18,63281.582.735064.820.14122023
Included126,71398.093.144159.350.68062021
Included49,07791.293.353654.920.51662023
Included47,68694.363.342668.600.93522023
Included3,78531.701.876333.900.78152023
Included71,936100.002.988374.200.49492023
Excluded2,119Unavailable1.6547UnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Included5,09760.121.717346.28UnavailableUnavailable
Included153,16194.383.399386.081.80822022
Included3,52725.101.726543.23UnavailableUnavailable
Included13,25866.482.376762.470.10152023
Excluded1,60427.94Unavailable51.78UnavailableUnavailable
Included32,83287.693.534153.920.87822023
ExcludedUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable34.57UnavailableUnavailable
Excluded21,832UnavailableUnavailable66.64UnavailableUnavailable
Included47,84789.833.893962.191.03362023
Included57,57190.763.655663.862.13392023
Included71,22295.533.502980.953.59982023
ExcludedUnavailableUnavailable2.703257.680.04222022
Excluded2,76712.63Unavailable19.44UnavailableUnavailable
Included3,81539.482.131243.01UnavailableUnavailable
Included24,90990.872.861747.860.93632023
Included5,41455.793.111338.12UnavailableUnavailable
Excluded21,026UnavailableUnavailable48.660.09002023
Included14,54276.502.839853.84UnavailableUnavailable
Included45,12387.312.622757.761.42222023
ExcludedUnavailableUnavailable3.5010UnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
Included4,22731.161.766726.79UnavailableUnavailable
Included3,2788.952.691726.920.43832023
Excluded18,63682.473.3247Unavailable0.32212023
Included36,59791.993.012272.640.70202023
Included86,17094.693.829879.093.44722023
Excluded12,51889.51Unavailable49.740.11092023
ExcludedUnavailable76.683.099273.49UnavailableUnavailable
Included16,38884.152.744439.550.41462023
Included15,47978.362.903573.930.61482022
Included4,22117.102.773634.11UnavailableUnavailable
Included5,93341.642.820533.16UnavailableUnavailable
All five display-set memberships and separate estimation samples. Source-set totals overlap; the main model requires the first three sets.
Economy / ISO3Income groupControlsHC 23Jobs 23R&D 23R&D latestControls + HCMainRecent R&D model2023 R&D modelMissing main inputs
Afghanistan / AFGLow incomePresentAbsentPresentAbsentAbsentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedhc
Angola / AGOLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Albania / ALBUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedExcludedNone
United Arab Emirates / AREHigh incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedExcludedNone
Argentina / ARGUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Armenia / ARMUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Australia / AUSHigh incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedExcludedNone
Austria / AUTHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Azerbaijan / AZEUpper middle incomePresentAbsentPresentPresentPresentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedhc
Burundi / BDILow incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Belgium / BELHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Benin / BENLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Burkina Faso / BFALow incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Bangladesh / BGDLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Bulgaria / BGRHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Bosnia And Herzegovina / BIHUpper middle incomePresentAbsentPresentPresentPresentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedhc
Belarus / BLRUpper middle incomePresentAbsentPresentPresentPresentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedhc
Bolivia / BOLLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedExcludedNone
Brazil / BRAUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Botswana / BWAUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Central African Republic / CAFLow incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Canada / CANHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Switzerland / CHEHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Chile / CHLHigh incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedExcludedNone
China / CHNUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Cote D'Ivoire / CIVLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Cameroon / CMRLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Congo (DRC) / CODLow incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Congo / COGLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedExcludedNone
Colombia / COLUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Costa Rica / CRIHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Cuba / CUBUpper middle incomeAbsentAbsentPresentPresentPresentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedgdp, hc
Czech Republic / CZEHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Germany / DEUHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Denmark / DNKHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Dominican Republic / DOMUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Algeria / DZAUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Ecuador / ECUUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Egypt / EGYLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Eritrea / ERILow incomeAbsentAbsentPresentAbsentAbsentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedgdp, internet, hc
Spain / ESPHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Ethiopia / ETHLow incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Finland / FINHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
France / FRAHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Gabon / GABUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
United Kingdom / GBRHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Georgia / GEOUpper middle incomePresentAbsentPresentPresentPresentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedhc
Ghana / GHALower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Guinea / GINLower middle incomePresentAbsentPresentAbsentAbsentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedhc
Gambia / GMBLow incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Guinea-Bissau / GNBLow incomePresentAbsentPresentAbsentAbsentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedhc
Greece / GRCHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Guatemala / GTMUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
French Guiana / GUFUnassignedAbsentAbsentAbsentAbsentAbsentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedgdp, internet, pop2025, hc, services_employment
Guyana / GUYHigh incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Honduras / HNDLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Croatia / HRVHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Haiti / HTILower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Hungary / HUNHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Indonesia / IDNUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
India / INDLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Ireland / IRLHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Iran / IRNUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedExcludedNone
Iraq / IRQUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedExcludedNone
Israel / ISRHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Italy / ITAHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Jamaica / JAMUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Jordan / JORUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Japan / JPNHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Kazakhstan / KAZUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Kenya / KENLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Kyrgyzstan / KGZLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Cambodia / KHMLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
South Korea / KORHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Kuwait / KWTHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Laos / LAOLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Lebanon / LBNLower middle incomePresentAbsentPresentAbsentAbsentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedhc
Liberia / LBRLow incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Libya / LBYUpper middle incomePresentAbsentPresentAbsentAbsentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedhc
Sri Lanka / LKAUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedExcludedNone
Lesotho / LSOLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Lithuania / LTUHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Morocco / MARLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Moldova / MDAUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Madagascar / MDGLow incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Mexico / MEXUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Mali / MLILow incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Myanmar / MMRLower middle incomeAbsentPresentPresentPresentPresentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedinternet
Mongolia / MNGUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedExcludedNone
Mozambique / MOZLow incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Mauritania / MRTLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Malawi / MWILow incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Malaysia / MYSUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedExcludedNone
Namibia / NAMLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedExcludedNone
Niger / NERLow incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Nigeria / NGALower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Nicaragua / NICLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Netherlands / NLDHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Norway / NORHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Nepal / NPLLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
New Zealand / NZLHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Oman / OMNHigh incomePresentAbsentPresentPresentPresentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedhc
Pakistan / PAKLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Panama / PANHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Peru / PERUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Philippines / PHLUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Papua New Guinea / PNGLower middle incomePresentAbsentPresentAbsentAbsentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedhc
Poland / POLHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Portugal / PRTHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Paraguay / PRYUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Qatar / QATHigh incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedExcludedNone
Romania / ROUHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Russia / RUSHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Rwanda / RWALow incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Saudi Arabia / SAUHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Sudan / SDNLow incomeAbsentPresentAbsentAbsentAbsentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedinternet, services_employment
Senegal / SENLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Singapore / SGPHigh incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedExcludedNone
Sierra Leone / SLELow incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
El Salvador / SLVUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Somalia / SOMLow incomePresentAbsentPresentAbsentAbsentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedhc
Serbia / SRBUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
South Sudan / SSDLow incomeAbsentAbsentPresentAbsentAbsentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedgdp, internet, hc
Suriname / SURUpper middle incomeAbsentAbsentPresentAbsentAbsentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedinternet, hc
Slovakia / SVKHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Slovenia / SVNHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Sweden / SWEHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Syria / SYRLow incomeAbsentPresentPresentAbsentPresentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedgdp, internet
Chad / TCDLow incomePresentAbsentPresentAbsentAbsentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedhc
Togo / TGOLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Thailand / THAUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Tajikistan / TJKLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Turkmenistan / TKMUpper middle incomeAbsentAbsentPresentPresentPresentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedinternet, hc
Tunisia / TUNLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Türkiye / TURUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Taiwan / TWNUnassignedAbsentPresentAbsentAbsentAbsentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedgdp, internet, pop2025, services_employment
Tanzania / TZALower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Uganda / UGALow incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Ukraine / UKRUpper middle incomePresentPresentAbsentPresentPresentIncludedExcludedIncludedIncludedservices_employment
Uruguay / URYHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
United States / USAHigh incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
Uzbekistan / UZBLower middle incomePresentAbsentPresentPresentPresentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedhc
Venezuela / VENLower middle incomeAbsentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentExcludedExcludedExcludedExcludedgdp
Vietnam / VNMUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentPresentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedIncludedNone
South Africa / ZAFUpper middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentPresentIncludedIncludedIncludedExcludedNone
Zambia / ZMBLower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Zimbabwe / ZWELower middle incomePresentPresentPresentAbsentAbsentIncludedIncludedExcludedExcludedNone
Every original availability field. Recent means a non-missing 2021-2023 observation, not a common-year comparison. Actual covariate reference years are retained below.
Economyhuman capitalagriculture employmenteducation spendingemploymentgovernment consumptionindustry employmentmanufacturing value addedolder populationrdservices employmenttertiary attainmentunemploymentActual covariate years
Afghanistan2023 absent
Recent absent
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent absent
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent absent
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: Unavailable
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: Unavailable
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: Unavailable
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2021
unemployment: 2023
Angola2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent absent
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent absent
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2023
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: Unavailable
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: Unavailable
unemployment: 2023
Albania2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2023
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: 2022
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2023
unemployment: 2023
United Arab Emirates2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2021
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: 2021
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2023
unemployment: 2023
Argentina2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2023
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: 2023
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2022
unemployment: 2023
Armenia2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2023
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: 2023
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2022
unemployment: 2023
Australia2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2022
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: 2021
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2023
unemployment: 2023
Austria2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2022
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: 2023
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2023
unemployment: 2023
Azerbaijan2023 absent
Recent absent
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: Unavailable
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2023
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: 2023
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2023
unemployment: 2023
Burundi2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent absent
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent absent
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2021
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: Unavailable
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: Unavailable
unemployment: 2023
Belgium2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2022
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: 2023
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2023
unemployment: 2023
Benin2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent absent
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2023
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: Unavailable
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2022
unemployment: 2023
Burkina Faso2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2023
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: 2023
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2023
unemployment: 2023
Bangladesh2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent absent
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2023
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: Unavailable
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2023
unemployment: 2023
Bulgaria2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent absent
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2022
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: Unavailable
older population: 2023
rd: 2023
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2023
unemployment: 2023
Bosnia And Herzegovina2023 absent
Recent absent
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: Unavailable
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2023
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: 2023
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2023
unemployment: 2023
Belarus2023 absent
Recent absent
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent absent
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: Unavailable
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2023
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: 2023
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: Unavailable
unemployment: 2023
Bolivia2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2023
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: 2021
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2023
unemployment: 2023
Brazil2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2022
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: 2023
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2023
unemployment: 2023
Botswana2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent absent
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent absent
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: Unavailable
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: Unavailable
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2023
unemployment: 2023
Central African Republic2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent absent
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent absent
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2023
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: Unavailable
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: Unavailable
unemployment: 2023
Canada2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2022
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2022
older population: 2023
rd: 2023
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2021
unemployment: 2023
Switzerland2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2022
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: 2023
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2023
unemployment: 2023
Chile2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 absent
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
human capital: 2023
agriculture employment: 2023
education spending: 2022
employment: 2023
government consumption: 2023
industry employment: 2023
manufacturing value added: 2023
older population: 2023
rd: 2022
services employment: 2023
tertiary attainment: 2023
unemployment: 2023
China2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
2023 present
Recent present
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Cote D'Ivoire2023 present
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Cameroon2023 present
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Cuba2023 absent
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Czech Republic2023 present
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Algeria2023 present
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Ecuador2023 present
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Egypt2023 present
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Finland2023 present
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Gabon2023 present
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United Kingdom2023 present
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Georgia2023 absent
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Ghana2023 present
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Guinea2023 absent
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Gambia2023 present
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French Guiana2023 absent
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Guyana2023 present
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tertiary attainment: 2021
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Ireland2023 present
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rd: 2021
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rd: 2021
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tertiary attainment: 2021
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tertiary attainment: 2023
unemployment: 2023
Frozen 147-economy AI universe, original 2024 controls, PWT 11.0 and common-2023 WDI/ILO predictors. Every exclusive source-set intersection is counted once, including the all-missing pattern. Recent R&D observations retain their actual year. Open the Microsoft country data ↗

The 121-economy model is broad, but it is not the entire AI sample. Missing predictors remove 26 economies, and the loss is uneven across income groups. A clean regression table does not remove the selection problem. The availability matrix shows which observations support each extension and which country is absent from the main comparison.

The original audit's coverage statements remain useful, but one needs particular care: a 122-economy skills model is feasible; a common-2023 skills-and-services model contains 121. The separate 122-economy sensitivity retains Ukraine's actual 2021 services observation. Nothing missing is replaced by zero.

The same principle rules out a kitchen-sink regression containing every collected indicator. Education spending, attainment and R&D have different coverage. If an apparent coefficient change comes with a different country sample, the reader should be able to see both changes.

A separate extension / research and diffusion

Must a country invent AI to use it?

The available R&D measure can test a narrower association. It cannot measure AI invention.

Exhibit 08 / Conditional model

R&D and adoption: two explicitly different samples

Frozen evidence / exact values below

Recent 2021-2023 sample: 78 economies. R&D interquartile contrast +1.96 pp [0.24, 3.67]. Each extension has a baseline fitted on exactly its own countries.

Recent window / 78 economies

2021-2023, actual years retained

6 observations from 2021; 9 from 2022; 63 from 2023.

Standardized fitted share / %01020304001233.5Research & development / % GDP

At 1.761% of GDP: 26.28% standardized fitted adoption; conditional interval 24.61 to 27.95%. This is an average over 78 reference economies, not a selected country.

Common year / 63 economies

Only 2023 observations

A separate paired model, not a new state of the 121-country model.

Standardized fitted share / %01020304001233.5Research & development / % GDP

At 1.771% of GDP: 25.96% standardized fitted adoption; conditional interval 24.35 to 27.57%. This is an average over 63 reference economies, not a selected country.

Germany: 3.1539% of GDP in 2023; included in the focused extension. The selected-country indicator is not a point on either standardized curve.

The joined points are precomputed model evaluations over the observed predictor's 5th-to-95th-percentile range, not years or a historical path. Intervals are pointwise conditional model intervals, not a simultaneous band or source uncertainty. R&D covers all research, not AI invention.

Exact R&D curve and 78-economy estimation sample
Recent-window model. Standardized mean over its own reference sample.
R&D / % GDPFitted share / %Lower / %Upper / %
0.080624.134421.632426.6364
0.192624.273821.858326.6893
0.304724.413722.082626.7448
0.416724.554122.304926.8033
0.528824.695022.524826.8652
0.640824.836422.741826.9310
0.752924.978422.955427.0013
0.864925.120823.164927.0766
0.977025.263723.369727.1578
1.089025.407223.569027.2453
1.201125.551123.762127.3401
1.313125.695623.948327.4429
1.425225.840524.126727.5543
1.537225.986024.296727.6752
1.649326.131924.457627.8062
1.761426.278324.609127.9476
1.873426.425324.750828.0998
1.985526.572724.882528.2629
2.097526.720625.004428.4368
2.209626.869025.116728.6212
2.321627.017925.219928.8158
2.433727.167225.314429.0201
2.545727.317125.400929.2333
2.657827.467425.480029.4549
2.769827.618225.552329.6842
2.881927.769525.618529.9206
2.993927.921325.679130.1634
3.106028.073525.734730.4122
3.218028.226225.785930.6664
3.330128.379325.833130.9256
3.442128.533025.876631.1893
Actual R&D inputs in the selected model; published AI estimates are separate outcomes, not points on the standardized average curve.
EconomyR&D / % GDPActual yearMicrosoft June 2026 / %
Albania0.2000202219.20
United Arab Emirates1.4947202173.30
Argentina0.6011202323.40
Armenia0.182120237.70
Australia1.8578202140.70
Austria3.2552202335.40
Belgium3.2724202340.30
Burkina Faso0.0985202310.40
Bulgaria0.7922202330.70
Bolivia0.0631202113.30
Brazil1.1938202320.20
Canada1.8105202338.50
Switzerland3.2218202339.10
Chile0.3921202224.00
China2.5773202317.50
Congo0.383420229.10
Costa Rica0.3374202329.70
Czech Republic1.8337202331.20
Germany3.1539202332.30
Denmark3.0484202332.40
Algeria0.3779202313.80
Egypt1.0336202315.50
Spain1.4936202345.10
Finland3.0938202330.60
France2.1783202349.60
United Kingdom2.6761202343.70
Greece1.4943202321.50
Guatemala0.0061202317.30
Croatia1.3862202327.20
Hungary1.3775202333.30
Ireland1.5883202349.90
Iran0.7267202112.80
Iraq0.0407202113.00
Israel6.3459202338.70
Italy1.3794202331.40
Japan3.4413202324.70
Kazakhstan0.1445202316.90
Kenya0.804320238.90
Kyrgyzstan0.0541202310.00
South Korea4.9435202340.60
Kuwait0.0955202322.60
Sri Lanka0.105120227.60
Lesotho0.094520239.90
Lithuania1.0498202325.10
Moldova0.2211202319.10
Mexico0.2675202321.40
Mali0.1474202310.40
Mongolia0.0837202217.90
Malaysia1.0121202222.60
Namibia0.6464202215.40
Netherlands2.2672202343.50
Norway1.8514202349.40
New Zealand1.5485202344.10
Pakistan0.1640202311.90
Panama0.1580202324.20
Peru0.1761202317.30
Poland1.5553202332.30
Portugal1.6949202327.40
Paraguay0.1412202312.60
Qatar0.6806202143.50
Romania0.5166202318.00
Russia0.935220239.90
Rwanda0.781520237.60
Saudi Arabia0.4949202331.40
Singapore1.8082202264.30
El Salvador0.1015202320.10
Serbia0.8782202325.30
Slovakia1.0336202327.10
Slovenia2.1339202330.10
Sweden3.5998202337.30
Thailand0.9363202313.40
Türkiye1.4222202318.90
Uganda0.438320238.00
Ukraine0.322120239.50
Uruguay0.7020202325.70
United States3.4472202333.00
Vietnam0.4146202327.90
South Africa0.6148202223.90
Own separate-sample fractional-logit calculations. Income, connectivity and human capital are retained in each matched baseline. R&D is all-research expenditure/GDP, not AI invention. Connected points are model evaluations rather than historical observations; each panel averages over its own reference economies. Open the Microsoft country data ↗

The frozen data support 78 economies with income, connectivity, human capital and a recent R&D observation. Of these R&D values, 63 are from 2023, nine from 2022 and six from 2021. A second comparison uses only the 63 common-2023 cases. Each window has its own matched baseline, so a predictor is never credited for a change in the sample.

In the recent-window model, moving from 0.28% to 1.81% of GDP spent on research and development corresponds to 1.96 percentage points more fitted adoption, with a conditional interval from 0.24 to 3.67. The common-2023 contrast is 2.56 points, with an interval from 0.79 to 4.33. Both are descriptive associations in selected samples.

These are expenditures on research generally, not AI patents, frontier-model development or an identified capacity to invent AI. A positive coefficient cannot tell us that domestic invention is necessary for adoption. That would require more specific evidence about research, access, firms and diffusion.

What follows

Ask where capability meets opportunity.

For a policymaker or employer, the useful implication is to distinguish capability from opportunity. Large education and occupational gaps justify examining where people encounter useful applications and what support they need. This study does not establish that raising a national schooling index, moving workers into services or increasing R&D spending will cause adoption to rise.

The next credible test would observe relevant tasks, training, access and use for comparable people over time. Until then, the evidence supports a more exact question than whether skills matter: which skills, for which tasks, among which people, and relative to which constraint?

Open the model / retain the boundary

Sources, assumptions and reproducibility.

Outcome: Microsoft's frozen June 2026 AI User Share, as published in the Q2 2026 diffusion release. Predictors: 2024 GDP per capita at purchasing-power parity and internet use from the original evidence; 2023 human capital from the canonical plain PWT 11.0 workbook; 2023 services employment from the frozen WDI/ILO extract. The 2025 working-age population is retained for a same-row weighting sensitivity.

Estimator: equal-economy fractional-logit quasi-maximum likelihood. All four primary specifications use 121 economies. Approximate 95% intervals use a score-sandwich covariance clustered on identical published four-period trajectories, with 103 clusters and a finite-cluster correction. The model interval conditions on the supplied outcomes and covariates; it excludes unknown telemetry, source-estimate and covariate uncertainty.

Model contrasts average the predicted difference between a predictor's 25th and 75th percentiles over the reference countries. Main and sensitivity contrasts retain the same 121-country reference distribution, even when estimation weights or estimation samples differ. The R&D and manufacturing extensions use their own matched references and are labeled separately.

Held-out error removes an entire identical-path group at a time before predicting its members. It is neither a random country split nor a temporal forecast. The reproducibility outputs also record coefficient covariance, convergence, design conditioning and the largest prediction changes after leaving each group out.

Eurostat values come from the frozen 2025 isoc_ai_iaiu extract. Education profiles use ages 25-64; occupational profiles use ages 16-74 within the stated groups. Source flags remain attached. The u filter excludes low-reliability cells only, not every possible flag. The supplied group cells do not contain the denominators or covariance needed to reconstruct sampling intervals.

The manufacturing extension compares two models on 116 economies. Its added manufacturing-value-added contrast is -0.06 percentage points, with a conditional interval from -2.17 to 2.05. Manufacturing value added/GDP and services employment/total employment are not a single compositional denominator.

The analysis is exploratory, not preregistered. The saved analytical contract followed initial exploratory fits. Human capital uses the canonical workbook's full precision rather than the rounded growth-panel proxy. The older exports-plus-signed-imports trade field is excluded, as are any zero imputations. Fiscal composition, state effectiveness and interest burdens remain proposed research, not completed tests.

The accepted source audit was frozen on September 23, 2026. No live API refresh is used in this build. Four small March CSV/report discrepancies documented by the original story remain governed by its frozen CSV; no new June correction was required. The original 136-economy model was reproduced before extending it.

Model diagnostics, manufacturing and both R&D samples
Errors in percentage points. Compare predictor additions only on matching country samples.
SpecificationEconomiesPath clustersRMSEHeld-out cluster RMSE
Income + connectivity1211037.2177.455
Add human capital1211037.2037.515
Add services employment1211036.8027.093
Add both1211036.8027.155
Skills + work on manufacturing sample1161006.904Not run
Add manufacturing value added1161006.904Not run
Controls + skills / recent78777.397Not run
Add R&D / recent78777.328Not run
Controls + skills / 202363626.392Not run
Add R&D / 202363626.223Not run

The quasi-likelihood estimator does not minimize squared errors, so adding a predictor can slightly increase the in-sample RMSE. Separate-sample diagnostics cannot be read as the impact of adding a predictor to the 121-economy fit.

I work at Microsoft. This is my analysis of publicly available research, not an official Microsoft publication.

  1. Global AI Diffusion country data ↗

    Microsoft. H1 2025 (June 2025 endpoint); H2 2025 (reporting label only); March and June 2026. MIT.

  2. Q2 2026 report, p5 aggregates ↗

    Microsoft. Q2 2026, published September 2026; March–June 2026 comparison. Repository MIT; publisher rights retained.

  3. Measuring AI Diffusion ↗

    Misra et al. / arXiv. Technical method, version 1, November 2025. CC BY 4.0.

  4. GDP per capita PPP, current international dollars, 2024 ↗

    World Bank WDI. 2024. CC BY 4.0, subject to source-specific third-party conditions.

  5. Individuals using internet, percent population, 2024 ↗

    World Bank WDI. 2024. CC BY 4.0, subject to source-specific third-party conditions.

  6. Population ages 15–64, total, 2024–2025 ↗

    World Bank WDI. 2024–2025 (2025 weights used for both adoption endpoints). CC BY 4.0, subject to source-specific third-party conditions.

  7. Individuals using generative AI, isoc_ai_iaiu ↗

    Eurostat. 2025 survey; use in the previous three months; national fieldwork varies. Eurostat reuse policy / attribution.

  8. Penn World Table 11.0 ↗

    Groningen Growth and Development Centre. 2023 human capital. CC BY 4.0.

  9. Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate) ↗

    ILO Modelled Estimates database (ILOEST), International Labour Organization (ILO), uri: https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/bulk/, publisher: ILOSTAT, type: external database, date accessed: January 17, 2026. 2023; labelled latest-2021-2023 sensitivities. World Bank CC BY 4.0 subject to indicator-specific source conditions.

  10. Government expenditure on education, total (% of GDP) ↗

    Data API, UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), uri: https://databrowser.uis.unesco.org/resources, note: The data are obtained through the UIS API. Detailed documentation is available at: https://api.uis.unesco.org/api/public/documentation/, publisher: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS), date accessed: 2026-03-19, date published: 2026-02. 2023; labelled latest-2021-2023 sensitivities. World Bank CC BY 4.0 subject to indicator-specific source conditions.

  11. Employment to population ratio, 15+, total (%) (modeled ILO estimate) ↗

    ILO Modelled Estimates database (ILOEST), International Labour Organization (ILO), uri: https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/bulk/, publisher: ILOSTAT, type: external database, date accessed: January 17, 2026. 2023; labelled latest-2021-2023 sensitivities. World Bank CC BY 4.0 subject to indicator-specific source conditions.

  12. General government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP) ↗

    Country official statistics, National Statistical Offices (NSOs); National Accounts data files, Central Banks; Staff estimates, World Bank (WB). 2023; labelled latest-2021-2023 sensitivities. World Bank CC BY 4.0 subject to indicator-specific source conditions.

  13. Employment in industry (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate) ↗

    ILO Modelled Estimates database (ILOEST), International Labour Organization (ILO), uri: https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/bulk/, publisher: ILOSTAT, type: external database, date accessed: January 17, 2026. 2023; labelled latest-2021-2023 sensitivities. World Bank CC BY 4.0 subject to indicator-specific source conditions.

  14. Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP) ↗

    Country official statistics, National Statistical Offices (NSOs); National Accounts data files, Central Banks; Staff estimates, World Bank (WB). 2023; labelled latest-2021-2023 sensitivities. World Bank CC BY 4.0 subject to indicator-specific source conditions.

  15. Population ages 65 and above (% of total population) ↗

    World Population Prospects, United Nations (UN), publisher: UN Population Division. 2023; labelled latest-2021-2023 sensitivities. World Bank CC BY 4.0 subject to indicator-specific source conditions.

  16. Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) ↗

    Stat Bulk Data Download Service, UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), uri: https://databrowser.uis.unesco.org/resources/bulk, publisher: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS), date accessed: 2025-03-26, date published: 2025-02. 2023; labelled latest-2021-2023 sensitivities. World Bank CC BY 4.0 subject to indicator-specific source conditions.

  17. Employment in services (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate) ↗

    ILO Modelled Estimates database (ILOEST), International Labour Organization (ILO), uri: https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/bulk/, publisher: ILOSTAT, type: external database, date accessed: January 17, 2026. 2023; labelled latest-2021-2023 sensitivities. World Bank CC BY 4.0 subject to indicator-specific source conditions.

  18. Educational attainment, at least completed short-cycle tertiary, population 25+, total (%) (cumulative) ↗

    Data API, UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), uri: https://databrowser.uis.unesco.org/resources, note: The data are obtained through the UIS API. Detailed documentation is available at: https://api.uis.unesco.org/api/public/documentation/, publisher: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS), type: Bulk file (csv), date accessed: 2026-03-19, date published: 2026-02. 2023; labelled latest-2021-2023 sensitivities. World Bank CC BY 4.0 subject to indicator-specific source conditions.

  19. Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate) ↗

    ILO Modelled Estimates database (ILOEST), International Labour Organization (ILO), uri: https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/bulk/, publisher: ILOSTAT, type: external database, date accessed: January 17, 2026. 2023; labelled latest-2021-2023 sensitivities. World Bank CC BY 4.0 subject to indicator-specific source conditions.

Frozen-source calculations reproduce offline. The review package retains the original source identities, model code, complete country values, conditional intervals, exact survey cells and documented corrections. No new source download is needed to run the portable analysis.