Data story · 31 August 2026
Canada Is Flying Again.
Just Less Toward the United States.
Total screenings have moved above 2019. The U.S. market has not kept pace with domestic and non-U.S. international travel.
The convenient explanation
Canadian aviation is above 2019. Therefore every market must have recovered.
That inference disappears as soon as the aggregate is split.
In July 2026, screenings at the eight airports in the CATSA series were 9.3% above July 2019. Domestic screenings were 13.1% higher and other international screenings 12.5% higher. U.S. transborder screenings were 0.4% lower.
One aviation recovery became three different market stories.
Each observation is compared with the same calendar month in 2019. Select a market to bring its path forward.
Exact July values and download
| Market | July 2019 | July 2026 | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 5,421,895 | 5,924,621 | 109.3 |
| Domestic | 2,544,723 | 2,876,849 | 113.1 |
| U.S. transborder | 1,461,996 | 1,456,085 | 99.6 |
| Other international | 1,415,176 | 1,591,687 | 112.5 |
Source: Statistics Canada/CATSA, table 23-10-0312-01; author calculations. Eight airports.
Act I · Read the market
Recovery did not stop. It separated.
The pandemic collapse is common to all four series. The later paths are not. By 2024, transborder travel had briefly moved above its 2019 benchmark. From early 2025, it weakened while domestic and other international screening counts remained above baseline.
July 2026 total: 5.92 million screenings. That is a recovered aggregate assembled from an unrecovered U.S. segment and two stronger non-U.S. segments.
Non-U.S. growth outweighed the transborder loss 2.9 to one.
Change in screened passengers, January–July 2024 to January–July 2026.
Exact bridge and download
| Market | Screening change |
|---|---|
| Domestic | 1,607,584 |
| Other international | 725,838 |
| Transborder | -816,665 |
| Net change | 1,516,757 |
Source: Statistics Canada/CATSA; January–July totals, eight airports.
Act II · Test substitution
The arithmetic is consistent with diversification away from the U.S.
Between January–July 2024 and the same period in 2026, domestic screenings gained 1.61 million and other international screenings gained 0.73 million. U.S. transborder screenings lost 0.82 million.
The combined non-U.S. gain was 2.33 million—2.9 times the transborder loss. That is enough to lift total screenings by 1.52 million while shrinking the U.S. share.
The transborder decline was broad, not a Toronto-only effect.
January–July 2024 to January–July 2026. Bars show percentage change in U.S. transborder screenings.
Exact airport values and download
| Airport | Domestic | U.S. transborder | Other international |
|---|---|---|---|
| YWG · Winnipeg | +13.3% | -21.0% | +11.3% |
| YEG · Edmonton | +9.2% | -19.7% | -6.2% |
| YUL · Montréal | +7.9% | -11.1% | +3.6% |
| YVR · Vancouver | +12.5% | -9.4% | +15.1% |
| YYZ · Toronto | +13.2% | -8.4% | +6.9% |
| YYC · Calgary | +11.1% | -7.4% | +11.5% |
| YOW · Ottawa | +10.9% | -2.1% | +23.8% |
| YHZ · Halifax | +9.6% | +11.4% | +15.4% |
Source: Statistics Canada/CATSA; author calculations.
Act III · Check the map
Seven airports point in the same direction.
Transborder screenings fell at Winnipeg, Edmonton, Montréal, Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary, and Ottawa. Halifax was the exception.
Toronto accounted for the largest absolute decline, but the pattern survives without it. The evidence is geographically broad; its intensity varies.
Act IV · Recent tensions
Politics supplies context. It does not supply identification.
Canada–U.S. tariff and sovereignty tensions escalated in 2025, alongside public calls to buy Canadian and travel within Canada. The screening series turns down in the U.S. segment during the same broad period.
Verdict · what the data tell us
Canada’s aviation recovery has become less U.S.-weighted.
- The total is healthy. July screenings reached 109.3% of their July 2019 level.
- The composition changed. The transborder share fell from 27.6% to 23.9% between January–July 2024 and 2026.
- The offset was real. Domestic and other international gains were 2.9 times the U.S. loss.
Methods · concise by design
One table. Two comparisons.
The recovery chart divides each airport-market-month count by the corresponding month in 2019. The bridge and airport panels compare January–July 2026 with January–July 2024, avoiding an incomplete full-year comparison.
Airport screenings are summed across Toronto, Vancouver, Montréal, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, Winnipeg, and Halifax. Counts are security screenings, not unique passengers or origin–destination trips.