ESS-13 / Belonging & identity
What predicts the closed door?
Which predicts anti-immigration attitudes better: economic insecurity, education or human values?
PlannedWave 2Research question, not a published result
The question
Compare transparent predictor groups on held-out countries or country-rounds, not only on the data used to fit the model.
What the analysis will test
- Primary quantity
- Out-of-sample predictive contribution of predefined feature groups.
- Evidence
- ESS rounds 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. Modules: core, human values.
- Primary comparison
- Predictor comparison with validation uncertainty. The final form depends on validated data and uncertainty.
- Publication threshold
- Pinned source editions, reviewed questionnaire comparability, survey-design-aware intervals, disclosure checks and reproducible aggregate outputs.
What this evidence does not prove
Predictive importance is not causal importance and may not transfer to countries outside the validation design.
The ESS interviews different probability samples in each round. It measures structural differences and change, not today's mood or the same individuals over time.
Sources and next release
This page reserves the permanent address for ESS-13. Estimates and downloads will appear here after the data, statistical, editorial and reproducibility checks pass.