CLIM-10 / SPM.A / Research primer
Do stronger readiness scores coincide with health adaptation planning?
How do national adaptation-readiness profiles compare with reported health adaptation planning among countries covered by comparable survey rounds?
NASA/Chris Williams. Paris and the Seine photographed from the International Space Station on April 4, 2026; urban context, not a heat map. Contextual image; not used to estimate a trend. Image credits.
The question
An index of enabling conditions and a reported adaptation plan measure different stages of preparedness. Their agreement, or disagreement, is the empirical question rather than an assumed implementation gap.
Why it matters
Governments can have formal plans without delivery capacity, while broad readiness rankings may overlook sector-specific preparation or reporting gaps.
The AR6 anchor
AR6 assesses progress in adaptation planning and implementation alongside continuing gaps; institutional frameworks and coordinated governance enable effective climate action (high confidence).
AR6 Synthesis Report (2023) / A.3; C.6.
Evidence and comparison
- Unit of analysis
- Country-survey-round, never an invented annual planning panel.
- Baseline and denominator
- Match readiness to the survey year or nearest earlier observation within a declared lag. A missing survey response is not evidence that a plan is absent.
- First descriptive test
- Compare readiness distributions for reported planning categories, showing respondents and nonrespondents separately and retaining the survey's exact definition of a plan.
- Deeper analysis
- Inspect governance and social components separately; test sensitivity to lag allowance and repeat respondents. Stop the cross-country comparison if country-level responses cannot be exported.
- Attribution status
- descriptive observation
- Uncertainty
- Survey nonresponse and changing questions may dominate apparent differences. Index precision does not establish how well plans are funded, implemented or evaluated.
Principal sources
- ND-GAIN Country Index
Readiness score; Economic, governance and social readiness components.
Target 2015-2023; release and matched-year verification pending. Candidate source; import and publication checks are still required. - Lancet Countdown
Reported national health adaptation planning status; Survey year and response coverage, where exportable.
Target 2021-2024 survey rounds; comparable questions and country export checks pending. Candidate source; import and publication checks are still required.
Alternative explanations
- Survey participation
- Self-reporting incentives
- Plan definitions
- Administrative capacity
The visual argument
Provisional: readiness distribution by reported planning status with survey-round selection; annotate response counts, missing categories and any permissible matching lag.
- Readiness-component comparison
- Survey response coverage
- Repeat-respondent sensitivity
- Plan-definition evidence table
What these data do not show
- A plan's reported existence is not proof of delivery or effectiveness.
- This shortlist does not provide a comparable project-outcome evaluation.
Reproducibility and next release
Plan src/build.mjs and data/processed/health-planning.csv from preserved data/raw survey exports; provenance checks will enforce matching lags, response categories, question comparability, source hashes and reuse permissions.
- After approval: adaptation-planning study
- Article and survey methods
- Responsive figures and exact table
- 16:9 hero and launch copy
- Optional PDF carousel
- Permitted exports and coverage CSV