ESS-03 / The social contract
When the economy loses legitimacy
At what point does economic dissatisfaction become democratic dissatisfaction?
PlannedWave 1Research question, not a published result
The question
Test whether the relationship bends at a threshold, rather than assuming each step of economic discontent has the same political meaning.
What the analysis will test
- Primary quantity
- Survey-weighted association between economic and democratic satisfaction, allowing nonlinearities.
- Evidence
- ESS rounds 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. Modules: core.
- Primary comparison
- Legitimacy curve with uncertainty. The final form depends on validated data and uncertainty.
- Publication threshold
- Pinned source editions, reviewed questionnaire comparability, survey-design-aware intervals, disclosure checks and reproducible aggregate outputs.
What this evidence does not prove
A cross-sectional threshold is an association, not evidence that economic dissatisfaction causes democratic disaffection.
The ESS interviews different probability samples in each round. It measures structural differences and change, not today's mood or the same individuals over time.
Sources and next release
This page reserves the permanent address for ESS-03. Estimates and downloads will appear here after the data, statistical, editorial and reproducibility checks pass.